漫谈金融全球化.ppt
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1、漫谈金融全球化,魏尚进 纯属个人观点, 言责自负,文献小结: 金融全球化, 理论上好处一条接一条; 费尽吃奶尽, 实证的效果不妙也不巧. 综述文章: Prasad, Rogoff, Wei, and Kose, IMF, 2003 Kose, Prasad, Rogoff, and Wei, 2005 (JEL?),Turkey,India,U.S.A.,China,Benefits of Financial Integration: Theory,Direct Channels Efficient international allocation of capital For capital
2、-poor economieslower cost of capital, higher investment Spillovers of technological and managerial expertise,Benefits of Financial Integration: Theory,Indirect Channels Domestic financial sector development Specialization Disciplining device for macro policies,Benefits of Financial Integration: Theo
3、ry,Effects on Volatility No strong implication for output volatility Consumption smoothing via international risk sharing = Lower consumption volatility,Growth Benefits of Financial Integration: Evidence,About 20 studies of growth effects No effect: 4 Mixed: 12 Positive: 4,閾值效应 (Threshold Effect): 政
4、府缺良治, 金融开放则危机增发百姓更吃苦; 政府有良治, 金融开放则投资增加生活有出路. 例子: 新加坡, 香港 阿根廷, 刚果 文献: Wei, 2000; Alfaro, Kalemli-Ozcan and Volosovych, 2003; Klein, 2005; Chinn and Ito, 2005.,组合效应 (Composition Effect): 国际银行贷款两刃刀, 危机增加效率也难保; 国际直接投资效果好, 资本增加风险又减少. 例子: 中国 vs. 阿根廷 文献: Frankel and Rose; Kose, Prasad, Rogoff, and Wei; Fra
5、nkel and Wei.,The composition hypothesis,Not all capital flows are equal FDI and maybe portfolio inflow are more beneficial to growth than debt Desoto and Reisen 2001; Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundblad, 2005, JFE FDI is also less volatile than international bank loans - More reliance on bank loans incre
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- 漫谈 金融 全球化
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