[PPT模板]McKinsey Broad Market Study.ppt
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1、McKinsey was commissioned in Q1, 2003 to: provide dedicated effort in conducting in-depth market survey and collect detailed information from 4 cities within 2 provinces to identify the key growth drivers in Chinas broad market; 4 product categories were included: G.I. (Motilium), OBGY (Gyno.), Nail
2、 Infection (Sporanox) provide business model / proposal for XJP to capture the broad market,McKinsey Broad Market Study Process,Project design (Q1, 2003) Project review with local and regional J-C team (Apr. 03) Survey market selection (Apr. 03) Field work in 2 cities in Shandong (May 03) 1st interi
3、m report (mid-June 03) Field work in 2 cities in Sichuan (mid-June mid-July 03) 2nd interim report and Killer Idea workshop (end July 03) Final report (Aug. 03) Presentation to corporate management (Sept. 03),BROAD MARKET CAN BE DEFINED AS CLASS 2 HOSPITALS AND BELOW AT REGIONAL CITY LEVEL AND ALL H
4、EALTH CARE INSITITUTIONS AT COUNTY LEVEL AND BELOW,Regional city,County,Town,Village,Class 3 hospital,Class 2 & below hospital,Pharmacy,Clinic,Broad market,Source: McKinsey analysis,BROAD MARKET DRUGS INCLUDE OTC AND “OUT PATIENT” Rx DRUGS,Source: McKinsey analysis,Targeting easily diagnosed, non-li
5、fe threatening diseases,Easy to use,Relatively cheap,Relatively safe with few side effect,Examples,OTC,Mature,New,Motilium,Gyno-Daktarin,Rx,Outpatient,In-hospital,Sporanox / Sibelium,Cipramil,Broad market drugs,McKinsey Key Findings Overall Market Situation,BROAD MARKET REPRESENTS 94% OF OVERALL DEM
6、AND FOR BROAD MARKET DRUGS,Class 3 hospital,Broad market drug sales breakdown by geography Percent,* For only 2 according cities * Data for only Sichuan province Source: Interview with distributors, hospitals, pharmacies McKinsey analysis,All 4 cities,Broad market represents 94% of demand,100%=,3.6,
7、2.3,1.3,Bn RMB,Shandong*,Sichuan*,City,100%=,21,6,2,Mn RMB,County,Town,Village,Motilium,Gyno- Daktarin,Sibelium*,Broad market,Sales breakdown of XJP product Percent,Other channel at city level,GDP per capita: # of county,9,199 32,11,300 18,5,801 14,County is critical for broad market,DUE TO LOW INSU
8、RANCE COVERAGE AND RECENT REIMBURSEMENT POLICIY CHANGES, MOST PATIENTS PAY BROAD MARKET DRUGS BY THEMSELVES,Insurance coverage in Yantai & Jining,For those with insurance, they can use their personal accounts (RMB 100300 per year) to cover their broad market drug expense In loosely controlled region
9、 (like Yantai), patients can treat the personal accounts as savings account Patients pay on their own after the account balance is zero A majority of population does not have insurance They pay broad market drugs by themselves,Insured,Self-pay,Total,City,County,Town,Village,3-5,95-97,20-30,70-80,10-
10、15,85-90,1,99,0,100,Source: Interview; focus group; McKinsey analysis,PATIENTS GO TO PHARMACY/CLINICS FOR MINOR SYMPTOMS,Source: Interview; McKinsey analysis,Drivers,Increased price sensitivity Changed medical insurance policy Improved highway infrastructure Rich information access TV Newspaper Incr
11、eased life pace No time to visit hospital Pharmaceutical market deregulation policy More and more pharmacies & clinics Conveniently located,Severe symptoms,Town hospital,Minor symptoms,Largest hospitals in city and county,Middle-small hospitals in city and county,Pharmacy/clinics,Rural patients,City
12、 patients,A LARGE PROPORTION OF DRUG SALES COMES FROM RETAIL PHARMACIES; PHARMACY CLERKS BECOME INFLUENTIAL,* 40% of the patients changed their mind in pharmacy Source: Interview; Focus group; McKinsey analysis,“What makes you change your perceived drugs?”* Pharmacy patient survey Percent, Shandong
13、city level,Perceived drug not available; persuaded by pharmacy clerk,Perceived drug available but persuaded by pharmacy clerk,Changed mind by myself,“When I go to the pharmacy without a drug in mind, I just ask the pharmacy clerk to recommend. Then I will check the drugs introduction sheet, if this
14、drug covers my disease, I will have a try” Yibin city level focus group,Total drug sales breakdown Percent,Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinics,Overall,Motilium,Gyno Daktarin,Sibelium,CLINICS ARE PLAYING IMPORTANT ROLE ESPECIALLY AT COUNTY AND TOWN AND BELOW,Source: Interview; McKinsey analysis,Clinics share i
15、n total drug sales Percent,Overall,County,Town,Village,36%,26,34,100,Sichuan,Shandong,City,8,27%,8,27,100,3,G.I. Category Review,* More than half of patients going to large hospitals will purchase drug at retail pharmacies * Branded generic drugs referring to generic drugs that run advertising, crea
16、ting brand awareness in consumers Source: Physician and pharmacy interviews; McKinsey analysis,FOR GI DISFUNCTION DRUGS AS A WHOLE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LATENT DEMAND; PEOPLE GENERALLY SEEK TREATMENT IN CLINICS AND PHARMACIES,Latent market demand 60% of total patients do not seek any treatment As mar
17、ket leader, increasing awareness for Motilium to further boost treatment rate is one of the key demand levers Small clinics and pharmacies are important channels 75% of patients seeking treatment go to clinics and pharmacies,Total incidence,Do not seek treatment,Go to large hospital*,Go to small cli
18、nic,Self medicate at pharmacy,Seek treatment,Not aware,Percent,Motiliums market share,Motilium has a vast room for grow because of significant leakage along the patient flow 60% of GI patients that do seek treatment Current market share of 4% which could be grown further Among the 40% people who see
19、k GI treatment, about 30% would buy banded generic drugs*, while the rest would buy non-brand generic drugs,1.6%,FOR GI DRUGS, POLARIZATION IS BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS,Anecdotes,Quantitative examples,Sub-TA sales by channel Percent,Source: Hospital pharmacy interviews; retail pharmacy interviews; McKin
20、sey analysis,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,“Unlike things in the past, patients nowadays generally try to avoid coming to hospitals because of hospitals expensive charges. For GI disease, most people can judge by themselves. So they usually prefer to go to pharmacies or clinics to b
21、uy drugs.” Qixia GI physician interview,“Most GI patients are repeating patients. They know which drugs to buy, and where the drugs are cheap. So usually they will choose pharmacies & clinics.” Jining retail pharmacist interview,Yantai,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Jining,Importance
22、 of GI drug sales in hospital is diminishing Retail pharmacy would be the major battle field for GI drugs,ROUGH ESTIMATION,SALES OF GI DRUGS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS VILLAGE AND COUNTY, WHILE THE MARKET IS FRAGMENTED WITH MANY DIFFERENT DRUGS,Percent,Motilium,Weiershu (谓尔舒),Mosapride (莫沙比利),Tid
23、ines* (替丁类药),Others*,Sidashu (斯达舒),* Others including more than 200 different GI drugs such as Kuiweipian(快胃片)、 Weifuan(w胃复安)、 Jinweixiaoshipian (健胃消食片)、999(三九胃泰)、丹桂香、胃舒平、健胃酵母片、果胶铋、邦消安、调胃片、胃气痛片、湿胃舒、养胃舒, and many other cheap non-branded generic drugs * Including Cimetadine, Ramitidine McKinsey analys
24、is,Total = RMB 243.05 million,Village,County,Town,City,IN BROAD MARKET, MOTILIUM IS LOSING OUT BIG TIME IN RETAIL PHARMACY CHANNEL ,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Source: Distributor interviews; hospital pharmacy interviews; retail pharmacy interviews; McKinsey analysis,Sales by channel Mn RMB, %,M
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