隐形冠军——超越危机的战略与领导艺术.ppt
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1、Changsha, October 10, 2009,21世纪的隐形冠军 超越危机的战略与领导艺术 Hidden Champions of the 21st Century Strategy and Leadership Beyond the Crisis,赫尔曼西蒙 教授 博士 Prof. Dr. Hermann Simon,Bonn Office Haydnstrasse 36, D-53115 Bonn, Germany Tel. +49/228/9843-115, Fax +49/228/9843-380 e-mail: hermann.simonsimon- Internet: ww
2、w.simon-,9H01X043,- 2 -,“中国谚语” Chinese Wisdom,风雨来时, 人或筑墙, 余者造风车 “When the storm comes, some build walls, the others build windmills.”,9H01X043,- 3 -,你了解危机的实质吗? Understanding the Crisis?,宏观经济背景 Macroeconomic perspective: 危机的根源 The root of the crisis 金融市场与实体经济 Financial vs. “real” markets 全球化的冲击 The i
3、mpact of globalization 政府的角色 The role of government,9H01X043,- 4 -,来也匆匆,去也匆匆 Steep Ascent, Steep Fall,Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 2, 2009, p. 11 * German engineering firms,新订单 New Orders* 2005=Index 100,Dec. 2007 148.9,Jan. 2009 91.4,May 2009 66.1,9H01X043,- 5 -,危机如何影响行业 How Crises
4、Affect Sectors,前危机时代的变化 Changes in former crises (1980-2006),Increased spending over period average,Decreased spending over period average,Source: Hermann Simon, Beat the Crisis - 33 Quick Solutions for Your Company, New York: Springer 2009.,9H01X043,- 6 -,一个产业的子行业受影响的情况,Revenue growth per 2009,Reve
5、nue drop per 2009,Revenue changes (in %),Source: Hermann Simon, Beat the Crisis - 33 Quick Solutions for Your Company, New York: Springer 2009.,9H01X043,- 7 -,超越危机 Beyond the Crisis?,危机将以何种形式发展 Course of the crisis: V, U, L, hysteresis or W? 社会政治后果 Socio-political consequences Social tensions 社会紧张 F
6、rom deflation to inflation 从通缩到通胀 Public debt, higher taxation 公债,高税率 More government regulation 更多的政府管制 Protectionism 保护主义 Worst-case scenarios 最坏的图景,9H01X043,- 8 -,危机可能的发展形态,Economic level,Time,U型,L型,Hysteresis 迟滞型,W型,9H01X043,- 9 -,Danger of protectionism 贸易保护主义的危害,2009年4月的伦敦峰会上,G20国家承诺不制造新的贸易壁垒。
7、现在WTO新的平衡状态发人深省。新的关税、配额和各种官僚主义的人为障碍使得世界贸易总额下降了10%。 “At the London summit in April 2009 the G 20 nations promised not to create new barriers to trade. Now the WTO draws a sobering balance. New duties, quotas and bureaucratic hurdles have pushed world trade down by 10%.” Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine
8、 Zeitung, July 4, 2009, p. 13,9H01X043,- 10 -,超越危机 Beyond the Crisis?,公司层面 :危机是固本强身的机会 Corporate level: The crisis as a purification 去杠杆化,净资产更重要 Deleveraging/equity more important 产品线更精干 Streamlining of product lines 重新平衡共给与需求 Rebalancing of supply and demand 并购的好机会 Acquisition opportunities 出现极端价格细
9、分市场 Emergence of ultra-price segment A new modesty?,9H01X043,- 11 -,极端低价产品的出现 Emerging Ultra-low Price Segment,Tata Nano “One laptop per child” Nestl Pharmaceuticals/GSK From emerging to industrial countries?,9H01X043,- 12 -,Tata Nano,9H01X043,- 13 -,谁是全球最大的出口国? Who is No. 1 in Exports?,China 中国 USA
10、 美国 Japan 日本 Germany 德国,9H01X043,- 14 -,2008年出口总额 (单位:10亿美元Billion US-$),Source: 2009 CIA World Factbook,9H01X043,- 15 -,出口额 2000-2008 年 (单位:10亿美元 US-$ billion),Source: WTO Trade Statistics,in billion US-$,Germany 德国,China 中国,USA 美国,Year,9H01X043,- 16 -,什么是隐形冠军? What Is a Hidden Champion?,市场份额排世界前3名
11、,或者在本大洲排第一 Top 3 in the world or no. 1 on its continent 年销售收入在40亿美元以下 Revenue below $4 billion 不为公众所熟悉 Not well known in general public,9H01X043,- 17 -,隐形冠军举例 Hidden Champions,Delo Baader Brainlab Lantal Brita Tetra Belfor,9H01X043,- 18 -,来自中国的隐形冠军Hidden Champions from China,中集:46%的全球集装箱份额 China Int
12、ernational Marine Containers: 46% of global market for standard containers 比亚迪:72%的全球手机电池市场份额 BYD Battery: 72% of global market for mobile phone batteries 上海振华港机:35%的港口集装箱 Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery: 35% of global market for harbor cranes 格力:30%的全球家用空调市场份额 Gree: 30% of global market for househo
13、ld air conditioner 圣雅伦:指甲钳大王 St. Allen: Nail clippers,9H01X043,- 19 -,中国占世界的市场份额 China: World Market Shares,9H01X043,- 20 -,中国中小企业扮演的角色 Role of small and mid-sized firms for China,中国今日的经济成就很大一部分归功于中小企业“China owes a great deal of its recent economic success to small and medium enterprises.” 1990年100万
14、家,2001年800万家,2008年6000万家。 1990: 1m, 2001: 8m, 2008: 60m small firms 贡献了60%的GDP和50%的税收 Account for 60% of GDP and 50% of tax revenues 66%的专利申请 66% of patent applications 68%的中国出口 68% of Chinas exports,9H01X043,- 21 -,世界各国的隐形冠军版本 Hidden Champions Worldwide,Russia 2005,Japan 1998,Germany 1997,Italy 200
15、1/2007,Brazil 2003,Netherlands 1997,Spain 1997,Poland 1999,Turkey 1999,France 1998,January 26, 2004,India 2006,Serbia 2007,Egypt 2008,Korea 1997/2008,China 1997/2000/ 2005/2009,Taiwan 1996/2004,USA 1996/2009,9H01X043,- 22 -,过去10年最重要的变化 Key Facts of the Last Ten Years,100万个新工作机会 1 million new jobs 年增
16、长额几乎达到10%,销售收入是10年前的2.5倍 Annual growth of almost 10% p.a., revenue 2.5 times larger than 10 years ago 新产生超过200个亿万富翁 More than 200 new $-billionaires 全球市场份额大幅增加 Sharp increase of world market share 大规模的创新浪潮 Massive wave of innovation,9H01X043,- 23 -,隐形冠军与金融危机 Hidden Champions and Crises,30%的公司曾经在严重的危
17、急中幸免于难 30% have survived serious crises 隐形冠军从危急中获利 Hidden champions profit from crises 市场是在艰难的时刻,而不是顺利的时刻重新洗牌 Markets are redistributed in difficult, not in easy times 稳健的财务是关键 Solid financing is crucial,9H01X043,- 24 -,他们为什么成功? Why are they successful? 他们和大公司有什么不同? How do they differ from large fir
18、ms? 我们从他们身上可以学到什么? What can we learn from them?,9H01X043,- 25 -,雄心勃勃的目标 Extremely ambitious goals: 关于市场领袖地位 Market Leadership 关于成长 Growth,9H01X043,- 26 -,Chemetall凯密特尔,“凯密特尔的目标是成为全球范围内技术和营销的双重领袖!” “The goal of Chemetall is the worldwide technology and marketing leadership.”,9H01X043,- 27 -,3B Scient
19、ific 三毕科技,我们要成为并保持世界第一的地位! “We want to become and stay no. 1 in the world.”,9H01X043,- 28 -,Karl Mayer 卡尔梅耶,“我们不希望我们的全球市场份额低于70%” “We dont want our world market share to drop below 70%.”,9H01X043,- 29 -,隐形冠军的市场份额 Market Share of Hidden Champions,相对市场份额 Relative market share,绝对市场份额 Absolute market sh
20、are,1.56,2.34,33.0%,30.2%,全球 World,今天 Today,10年前 10 years ago,10年前 10 years ago,今天 Today,9H01X043,- 30 -,增长 Growth,从隐形冠军到“大冠军” From Hidden Champion to Big Champion,9H01X043,- 31 -,增长 Growth,中型的隐形冠军公司 Mid-sized Hidden Champions,9H01X043,- 32 -,增长 Growth,小型隐形冠军公司 Small Hidden Champions,9H01X043,- 33 -
21、,经验之一 Lesson 1,成功永远源自于雄心勃勃的远大目标。21世纪的隐形冠军对于市场领袖地位和企业的成长壮志凌云,这是促使他们前进的动力! Success always begins with ambitious goals. The Hidden Champions of the 21st century go for growth and market leadership. This is the fuel that drives them forward.,9H01X043,- 34 -,聚焦与深度 Focus and Depth,9H01X043,- 35 -,Uhlmann
22、乌尔姆,我们从来都只有一个客户,将来也只会有一个客户,那就是:医药行业。 我们只做一件事情,但是我们把它做好! “We always had one customer and will only have one customer in the future: the pharmaceutical industry. We only do one thing, but we do it right.”,9H01X043,- 36 -,Flexi,我们只做一件事,但是这件事我们比所有人都做得好! “We will do only one thing, but we do it better th
23、an anyone else.”,9H01X043,- 37 -,求深不求宽:聚焦战略的要旨 Deep Instead of Broad: A Focused Strategy,The Case of Winterhalter,Dishwashers,for,Hospitals,Dishwashers,for,Schools,Dishwashers,for Hotels/,Restaurants,Dishwashers,Water,Conditioners,Detergents,Service,Dishwashers,for,Companies,Dishwashers,for,Organisa
24、tions,宽度,深度,9H01X043,- 38 -,纵深发展的价值链 Deep Value Chain,有关核心竞争力的部分绝不外包 No outsourcing of core competencies 无关核心竞争力的部分尽可能外包 Strong outsourcing of non-core activities 自己的机床设备 Own machine shops 技术研发守口如瓶 Very secretive in R&D 对战略联盟不敢兴趣 Avoidance of strategic alliances,9H01X043,- 39 -,对于外包的评价 Comments on O
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- 关 键 词:
- 隐形 冠军 超越 危机 战略 领导艺术
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