实例共同货币对国际贸易影响的Meta分析.ppt
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1、A meta-analysis of the effect of Common Currencies on International Trade.,Andrew k. Rose and T.D. Stanley,Presented by: Mara del Carmen Ramos Herrera.,.,Introduction Meta- Analysis across studies Publication Selection and Meta- Regression Analysis Conclusions My suggestions,.,Introduction: The purp
2、ose of this paper is to use meta-analysis method to summarize, investigate and more accurately estimate the common-currency trade effect. Meta-analysis can improve the assesment of this important economic parameter by combining all of the estimates, investigating the sensitivity of the overall estim
3、ate to variations in underlying assumptions, identifying and filtering out publication bias and later on use metaregression analysis( MRA). This meta-analysis confirms a robust, economically important positive trade effect from monetary union.,.,The current interest in the trade effect of common cur
4、rencies began with Rose (2000) A panel of cross-country data covering bilateral trade between 186 different trading partners at 5-intervals between 1970 and 1990. Since most of the variation is across pairs of countries rather time, Rose uses a “gravity model of trade”. This resulting equation for a
5、ssesing trade effects is the following:,.,Tijt : the natural logarithm of trade between countries i and j at time t. : set of nuisance coefficients Dij: the log of the distance between i and j Y: the log of real GDP Z: other controls for bilateral trade CUijt: dummy variable (currency union at t) U:
6、 well-behaved disturbance term : partial effect of currency union on trade (ceteris paribus),.,The surprising and interesting finding is that currency union seemed to have a very large effect on trade. The coefficient for a currency union dummy variable has a point estimate of around 1.2 (Rose 2000)
7、. This estimate implies that members of currency unions traded over three times as much as otherwise similar pairs of countries, ceteris paribus (Why?) There was no previous benchmark in the literature, this estimate seemed implausibly large . Almost all the subsequent research in this area has been
8、 motivated by the belief that currency union cannot reasonably be expected to triple trade.,.,Meta- Analysis across Studies: It is a set of quantitive techniques for evaluating and combining empirical results from different studies. Different point estimates of a given coefficient may be treated as
9、individual observations. Once compiled The hypothesis that the coefficient is 0,To estimate the coefficient of interest more accurately,Rose and Stanley analyze 34 papers and 754 differents estimates of gamma.,There are a sufficient number of studies that have provided estimates of the effect of cur
10、rency union trade and Meta- Analysis seems an appropiate way to summarize the current state of the literature.,Most of them are representative and each estimate is weighted equally. The central concern of this method is to test the null hypothesis: gamma = 0, where all estimates are combined. The cl
11、assic test comes from Fisher and this hypothesis is easily rejected at standard significance level.,However, Fishers test for overall effect is inappropiate for this and perhaps all areas of economic research.,Why?,Because: It is quite strict It is unlikely to be satisfied by empirical economics.,Th
12、en other tests for overall effects are needed. (Table 1).,We can see: fixed and random effects. Manifestly, there is considerable heterogeneity across studies.,The fixed and random effects estimators differ greatly in magnitude and their confidence intervals dont overlap The smaller fixed effects es
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- 实例 共同 货币 国际贸易 影响 Meta 分析
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