运营风险管理波兰华沙大学.ppt
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1、运营风险管理,波兰华沙大学,Programme,Aims and objectives: To give an integrated perspective on operational risk management To enhance basic skills of risk management development programmes Key topics: Key concepts of operational risk management Risk research and assessment Risk management,Traditional risk manage
2、ment deals with uncertainty of markets,NASDAQ Stock Exchange,Burst of New Economy,Boom of New Economy,Why to manage risk ?,Only few operational plans run according to the initial schedules and other assumptions There is nothing like an operational programme free of risks. A part of business challeng
3、e comes out from the risk behind them. There are many powers working against your plans. Many will enjoy your fall down. Sometimes the operational management requires unlikely decisions, when the unexpected occurs. It is not possible to forecast and programme a convenient reaction against any risk.
4、However a good manager how to adapt his plans to meet the risks.There is a very narrow gap between foolishness and a reasonable risk and it outcomes from a good understanding of potential losses and accepted risk for the owner and participants of the programme or project. Business is like a game. Ve
5、ry often a winners grabs the whole pool. Do you lack the luck, or maybe you are unprofessional ? Adapt or die !,Effects of business projects,Reality What is common for these projects / programmes ?,Eurotunnel Millennium Bug Barrings Bank (trade of derivatives) IRIDIUM cellular network Project Blue,W
6、hat is risk ?,Risk of unlikely events or circumstances Risk is related to the uncertainty Risk management includes: concepts, recommendations, procedures, methods and techniques, organisational structures, methodologies, which may reduce or eliminate the effects of unlikely events or circumstances,M
7、ajor errors of estimation of the risk-profit ratio,Case I: A project, which is too risky or costly is being run to its end (Eurotunnel). Effect: significantly lower risk or loss or even crash. Case II: A project rejected, which promised reasonable risk and exceptional profit (KNEX). Effect: win of a
8、 competitor.,Personal approaches to risk Dangerous characters and personalities,Alergically reacting to risk Drug-dependent people Ignorant Those, for whom there is no problem” up to the end,Assessment of risk occurrence Pattern scale,Scale of risk effects Pattern,Map of risk Two-dimensional matrix
9、of risk estimation P - E,Acceptable risk Fuzzy concept,Different perspectives on risk,Client Sponsor Clients owner Company Companys owner Insuring company Management (legal responsibility) Subcontractors Employees Competitors Government, local authorities etc. Public opinion,Morphology of risk,RISK,
10、Probability,Factors,Outcomes,Effects,Reasons,Causing events,Prevention,Reaction,Model of risk management process,Reporting Escalation Control Decisions,Aggregation,Monitoring,Performance,Identification,Analysis,Planning,Major ways to react against risk,Prevention Transfer of risk or its effects to o
11、thers (partner, insurance, forfeiting, factoring, other third parties) Compensation of risk (derivatives: forwards/futures/options, parallel transactions) Diversification / distribution of risk Contingencies Preventive / correcting actions and procedures No reaction acceptance of potential effects,C
12、ontingencies against risk,Price margin Balance sheet / budget Cash-flow Lead-time Materials and capacities (active or passive),Key steps of risk management,Identification of risks (reasons, outcomes, effects) Analysis of risks (probabilities, effects etc.) Risks mapping Programming of preventing and
13、 correcting activities (analysis and evaluation of potential variants): Elimination and reduction of risk impacts Programming of material, organisational (including preventive and correcting procedures) and financial contingencies Insurance and compensation of risk Implementation of the new componen
14、ts of risk management Processes and environment monitoring Reacting: initiation of correcting procedures,Planning of risk management,For each planned activity / operation / process: Identify risk, assess probability of occurrence Analyse risk factors (reasons, causing events, symptoms !) Identify po
15、ssible preventive and correcting actions Identify applicable contingencies Assess effectiveness of preventive and correcting actions and contingencies Select the best tools Implement (plans, procedures, priorities, documentation, monitoring, resources, finance),Key principles of risk management,Its
16、a continuous process, using outputs of operations and environment monitoring Risk management should be integrated with or even incorporated into operations management Preventive and correcting actions should be programmed Standardisation (e.g. scales of risks) Risk audits should be incorporated into
17、 company audits,Responsibilities of risk manager Risk manager is the owner of the risk problem,Management of risk analysis Management of programming of preventive and correcting activities Supervision of risk monitoring (milestones !) Control and supervision of preventive and correcting activities R
18、isk escalation procedures Supervision of risk related schedules, budgets, resources etc. Supervision of risk records,Key parties of risk management,Operations/Project Manager Risk Administrator Financial manager / Chief Accountant / Treasurer Bank / Insurance company / Broker Lawyer Risk manager Mar
19、keting manager Client Engineer Authorities,Key documents of risk management,Working documents: Maps of risks Scenarios, CEDAC diagrams Financial assessment of risks Risks records Calculations of safety funds and contingencies Plans-records of preventive and corrective activities Risk related organis
20、ational procedures Documentation related to insurance and compensation of risks,Reporting of risk,Major risks Risks distribution Significant changes of the level of risks Escalation reports Activities Costs Current estimation of required budgets for correcting actions,Methodologies for risk manageme
21、nt,What they offer: Checklist of risk reasons and factors Consistent methods for risk assessment Records, databases Pattern procedures Consistent reporting,Risk management in some project management methodologies,Major fields of business risk,Operations: Internal Risks related to deliveries and supp
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- 运营 风险 管理 波兰 华沙 大学
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