精算学与精算考试SocietyofActuaries.ppt

精算学与 精算考试 （Society of Actuaries）,2004级本科生 2006年12月15日 北京大学,愉快而紧张的精算之夜！,Agenda-提纲,精算学（Science） 职业-精算师（Profession） 精算考试（Certification） FAQ,精算学,定义 起源 内容 理论+应用,定义,研究未来的不确定的损失对当前经营的财务影响 关键词 未来-时间性 不确定性-随机性 财务-现实性,起源,生命表- 人寿保险 保险业的发展 金融业的发展,内容,数学、统计基础 抽象的数量关系 逻辑分析 建模 经济、金融基础 理论、理念、思想方法 知识,理论+应用,理论 风险模型 客观风险：概率分布 风险偏好：效用 度量的研究 应用 定价 评估,职业-精算师 精算学和精算考试介绍-2006年12月15日SOA_Brand.wmv,Whats an actuary?-background,The future is full of uncertainty. Some of the events that can happen are undesirable. “Risk“ is the possibility that an undesirable event will occur.,The impact of undesirable events can be both emotional and financial. Reducing the likelihood of these events helps relieve emotional pain. But some events, such as death, cannot be totally avoided. So, reducing their financial impact is very important.,Whats an actuary?,Actuaries are experts in: evaluating the likelihood of future events, designing creative ways to reduce the likelihood of undesirable events, decreasing the impact of undesirable events that do occur.,Actuaries are the leading professionals in finding ways to manage risk. It takes a combination of strong analytical skills, business knowledge and understanding of human behavior to design and manage programs that control risk.,Actuaries love what they do. Their work is intellectually challenging and they are very well-paid. Actuaries are key players in the management team of the companies that employ them.,In a fast-changing world, with new risks and the need for ever-more creative ways to tackle them, there is the constant opportunity for personal and professional growth in an actuarial career, and the pleasure of life-long learning. Most actuaries work in a pleasant environment, alongside other professionals, and enjoy the respect of their peers,Actuaries are the analytical backbone of our society's financial security programs. They are the brains behind the financial safeguards we have implemented in our personal lives, so we can go about our daily lives without worrying too much about what the future may hold for us. These are the safeguards that protect us from life's catastrophes.,The insight into risk that actuaries have also helps to ensure that our savings are working hard for us, so that everything we love and cherish can grow and flourish. The work of actuaries benefits all of us.,What is risk and how do actuaries manage risk?,Every person and organization faces risk, and it comes in many forms. Actuaries contribution to society's psychological, physical and economic well-being is immense. If the risk management programs actuaries develop don't exist, our economic growth would be greatly impacted.,Here are a few examples:,身故风险？ 每个人的生命价值对自己而言都是一样的 吴老师 你 如何对待？8年内 储蓄、投资 无所谓 风险评估 吴老师：43岁11.017 学生：21岁2.714 4倍的保费,Some popular techniques include:,Offsetting one risk with another.,Under certain circumstances, two harmful events might possess the characteristic that when the likelihood of one goes up, the likelihood of the other goes down. Thus, if we know that when coffee prices go up, soda prices go down, we might want to invest in both coffee and soda stocks, to manage our risk.,Risk is a matter of perspective,What might be harmful to one party, might be good for another. For example, when the value of the dollar goes down against the French Franc, that might be bad for an American business, but favorable for a French business. By trading off the consequences of an undesirable event with another party who is affected favorably, both parties are made better off.,Mathematical theory shows that the greatest relief from risk (and consequently, the greatest increase in peace of mind) comes from eliminating the consequences of events that are very unlikely, but result in very big losses. Thus, families should think about what might happen if the breadwinner dies, their house burns down, or they lose all of their savings. They should then implement solutions that reduce the likelihood of these events, as well as manage their financial impact. This might involve purchasing a life insurance policy or investing the savings in many different stocks, to reduce the exposure to any one company's fortunes. Generally, a few simple measures taken to address catastrophic risks have a great impact on our well-being.,Focus on catastrophic risks,It is better to take on many small risks than face one big risk. Many small risks generally average out, to give an outcome that is not too extreme in one direction or another. Results become more predictable. Thus, diversification is an important tool in managing risk.,Diversify, diversify, diversify.,Where do actuaries manage risk?,At this time, the majority of actuaries work in careers that are associated with the insurance industry, though growing numbers work in other fields. They are heavily involved in insurance because that is society's most powerful answer for managing risk. We reduce our risk of financial loss by transferring it to an insurance company that accepts the risk for a price (which is the insurance premium).,Actuaries play a key role to design insurance plans, determine the premium, monitor the profitability of insurance companies and recommend corrective action when appropriate. Actuaries working in insurance companies also ensure that insurance companies have set aside enough funds to pay claims and provide advice on how to invest the insurance companies' assets.,Actuaries work in all sectors of the economy, though they are more heavily represented in the financial services sector, including insurance companies, commercial banks, investment banks and retirement funds. They are employed by corporations as well as the state and federal government. Many work for consulting firms. Some are self-employed, enjoying financially rewarding careers that also come with the great flexibility of being one's own boss.,精算考试,Society of Actuaries 中国精算师资格考试,SOA,Member ASA FSA Examination Course精算学和精算考试介绍-2006年12月15日Spring 2007 Basic Education Catalog-courselist.htm Timing,SOA的职业和考试情况（2003）,Number of SOA Members,SOA Membership By Region,Source: SOA Membership Database Source: SOA Membership Database,SOA MembershipAsia Pacific Region,Course 1 Students (total = 5,647),Courses 1-5 Students (total = 13,408),Courses 1-8 Students (total = 15,210),中国精算师,2000年开始 2000-2004，每年一次 2005开始每年两次 截至2006年10月 56名FSA 287名ASA,相关的信息（国际）,Be An Actuaries www.beanactuaries.org SoA www.soa.org CAS www.casact.org IAA www.actauries.org,相关的信息（中国）,中国精算网 精算家园 复旦精算之家 南开精算家园 北大精算之家BBS,FAQ,数学与精算,为什么要学习这么难的数学? 兴趣、爱好、衣食不愁 过渡 仅仅作为训练和工具 什么是你最兴奋和能够坚持的东西？ 逻辑分析能力 观察力 你对社会的变化敏感吗？,Why you?,你的未来职业方向 学术研究 业界的实务工作 你的特点 目标明确、不容易改变 不容易抵御流行的看法 你的条件 成绩的表现 可能的原因,Whats your prepare?,未来职业发展的选择 专业 数学学得好 数学学得不是很理想 家人对你的影响 如果不是非常的明确，不要过早参与。,写给新人 写给打算考精算的新人.pdf,近期的安排,了解信息 报名 1月10日 Exam FM: Financial Mathematics*，Friday, May 25 ，2.5 hours 申请折扣号 准备考试,欢迎提问！,