578用户友好型气候影响与风险评估情景.ppt
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1、Roger Street, 技术指导,中国适应气候变化项目风险评估研讨会,Production of user-friendly climate scenarios for impact and risk assessments 用户友好型气候影响与风险评估情景,Wednesday, 03rd March 2010 2010年3月3日星期三,Beijing, China 中国北京,Towards “User-friendly” Scenarios 走近用户友好情景,Understanding what is and will be available earlier presentations
2、 了解现在及将来可用信息之前介绍 Understanding what is needed and can be delivered this presentation 了解所需与可供本次介绍 Requirement for informed engagement involving the providers and the users of the climate scenarios 要求供应商与气候情景用户保持知情参与 Recognition that what is needed is information to inform the assessments 认识到需要为评估提供信息
3、 Temporal (30-year, baseline) and spatial (what resolution?) scales 时间(30-年,基点)与空间(分辨率)范围 Averaging periods (monthly, seasonal, other)? 平均周期(月、季、其他)? Variables?变量? Recognition that it is also about accessibility (presentation) and utility (guidance),Predict, Optimise and Relax 预测、优化与放松,Focus is on t
4、he climate and projected change 聚焦气候与预期变化 Often assumes that we are adapted to “today” 时常假定我们是在适应“今天” Follows a linear model:遵循线性模式气候预测 Focus is on getting the climate “right” uncertainty remains a barrier to decision making “彻底明白”气候不确定因素会对决策构成障碍 Tendency for decision and policy makers to hold off a
5、waiting better climate information and there is a need to start over each time there is new projections 决策者与政策制定者有这样一种倾向,他们会延时决策以等待更佳的气候信息,因此,每当有新的预期出现,就要从头开始。,Assess, Adjust and Review 评估、调整与回顾,Focus is on understanding the climate (and other) risks 焦点在于认识气候(及其他)风险 Assumes that “today” may need som
6、e further adaptation (benefits the day job) 假定“今天”就可能需要更进一步的适应 (有益于当前工作) Follows a recursive model 遵循递归模式 1.确定问题和目标 2.确立决策标准 3. 评估风险 4.识别可选方案 5. 评估可选方案 6.决策 7.实施决策 8.监控 Uncertainty and risk are made explicit and addressed and can be communicated明确不确定因素与风险,确保其得到相应关注并相互传达 Allows for “adjustments” as b
7、enefits and changes in risk are realised随着风险收益的实现与变化的发生,要允许出现“调整”,Different information needed 需要获取多种信息,Prior to using climate information need a clear understanding of the system of interest (programmes, policies, systems, infrastructure, etc.): 在使用气候信息之前需对相关利益体系有一个清楚的了解(项目组、政策、体制、基础设施等) Sensitivit
8、ies, thresholds, nature of vulnerability and capacity to adapt 敏感性、准入门槛、脆弱性本质及适应能力 Other risks and drivers of change need for socio-economic information 其他风险与变化驱动需要获取社会经济信息 The existing adaptation deficit historical observations and trends 现有适应的不足之处历来评价与历史趋势 This understanding will also help define
9、the climate information needed to support the assessment 这一了解同样有助于界定可用于支持评估的气候信息,Different information needed 需要获取多种信息,There is not a single best practice approach to using climate scenarios使用气候情景的最优方法并不唯一 Need to understand how the scenarios can and cannot be used and consider how to exploit the sc
10、enarios for the intended purpose examples of good practice and inappropriate uses 有必要理解气候情景在何种情况下(不)可用,并考虑如何达到预期使用目的举例说明正反两种情形 The level of detail needed depends on the intended use key findings, maps and graphs, data and analytical tools 预计使用目的决定细节层次需求关键性结论、地图与图表、数据与分析工具 Having different levels of
11、detail can inform the use of the climate scenarios focus on periods/areas of particular interest从不同的细节层次可以看出气候情景的应用关注特定的利益相关周期/地域,Key Findings 主要产出,Provide clear statements of the projected changes based on the climate scenarios 基于气候情景,清楚表述预期变化 Focus on climate variables or interests that are of par
12、ticular interest (area, sector, or time)关注特定利益相关的气候变量或利益体(地域、领域或时间) Can introduce the uncertainty associated with different scenarios 可介入与不同情景相连的不确定性因素 Can be used for communication and further engagement 可用于沟通交流与进一步接触,Examples: 例如: Warmer and wetter winters, with hotter and drier summers冬季变暖变湿;夏季变热
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- 578 用户 友好 气候 影响 风险 评估 情景
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