大国空巢.ppt
《大国空巢.ppt》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《大国空巢.ppt(348页珍藏版)》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、易富贤 著,2009-09-09版,大国空巢 -走入歧途的中国计划生育 A BIG COUNTRY IN AN EMPTY NEST,作者:易富贤 (网名:水寒/中山水寒) 茅于轼 仲大军作序 香港大风出版社出版 2007年9月25日(中秋节),全球200多个国家都不实行的政策肯定不是什么好政策,3,大国空巢,出版、邮购信息:http:/.hk/product/978-988-99725-3-0.aspx 人民网、光明网刊发大国空巢摘要导读:http:/ 易富贤博客:http:/ http:/ 光明网光明观察周刊易富贤文集:http:/ 人民网2009年E两会第一提案:停止计划生育http:
2、/ 您可将书名、数量、详细收货地址及联系方式发邮件至.hk,在收到确认邮件后汇款,出版社邮寄给您。 大风出版社联系方式: 电话:010-8354-0712,或者 +852 2550 8911 传真:010-6358-4622,或+852 2550 8711 大陆地区读者,可将书款汇至: 开户银行:中国工商银行北京市分行宣武支行白广路北口储蓄所 银行帐户:0200 2034 0102 3564 666 开户名称:杨莹 或至: 中国工商银行牡丹灵通卡 卡号:6222 0002 0010 8857 830 开户名称:杨莹 也可以通过乌有之乡淘宝书店购买,5,欢迎捐购大国空巢,计划生育的后果远远超过任
3、何一场战争,请大家共同努力!欢迎有条件者捐购大国空巢,转送有影响力的学者、官员、社会贤达(全国人大代表、政协委员等)、媒体、图书馆。捐购方式:http:/ 共收到的捐购大国空巢款项:Wei Zhao:$2,500,C.C. Yin:$1,000,Mike Wu:$500,刘钟毅$300。徐胜:¥22,500,易武:¥20,000, replenish:¥4,800,孙聚民:¥900,月影风声:¥500,陈立峻:¥500元,不可杀生:¥200元,郑州网友:¥1050元,津门雨季:¥700元,南海沙滩:¥420,喧寂斋¥800,小虫¥750,人口如棋¥100,千秋思念¥200。另有某网友从出版社购
4、买150本送全国各地汉网网友(http:/ ) 已给数百位社会贤达和一些机构送了上千本大国空巢。下面图书馆已经或正在馆藏大国空巢:北京大学、中央党校、国家行政学院、中国社科院、北京师范大学、中国人民大学、国家图书馆、广东省立中山图书馆、中国农业图书馆、上海图书馆、湖南图书馆、天津图书馆、清华大学、上海社科院、河南社科院、南京大学、南开大学、天津大学、浙江大学、华中科大、武汉大学、华东师大、上海交大、中央财政大学、中央民族大学、中国政法大学、中国传媒大学、四川大学、山东大学、东南大学、南开大学、复旦大学、厦门大学、北京理工大学、北京交大、同济大学、南京师大、华南理工大学、西北工大、大连理工大学、
5、中国农大、上海财大、西南财大、中国科大、苏州大学、首都师大、云南大学、湘潭大学、辽宁大学、河北大学、燕山大学、河北工大、上海大学、山西大学、河南大学、郑州大学、暨南大学、南昌大学、广西大学、宁夏大学、湖南大学、华中师大、华南师大、内蒙古大学、陕西师大、黑龙江大学、福州大学、东北师大、重庆大学、西北大学、湖南师大、新疆大学、海南大学、中南财大、香港中文大学、香港大学、香港浸会大学、台湾大学、国立中央图书馆台湾分馆、美国国会图书馆、哈佛大学、威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校、加州大学伯克利分校、加州大学Irvine分校、哥伦比亚大学等机构的图书馆。国家统计局、国家计生委及各省计生委、统计局有一些。,6,总目
6、录,7,大国空巢英文摘要,A BIG COUNTRY IN AN EMPTY NEST (abstract) Analysis of a policy the other 200-plus countries of the world spurn 1. To sustain its population a developed country requires a TFR (total fertility rate, children per woman) of 2.1, but China requires 2.3 due to higher mortality and unbalanced
7、 sex ratio. Considering physically infertile couples (1/7 of total population), by-choice DINK households (double-income, no kids), and lifetime singles, only a natural distribution of families with three, four, or more children would avoid national shrinkage. The one child policy truncates the stro
8、ngest couples and deliberately plunges TFR beneath replacement. 2. The National Family Planning Commission falsifies data to justify its existence by adding 50% to annual births, augmenting the total fertility rate from the actual 1.2 -1.3 to 1.8. All independent statistics indicate a sub-1.8 TFR (o
9、nly 1.3 in 1995 and 1.22 in 2000, numbers supported by the closure of many elementary schools in recent years for lack of students). No matter the actual numbers each time the Commission falsifies data and adjusts the fertility rate to be 1.8 (bottom line to keep the Commission alive). By the end of
10、 2005 the actual population was 1.25 billion, not 1.307 billion announced by China Census Bureau. If the current one-child policy continues to be implemented, Chinas population peak would not even reach 1.3 billion, let alone 1.5 or 1.6 billion claimed by the National Family Planning Commission and
11、mainstream demographers. Instead, China at present is actually on the brink of negative population growth. 3. It is a myth that China has too many people. China ranks top in many natural resources: No. 1 in agricultural land and hydro power; No.3 in landmass and minerals (No.2 in coal; No.1 in rare
12、earth metals, productions exceed 90% of global output); No.5 on forest area; No.6 on fresh water reserve. Because of uneven distribution of natural resources, “world average” has little meaningful sense. For example, ex-USSR, Oceania, Canada, U.S. and Mongolia have 10% of global population with a to
13、tal landmass exceeding 39% that of the planet. U.S., Canada, Russia, Oceana and South America have 13.7% of global population with 36% of agricultural land. These countries also have disproportional more forest, prairie and fresh water than global average. With exception of a handful of resource ric
14、h countries, China is not a resource poor country. For example, excluding China, in terms of agricultural land per capita, 40.9% of global population have more, and 59.1% population have less than China. In terms of mineral resources per capita, 16% of global population have 8 times more than China,
15、 but China has 1.56 times more than the rest 84%. Due to climate and other variations, agricultural land does not equal to crop production. For example, China rice productivity is about 420kg per Chinese acre, Japans is about 440kg and India is about 200kg. In many parts of China rice can be grown t
16、wice or even 3 times per year, whereas many other countries can only do once. India has more arable land than China, but Indias crop production is less than half of China. China does not have land or resource shortage, but the real threat to Chinas food supply is our population composite: not enough
17、 young and able people to grow crops! Crop and meat shortage stem from people shortage. Compared to India, Chinas population density is only 37%, agricultural land (the sum of area under arable land, permanent crops, and permanent pastures) per capita is 2.55 times more, perennial crop land per capi
18、ta is 1.13 times more, prairie per capita is 30.14 times more, forest per capita is 2.08 times more, fresh water per capita is 1.24 times more and mineral resource per capita is 3.55 times more. China is truly a large land with abundant resources, even in terms of resource per capita. The apparent r
19、esource shortage in China is caused by wasteful usage, not by over population. Chinas resource per capita far exceeds that of Japan, South Korea, and many western European countries such as UK, Germany and Italy. A countrys development level was never determined by its resource per capita: Brazil, A
20、rgentina and Russia are much richer in resource per capita than the U.S., but their economic developments are much less. In fact, their economy is similar to that of China, with some of their regions having even less housing area per capita than China. It is all because the ultimate resource is peop
21、le, and China has a lot of it. People are the resource of all resources because we can turn non-resource materials into resources. To reduce population for the sake of increasing resource per capita is totally against human interests. 4. The birth control policy was conceived without any thorough sc
22、ientific study. A few top leaders and scholars essentially made a guess imposed by diktat upon the general population a populace which opinion polls show has always opposed the policy. None of the early predictions have come true, including a 1980 prediction that an aging society would not emerge un
23、til 40 years later, which happened twenty-one years early in 1999, causing China to be the first country to “grow old before rich”. There are only 160 million seniors older than 60 today. Only 40 million urban residents have social security, contributed by the entire workforce of 800 million. Even u
24、nder this condition the social security deficit is equal to of Chinas one years total finance income. In 2030, there will be 400 million seniors older than 60, all wanting social security, but with a much smaller workforce. Today China has 8 working people supporting one senior 65, but in 30 years i
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 大国 空巢
链接地址:https://www.31doc.com/p-3107695.html