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1、On the Influence of 2008 Financial Crisis Upon China 2008 年金融危机对中国的影响 Submitted to the School of Foreign Languages as a partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Arts SIAS International College of Zhengzhou University April 20, 2007 Acknowledgments I would like to express
2、 my gratitude to all those who helped me during the writing of this thesis. I gratefully acknowledge the help of my supervisor, Ms. Xue Chunmei, who has offered me valuable suggestions in the academic studies. In the preparation of the thesis, she has spent much time reading through each draft and p
3、rovided me with inspiring advice. Without her patient instruction, insightful criticism and expert guidance, the completion of this thesis would not have been possible. I also owe a special debt of gratitude to all the professors in School of Foreign Languages, from whose devoted teaching and enligh
4、tening lectures I have benefited a lot and academically prepared for the thesis. I should finally like to express my gratitude to my beloved parents who have always been helping me out of difficulties and supporting without a word of complaint. i Abstract In the modern world, the economy crisis has
5、showed up some new characteristics, such as globalization and economy bubbles etc. Moreover, some economy innovations have caused directly and indirectly the eruption of economic crises. So is the 2008 financial crisis which was mainly caused by the overcheap social credit and the problems existing
6、in financial supervision system. After Chinas entry into WTO, Chinese economy is closer to the rest of world than ever before. Moreover, the advanced technology also makes the connection among countries closer than the past. Therefore, it is inevitable for China to be influenced by the 2008 financia
7、l crisis. At first, it was mere on the export and the foreign debt. As the dominoes effect showed up, more and more industries got involved, such as stock markets, manufacturing industry, job markets, prices, banking systems, the real estate markets and so on. The 2008 financial crisis was first cau
8、sed by the bad loans in bank in America. Then it spread to other industries. In China, the export and foreign debt firstly got influenced. Later on, job market and banking system were seriously damaged. Due to economy bubble, the real estate market declined sharply. ii Followed up, the luxury market
9、 also got damaged. Confronted with this financial crisis, China should take the political measures to restrict the depreciation of US dollar. Further up, the industry upgrading would save China form the financial crisis. All in all, it is needed to well learn the 2008 financial crisis, so that effec
10、tive measures could be taken to prevent and reduce cost in the next financial crisis. Keywords: 2008 financial crisis in China,influence, domino effect 摘要 在现代世界的大环境下,金融危机显示出了一些新的特征,比如 说全球化,经济泡沫等。更重要的是,一些经济创新已经直接和间接地 引起了经济危机的爆发。2008 年的金融危机也是如此。此次危机主要是 由于过于廉价的社会信用和金融监管系统中存在的问题引起。在中国加 入世界贸易组织后,中国经济与世界经
11、济更加紧密相连了。除此之外, 先进的科学技术也使得各国经济联系更加方便快捷。因此,中国对于 2008 年的金融危机有不可避免性。 首先受到影响的是出口和外债。随着多米诺效应的出现,越来越 多的行业参与其中。例如股票市场,制造业,人才市场,物价,银行业, 房地产等等。2008 年的金融危机首先是由于美国境内的银行业中出现的 坏账引起,接着传播到其他行业。然而在中国,出口和外债首先受到了 iii 影响。紧接着,人才市场和银行业受到重创。由于经济泡沫,房地产也 不可避免地进入了严冬。而后,奢侈品市场也受到影响。 面对着此次金融危机,中国需要采取政治手段来打击美元的连续 升值。最重要的是,产业升级才能
12、真正地救中国出火海之中。 总之,只有充分了解此次金融危机对中国的影响,才能在下次的 金融危机中更好地防范和减少损失。 关键词:2008 中国金融危机 影响 多米诺效应 Outline I Introduction .1 1.1 The new characteristics of modern financial crises 1 1.2 The general reasons of the 2008 financial crisis .2 1.2.1 The overcheap social credit in America 3 1.2.2 The problems existing in
13、 financial supervision system 3 1.3 The inevitable impact of the 2008 financial crisis upon China .4 II Effects of the 2008financial crisis upon China 5 iv 2.1 In real estate 5 2.2 In manufacturing industry .7 2.3 In luxury industry 8 2.4 In prices .8 2.5 In export and import 9 2.6 In banking system
14、s .10 2.7 In foreign debts .11 2.8 In job markets .11 III Analyses and measures .12 3.1 The analyses of the spread of the 2008 financial crisis .12 3.2 Measures to prevent and reduce costs to the future crises .14 Conclusion .15 Bibliography 16 1 On the Influence of 2008 Financial Crisis Upon China
15、I Introduction 1.1 The new characteristics of modern financial crises Fire is an amazing innovation which keeps us warm, gives us light and makes our food safer to eat. It can also do damage if used improperly. Markets are equally remarkable . The first market allowed us to access goods and services
16、 with amazing diversity (Read 7). However, with the development of the trend of market globalization, one countrys financial crisis can fire all over the world. So is the 2008 financial crisis which began in America and then spread to all over the world. On the other hand, the financial crisis was a
17、lways caused by overproduction in the past. For example, the financial crisis after the First World War. The economy at that time was in a recession. Of course it was affected by the war. People were short of money to buy commodities. Facing the depression, goods were sold no where. Therefore, a lot
18、 of factories had to come to their end. In the aspect of the poor economy situation, goods were overproduced. However, with the development of the modern economy, the stock market comes into being. It makes 2 the real stuff be invisible. Whats more, the invisibility makes the so-called “ hot money”
19、, “ economy bubble” see the light. More specifically, when these words are showing, it turns out that the economy is not healthy. The countries and the corporations whose investment are called “hot money” are very snobby. Once they realize the unstable and the slow down of the invested country, they
20、 will withdraw their money as soon as possible(Zhang 35). Followed up, the economy will collapse. Take the Asian Financial Crisis for example, the government in Thailand took the open policy to allow a lot of “ hot money” to flow into its domestic market. With a lot of foreign capital flowing into t
21、he stock and real estate market, the stock and real estate prices were on the surge. Then the capital price bubble came into being (Lang 280). When the “bubble” surged into a certain degree, these investors began to lose confidence in the false economic prosperity. Losing confidence means the “hot m
22、oney” would be withdrawn. Then the economy had to collapse. After the unreal prosperity, the economy was mere an empty shell. In addition, a lot of money are used to speculate in the stock market and the real estate market instead of the real manufacture industry. It cause the unreal economy prosper
23、ity. 3 A large amount of money are not used to manufacture the real stuff. The so-called prosperity is unreal. When the bubble was broken, the real economy has to collapse without the help of manufacture industry. In summary, the modern financial crises are worldwide and are characterized by economy
24、 bubble. Whats more, the real manufacture industry are negatively affected by the economy innovation. It can be proved by the rising in prices. 1.2 The general reasons of the 2008 financial crisis The 2008 Financial Crisis was originated from America subprime mortgage crisis. About the reasons of th
25、e 2008 financial crisis, different people hold different ideas. 1.2.1 The overcheap social credit in America In the aspect of the overcheap social credit, there are several particulars which we need to pay attention to. Qi Bin, the director of China Securities Regulatory Commision, told the reporter
26、 about his experience in an interview: First,the band risk control is poor. The expired card still could be used. Second, a trade about thousands dollars could be easily treated as a bad debt (Xie 61). Therefore, it is not hard to see that almost every adult could have a credit card no matter whethe
27、r they could pay back. 4 However, what caused the social credit being so cheap? The answer given by the CCTV China Business News programme group was the cutthroat competition among lending institutions. Among the fierce competition, a lot of lending institutions removed the barriers to expand their
28、market shares (42). Driven by the interests, a lot of institutions took some sick policies. For instance, a person could lend money from these institutions without down payments. In this case, a lot of poor people began to lend money from band to buy houses, though they could not pay their loans bac
29、k. As more and more poor people began to lend money from bank, the people who deposited their money in the bank began to worry about their savings. “What if the poor people could not pay the money back?” After losing confidence, the depositors began a run on banks. A bank without thrift had to be on
30、 the verge of liquidation. This was proved by the liquidation of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.- The fourth largest investment company in America. 1.2.2 The problems existing in financial supervision system The president of Morgan Stanley once said, “The most dynamic place in the world is New York.”
31、It means almost everything could be packed and sold as securities (Xie 60). As 5 more and more financial derivative products came into being, a lot of potential dangers appeared. Sewell claimed that it was an “avoidable“ disaster caused by widespread failures in government regulation, corporate mism
32、anagement and heedless risk-taking by Wall Street (Chan). It makes sense that every institution did not want to have danger in their loan. Therefore, some innovations came out. Banks made their loan into securities such as Collateralized Debt Obligation. Then they sold these securities to the invest
33、ing institutions or some individual investors to transfer risk.(Zhang 183) Whats more, for the same purpose, some investing institutions would have their investment insured. Therefore, the insurance company got involved in the mess. To be honest, the risks did not be reduced but transfer to more ins
34、titutions. Once the financial crisis turned up, we would see the domino effect. All in all, we could call the 2008 America subprime mortgage crisis “the credit crisis”. 1.3 The inevitable impact of the 2008 financial crisis upon China From 1.1, we see that the new characteristics of the modern finan
35、cial crises are worldwide. They like virus which 6 could be easily infected to other countries. So is China. Most of all , after Chinas entry into WTO, Chinese economy was more connected to the whole world than ever before. Then the concept “international business” shows up in China. Its appearance
36、brings more and larger markets to China. Above all, the new advanced technologies make the international trade more convenient. Human resources and facilities get better used (Czinkota, Ronkainen,& Moffett 5). On the other hand, Chinese import and export trades are closely connected with the other c
37、ountry. One countrys business failure will affect Chinese import and export trades. Therefore Chinese economy is closely connected with the world. When a country breaks out economy crisis, China will get affected directly and indirectly. II Effects of the 2008 financial crisis upon China 2.1 In real
38、 estate Speaking of real estate, the vision that comes into mind is the new word- mortgage slaves. In the modern word, an average family could not afford to have a house in one payment. Especially in the big city such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the house price is far beyond the average fami
39、lys income. A lot of families choose to make loans from banks. 7 Then they take some money back from their salary to pay back to the banks. Sometimes it will take several decades for an average family to pay off their debts. Therefore, these people are called “mortgage slave”. On the other hand, som
40、e families choose to rent apartments instead of buying. What makes the house price surge? Again, it was caused by the “economic bubble” which is talked about in the introduction. About “ economic bubble”, a famous story is Dutch tulip bubble. People used their money to buy Dutch tulip bubble. Then t
41、he Dutch tulip bubble was in short. Immediately following up, the price of it began to surge. Then these people began to sell their Dutch tulip bubble at a high price. Therefore, they could get the huge interests from the difference. For the same reason, in the recent years, people in domestic inves
42、t their money in real estate. Even the “ hot money” from foreign country enters into domestic real estate market. As the “bubble” develops, the high house price is formed. However, the price goes too far. A lot of houses can not be sold out. Consequently the real estate market is in a recession. Wha
43、ts more, when the 2008 financial crisis came, the 8 whole economic environment was not optimistic. It caused a lot of investments in China retreated. The project invested from oversea began to undersell (Tang 106). It seemed to add fuel to fire when the domestic real estate market was in a recession
44、. Especially when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed , its whole project in China began to undersell (Tang 104). To the recession of real estate market, the government was burning with anxiety. Should government take measures to help the real estate market recovery from depression? Some people
45、hold the positive attitude and other people hold negative attitude. To the view of the first group, government should take measures to reduce the high prices of land,the high taxs and the high interests. Moreover, government should make policies to encourage people to buy houses (Tang 106). To the v
46、iew of the last group, the point to the real estate market is the common purchase power and the expect to future income (Tang 107). Even the measures were taken by government, people still could not afford a house. 2.2 In manufacturing industry The subprime financial crisis in the United States unle
47、ashed a series of severe effects from the stock market 9 collapsing, financial institutions failing, and economies pushed in recession. The crisis spread from real estate to other sectors of economy. Across the globle, it changed to the global financial crisis (Li, Willett,& Zhang 2). At the same ti
48、me, the manufacture industry in China was also affected by this financial crisis. Although China was able to maintain relatively high economic growth, the negative effects from the global financial crisis on China were considerably stronger than is often realized (Li, Willett,& Zhang 2). Take the 18
49、00 toy factories in Dongwan Guangzhou for example. In the background of upgrading industry and increasing fierce competition, the manufacture industry was in a period of winter. Moreover, along with the 2008 financial crisis coming to China, the manufacture industry faced more serious problem(Tang 113). With the foreign investment and hot money retreating, the toy factory failed to loan from bank. Without loans, manugacturing industry had to collapse. More than that is the chain reaction (Tang 113). A toy factorys failure may caused its suppliers bankruptcy. The supplier may caus
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