中国农村金融改革历程经验教训.PPT
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1、中国农村金融改革: 历程、经验、教训,世界银行高级金融专家 王君 Email: jwang3worldbank.org 2007年11月20日 亚太财经与发展中心农村金融培训班,农村金融的概念,什么是“三农”? 农村 农业 农民 什么是农村金融? 贷款 存款 支付 保险 租赁 贸易融资(trade credit) 其他,农村金融的需求与供给,需求的多样性 农户 种植 养殖 副业 婚丧嫁娶 治病等 农民工 企业 微型 小型 中型 村镇政府 供给 正规金融机构 民间借贷,农村金融改革历程回顾,农业合作化运动中产生的农信社 成立专业银行 成立政策性银行 对农村金融市场实行保护和限制 实行以低利率、高
2、补贴的农村金融政策 改革农信社 1997年亚洲金融危机之后:恢复其合作制性质 2003-2006:注资;明确所有者;移交省政府(成立省联社) 2007年:新的一轮改革试点开始 小额信贷试点(人民银行主导的) 2006年12月以来:降低农村金融市场准入门槛(银监会主导的) 村镇银行 贷款公司 村级农村金融互助组织 农发行 农业银行 邮政储蓄银行,中国农村金融的现状 Current status of rural finance in China,农业占GDP的比重在大幅度下降 Share of agricultural production in GDP has been on the decl
3、ine 对“三农”的关注表明从旧范式向新范式过渡 Concern over san nong indicates transition from the old to the new paradigm 但是仍然在实行对农业信贷的补贴 However subsidized lending to agriculture continues 农村存贷款利率逐步放宽但仍缺乏足够的灵活性 Rural interest rates have been deregulated to large extent but still insufficient 仍然缺乏扶助性的农村金融监管制度 Absence of
4、 an enabling regulatory regime needed for sustainable rural- and micro-finance 农村金融的基础设施仍然不健全 Continued lack of public infrastructure for rural finance,农村金融的特点:风险大成本高 Characteristics of rural finance,风险大 High risks 季节性波动 Seasonal fluctuations 协方差风险 Covariance risks 规模小并且市场分割 Small size of production
5、 and fragmented markets 缺乏传统的抵押物 Lack of traditional collateral 保险和劳动力市场不配套 Poorly complementary insurance and labor markets 基础设施不健全 Lack of physical and public infrastructure,农村金融的目标,减轻贫困? 增加农民收入? 保证农业 稳定县域经济? 保护农村信用社? 防止财政风险? 为农村的企业和农户提供金融服务?,教训之一:误把农村金融当作农业信贷 Lesson one: RF mistaken as agricultur
6、al credit,很多政府把为传统的初级农业提供信贷当作是农村金融 Many governments equated primary agricultural credit to rural finance 因为初级农产品价格往往随着产量的增加而下降,因此农民的收入得不到提高 As prices of primary agricultural products tend to decline with growing supply, farmers income are often suppressed 出于对食品安全和农民福利的考虑,政府往往通过增加补贴的办法试图扩大农业信贷规模 Out
7、of consideration for food safety and welfare of the farmers, governments have a tendency to increase agricultural credit through subsidies,教训之二:扭曲的资金价格导致资源错配 Lesson two: distorted prices lead to misallocation,这种范式的突出特点是实行低利率、补贴贷款和指令性信贷计划 An important feature of this paradigm is to impose regulated l
8、ow interest rates and subsidized and directed lending 由此使得那些能够产生较高回报的经济活动反而得不到融资, 从而导致资源分配的扭曲 Those economic activities with high potential returns are crowded out, resulting in misallocation of resources 实证研究表明政府在农村基础设施、教育、卫生领域的投资实际上更有效率 Empirical evidence is abundant that investment in rural infra
9、structure, education and health generates tremendous higher returns than direct household subsidy,农业信贷补贴与医疗及基础教育融资效益比较 Comparing Agricultural Credit Subsides with Funding for Preventative Health and Basic Education,教训之三:补贴反而造成更大的不公平 Lesson three: subsidy worsens social inequality,补贴的本意是减轻贫困农民的负担 The
10、 motivation behind subsidy is to lessen the burden of poor farmers 然而全世界普遍的现象是低利率贷款往往被那些有权有势的人获得 However it is universally true that subsidized loans are often grabbed by the rich and influential 其结果反而使富者更富,从而加剧了社会的不公平 Consequently the rich becomes richer therefore making the social inequality even
11、worse 指令性贷款和补贴贷款治标不治本,无法从根本上解决金融市场效率低下的问题 Directed, subsidized credit was a poor response to the symptoms without addressing the root cause of poorly performing Rural Financial Markets (RFMs),教训之四:低估农民创造价值的能力 Lesson four: underestimation of farmers ability,很多人认为农民作为弱势群体没有能力承担较高利率 Many believe the fa
12、rmers are unable to bear higher interest rates as they are the weak and vulnerable 从而认为农村小额信贷必须实行低利率 Therefore believing that rural microfinance must be provided at low interest rate 这种认识往往来源于错误地把社会平均利润率等同于边际投资回报率 Such erroneous thinking often stems from mistaking average social returns as marginal
13、investment returns,教训之五: 旧的范式加剧农村金融机构的问题 Lesson five: the old paradigm weakens RFIs,低利率和指令性信贷政策使得农村金融机构没有动力实行商业化经营 Regulated interest rates and directed lending take away incentives for RFIs to assume commercial orientation 因为按照低利率每发放一笔贷款都意味着产生新的亏损 As each new loan implies additional loss at the les
14、s than equilibrium interest rates 只要有政府干预存在这些农村金融机构就有理由指望在发生亏损的时候政府会对其实行监管宽容或救助 As long as government intervention continues these RFIs have reason to expect regulatory forbearance or direct bailout,2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% Interest Rate Paid by RFI on its Borrowed Fun
15、ds 主要假设:股本占总资产的10%,年度平均总资产回报率是20%,管理费用占总资产的6%。 Key Assumptions: equity equals 10 percent of total assets, the average annual yield obtained on total assets is 20 percent, and administrative expenses are six percent of total assets. /,教训之六: 错把较高的市场利率视作高利贷 Lesson six: regarding high interest rates as
16、usurious,传统上有些国家把高于管制的利率视作高利贷 Traditionally some governments regard any interest rates above the regulated rates as usurious 也有的国家法律设定一个标准,超过即视为高利贷 And still others have legislations providing for a threshold for usurious interest rates 然而那种按照一定绝对额设定高利贷界限的做法已经过时了 However it is outdated practice to p
17、inpoint an absolute value as usurious interest rate 实际上只要借款者能够在偿还贷款本息之后仍有利润空间利率就不是高利贷 As long as the borrower is able to generate profit after paying interest and principle the interest rate is not usurious,微型贷款为什么需要高利率 Why lending rate for microloans needs to be high,占1万元贷款平均成本 the percentage cost
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