Simulation-Supported Decision Making仿真支持决策.ppt
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1、Simulation-Supported Decision Making,Gene Allen President Decision Incite Inc.,Simulation A Tool for Decision Making,Quickly Identify and Understand How a Product Functions: What are the major variables driving functionality? What are the combinations of variables that lead to problems in complex sy
2、stems? Ability Exists Today Due to advances in compute capability,Correlation Maps,Generation of Correlation Maps,Correlation Map a 2-D view of a Results Data generated from Monte Carlo Analysis Incorporates Variability and Uncertainty Updated Latin Hypercube sampling Independent of the Number of Va
3、riables Results with 100 runs Does Not Violate Physics No assumptions of continuity “Not elegant, only gives the right answers.”,Correlation Maps to Understand Cause & Effect,Input Variables,Output Variables,Ranks input variables and output responses by correlation level Follows MIT-developed Design
4、 Structure Matrix model format Filters Variables Based on Correlation Level,Upper right positive correlation,Lower left negative correlation,A Correlation Map,Meta Model of Design Alternatives,Correlation Map: - Includes All Results - Highlights Key Variables,Stochastic Simulation Template,100 MCS r
5、uns,Generation of Correlation Maps,Monte Carlo Analysis,Solution: Establish tolerances for the input and design variables. Measure the systems response in statistical terms.,Sources of Variability Material Properties Loads Boundary and initial conditions Geometry imperfections Assembly imperfections
6、 Solver Computer (round-off, truncation, etc.) Engineer (choice of element type, algorithm, mesh band-width, etc.),x1 x2 x3,y1 y2,The Fundamental Problem ,Variability,Structural Material Scatter,MATERIAL CHARACTERISTIC CV Metallic Rupture 8-15% Buckling 14% Carbon Fiber Rupture 10-17% Screw, Rivet,
7、Welding Rupture 8% Bonding Adhesive strength 12-16% Metal/metal 8-13% Honeycomb Tension 16% Shear, compression 10% Face wrinkling 8% Inserts Axial loading 12% Thermal protection (AQ60) In-plane tension 12-24% In-plane compression 15-20%,Source: Klein, M., Schueller, G.I., et.al.,Probabilistic Approa
8、ch to Structural Factors of Safety in Aerospace, Proceedings of the CNES Spacecraft Structures and Mechanical Testing Conference, Paris, June 1994, Cepadues Edition, Toulouse, 1994.,The Deception of Precise Geometry,Geometry imperfections should be described as stochastic fields.,Monte Carlo Results
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