上海自贸区对香港经济影响appt课件.ppt
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1、0,2013年11月,上海自贸试验区对香港经济影响,1,上海自贸试验区主要改革 区位、经济、制度决定的香港与上海竞合关系 上海自贸试验区对香港更具长期影响,内容,2,一、上海自贸试验区主要改革,3,3,3,上海自贸区总体方案基本内容,来源:新华网, 中银国际研究,上海自贸试验区主要改革,上海自贸试验区的重要目的是提供新一轮改革和对外开放的试验平台,以形成可复制、可推广的经验,从这个角度它释放出大陆进一步深化改革和扩大开放的强烈信号。,4,4,4,上海自贸区实施范围,来源:新华网, 中银国际研究,目前所指的上海自贸区是现有海关特殊监管区的升级,短期内将是试验区性质,离国际社会定义的“自贸区”仍有
2、一定距离。,上海自贸试验区主要改革,5,5,5,上海自贸区改革措施,来源:新华网, 中银国际研究,上海自贸试验区改革的亮点是“一线放开”、“负面清单管理”、“政府职能转变”、“服务业开放”。,上海自贸试验区主要改革,6,6,6,上海自贸试验区监管和税收制度环境,来源:CEIC, 中银国际研究,但短期内试验区内金融开放、税收优惠等方面政策低于市场之前的预期,而试验区改革能否实现政府、市场关系再调整和政府职能转变仍值得进一步观察,上海自贸试验区主要改革,7,7,7,上海自贸试验区服务业改革开放,来源:CEIC, 中银国际研究,服务业改革开放将进一步集聚外商和私人投资,促进上海服务业发展,提升上海在
3、长三角地区贸易、航运、金融中心地位。,上海自贸试验区主要改革,8,二、区位、经济、制度决定的香港与上海竞合关系,9,9,9,香港转口贸易,来源:CEIC, 中银国际研究,区位、经济、制度决定的香港与上海竞合关系,香港传统上是大陆与全球经济一体化的窗口和桥头堡,受益于大陆渐进式改革开放进程。 香港与大陆联系的直接腹地是珠三角地区,未来这一区位关系将更加突出。,大陆与香港贸易中主要省份占比,10,10,10,上海出口中非本地货源情况,来源:CEIC, 中银国际研究,上海是长三角经济圈的领头羊,是区域对外贸易、交通物流和金融服务中心。,上海在主要港口货物吞吐量中占比,区位、经济、制度决定的香港与上海
4、竞合关系,11,11,11,2011年香港分行业服务贸易差额,来源:CEIC, 中银国际研究,香港对大陆服务贸易主要集中在旅游、运输方面,而在商业服务、金融、通讯等方面大陆在香港服务贸易中占比均不到10%。,2011年大陆与香港服务贸易占香港服务贸易比例,区位、经济、制度决定的香港与上海竞合关系,12,12,12,香港与上海服务业占GDP比例,来源:CEIC, 中银国际研究,香港与上海具有相近的经济体量和相似的服务业结构。 从腹地经济体量来看,上海腹地深度略高,但香港自由港经济的制度优势和长期积聚下来的要素竞争优势是上海在短期内难以复制的。,GDP总量之比,区位、经济、制度决定的香港与上海竞合
5、关系,13,13,13,香港金融服务贸易结构,来源:CEIC, 中银国际研究,香港是亚太地区重要的国际金融中心,是大陆推进资本项目开放、人民币国际化等改革开放的国际试验田,从这个角度看香港与上海短期内的合作互补关系要强于竞争关系,而且单从长三角和珠三角各自的经济体量和国际联系来看完全可以各自支撑一个世界级的金融中心。,各省市人民币存款增速,区位、经济、制度决定的香港与上海竞合关系,14,三、上海自贸试验区对香港更具长期影响,15,15,15,内地访港游客,来源:CEIC, 中银国际研究,香港自由港经济优势和亚太地区贸易、金融中心地位是稳定香港商贸旅游服务业客流的基础,而短期内上海自贸试验区尚未
6、涉及到免税购物这一初级问题。,香港零售额,上海自贸试验区对香港更具长期影响,16,16,16,大陆对香港直接投资,来源:CEIC, 中银国际研究,香港是国际企业进入大陆和大陆企业“走出去”的重要平台地区,自贸试验区改革有助于促进上海这一作用的发挥,长期内或弱化香港的作用,但香港特有的制度环境和国际一体化市场仍是短期内上海自贸区无法比肩的。,香港、大陆和上海对外直接投资,上海自贸试验区对香港更具长期影响,17,17,17,H股在香港股市中占比,来源:CEIC, 中银国际研究,长期来看,上海金融市场国际化可能对香港金融服务业产生一定负面影响,但短期内上海自贸试验区的金融自由化仍比较审慎,香港将受益
7、于大陆渐进式的资本项目开放和人民币国际化进程,两地在离岸人民币市场存在合作空间,自贸区企业投资和香港人民币市场可以互为投资渠道和资金来源。,香港人民币债券发行额,上海自贸试验区对香港更具长期影响,18,18,18,广东与江苏、浙江贸易结构,来源:CEIC, 中银国际研究,珠三角地区贸易结构偏重加工贸易,加工贸易出口占出口60%左右,随着要素成本上升,竞争优势不断削弱,可能对香港转口贸易和港资在该地区投资产生一定负面影响。,分省经营地出口增速,上海自贸试验区对香港更具长期影响,19,谢 谢!,20,20,Disclosure,This research report is prepared by
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