13 Population and Poverty Reduction.doc
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1、Population and Poverty Reduction人口和减少贫困1. Boosting Growth to Lift People out of Poverty加速经济增长,使人民摆脱贫困A paradox of the second half of the 20th century is that the would population underwent unprecedented growth-from 2.5 billion in 1950 to more than 6 billion in 2001-even as the population growth rate
2、 was declining. The decline was triggered largely by a drop in fertility rates. Between 1852 and 2001 fertility rates fell from 5.1 to 2.7 births per woman. Thus while the population grew by 1.5 percent a year in 1980-2001, the growth rate is expected to drop to 1 percent in 2001-2005.20世纪后半叶曾有这样一种看
3、似矛盾的说法:即使人口增长率在不断下降,世界人口仍将经历一次空前的增长,即从1950年的25亿增至2001年的60亿以上.人口增长率的降低的主要原因是出生率的降低.在1852至2001年间,出生率由每名妇女生产5.1个婴儿降至2.7个婴儿。因此,在19802001年间,尽管人口以每年1.5的速率递增,在20012005年间,增长率将会降至1%。During the transition from high fertility and rapid population growth to lower fertility and slower growth, the working-age pop
4、ulation expand relative to the dependent (younger and older) population, opening a demographic window of opportunity for economic growth. Countries can take advantage of this one-time opportunity if they invest appropriately in their human an physical capital and create employment opportunities for
5、youth and for those who have not been working for wages. Several countries in East Asia, such as the Republic of Korea and Thailand, and a few Latin America, such as Brazil and Mexico, have done so. Bur South Asian countries that are now moving into the later stage of their transition to low fertili
6、ty may not benefit from the demographic transition if they do not encourage growth, investment, and human capital development. The demographic window for these countries will close within a generation.从高出生率的人口快速增长期到低出生率的人口慢速增长期的过渡期间,相对于被抚养人口(老幼人口),工作年龄人口扩大了。从人口统计学的角度来看,这为经济增长提供了机会。国家可以通过对人力和实物资本的适当投
7、资以及为青年人和非雇用人口创造就业机会来利用好这个一次性的机会。一些国家已经这样做了,比如东亚的韩国,泰国以及拉丁美洲的巴西和墨西哥。但是,如果不鼓励经济发展,投资及人力资本的发展,那些现在进入低出生率过渡期后期的南亚国家将不能从这次人口过渡的机会中受益。而且,在一代人的时间之内,这扇人口带来的机会的窗口将会对这些国家关闭。In many developing countries agriculture is still the main economic activity. As economies grow, more people work for wages. In most coun
8、tries wages are rising steadily, increasing prosperity and raising standards of living.在许多发展中国家,农业仍然是主要的经济活动。随着经济的发展,将会有更多的人成为雇用人口。在大多数国家,工资的稳定增长促进了繁荣,提高了人民生活水平。In developing countries gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.3 percent a year in 1990s, and the share of people living on less than $1 a
9、day fell from 29 percent to 23 percent. By 1999, 125 million fewer people were living in extreme poverty. But the poorest are often excluded from all but the lowest level of economic activity.20世纪90年代,发展中国家的国内生产总值以3.3%的速率逐年递增。每日生存花费低于一美元的人口比例从29%降至23%。截至1999年,生活在极度贫困中的人口数量减少了一亿两千五百万。但是,除了最低水平的经济活动,最
10、贫困人口总是被其它经济活动排除在外。Progress in reducing poverty has been uneven. Within countries, the large gaps in social indicators between rich and poor confirm the persistence of deprivation. Globally, much of the decline in income poverty took place in East Asia, where sustained growth in China has lifted near
11、ed 150 million people out of poverty since 1990. And faster growth in India has led to a modest decline in the number of poor people in South Asia. But in other regions the number of poor people has increased even as their share in the population has declined-and in Europe and Central Asia both the
12、number and the share of poor people has risen. Unemployment is high in many of the formerly centrally planned economies, with long-term unemployment hovering around 50 percent of total unemployment in the Czech Republic, Estonia, and Latvia in 1998-2001.消除贫困的进程的发展是不均衡的。在各个国家,社会指数显示的贫富之间的巨大差异,证明了剥削的持
13、续。从全世界来看,贫困人口的减少主要发生在东亚。从1990起,中国的持续发展已经使一亿五千万人口脱离了贫困。印度的较快发展也使得南亚的贫困人数有所减少。但是在其他地区,虽然在总人口的所占比率降低了,但贫困人口的数量仍在增加。甚至在欧洲和中亚地区,贫困人口的数量和所占比率都在上升。19982001年间,在捷克,爱沙尼亚,拉脱维亚这样的从前是中央计划经济的国家,失业率很高。其中长期失业人口占总失业人口的近50%。2. Enhancing Security for Poor People提高贫困人口的保障水平Poor people face many risks. They face labor m
14、arket risks, often having to take precarious jobs in the informal sector and put their children to work to increase household income. In Sub-Saharan Africa one in three children ages 10-14 was in the labor force in 2001. poor people also face health risks, with illness and injury having both direct
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