Credit Suisse:全球财富报告.pdf
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1、Research Institute Thought leadership from Credit Suisse Research and the worlds foremost experts October 2014 Global Wealth Report 2014 coveRphoto: photo: For more information, please contact: Richard kersley, head of global securities products and themes, credit suisse investment Banking, richar
2、d.kersleycredit- markus stierli, head of Fundamental micro themes Research, credit suisse private Banking James Davies, Rodrigo lluberas and anthony shorrocks, credit suisse global Wealth Databook 2014 8 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 0 1900 1905191019151920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 198
3、0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 gloBal Wealth RepoRt 2014_6 8.1 trillion to the global total. elsewhere, china gained usD 715 billion (3.5%), and the asia- pacific region (excluding china and india) saw a similar percentage improvement, helped by the fact that Japan had a neutral year, unlike 1
4、2 months ago when depreciation of the yen caused total household wealth to drop by more than usD 5 tril- lion. exchange rate changes had little overall effect this year in china, the asia-pacific region and africa, where the small rise in wealth is slightly higher when exchange rates remain constant
5、. But currency depreciation in india and latin america was sufficient to transform an increase in wealth, when measured using constant exchange rates, into a small decrease in wealth using current exchange rates. Asset prices: Strong equity markets a key source of wealth growth over long periods, tr
6、ends in household wealth are strongly related to economic growth, saving rates, and other economic and demographic factors. over shorter timespans, however, changes in household wealth across regions and countries are sensitive to movements in asset prices and exchange rates. last year, these factor
7、s were generally supportive and, in the case of equity prices, abnormally strong in many countries. given that financial assets are disproportionally held by wealthier cohorts, this cer- Figure 3 Change in market capitalization, house prices and USD exchange rate (%), 20132014 source: James Davies,
8、Rodrigo lluberas and anthony shorrocks, credit suisse global Wealth Databook 2014 tainly reinforced the debate about the distributional effects of ongoing central bank asset purchase programs, or quantitative easing (Qe). in a normal year, a 22.6% rise in market capital- ization would have placed th
9、e united states close to the top of the country rankings: this year the united states occupied seventh place among the ten countries listed in Figure 3 (the g8 countries plus china and india). looking further afield, the united states fell in the bottom half of the 50 economies that we monitor in de
10、tail. canada, France and ger- many all recorded gains close to 30%, while capital markets rose by 40% in india and new Zealand, by 50% in Denmark, italy and spain, and by 65% in argentina. viewed in this context, the 10% rise in Japan and Russia was very modest, although mex- ico fared worse with a
11、slight decline, and equity prices dropped in chile, indonesia, turkey and ukraine by an average of 10%. house price movements are another source of changes in household wealth, influencing the non- financial component. last year, the median house price rise was 2.4%, roughly the level experienced by
12、 germany and india, amongst others. property owners in china (8%), australia (8%) and the united kingdom (9%) did better than average, but these were topped by 11% rises in colombia and turkey, and by rises above 15% in peru, the phil- ippines and the united arab emirates. elsewhere, house prices we
13、re flat in Russia and in the united -30-25-20-15-10-5051015202560303540455055 House pricesMarket capitalizationUSD exchange rate United States United Kingdom Russia Japan Italy India Germany France China Canada gloBal Wealth RepoRt 2014_7 states, declined a fraction in France, Japan and singapore, a
14、nd dropped by around 5% in greece and italy. Euro and pound appreciation the positions of individual countries in the global wealth league table are sensitive to exchange rates versus the us dollar. europe has been the main beneficiary of currency appreciation this year, with the euro gaining 5.3% a
15、nd the British pound top- ping the table with a rise of 12.4%. korea was a close second with 11.5%, while the rates for new Zealand, poland, switzerland and taiwan all rose by 8%. at the other end of the scale, india, Russia and thailand depreciated by 6%7%, chile, indo- nesia and turkey by more tha
16、n 10%, and argentina and ukraine by more than 30%. overall, the impact of usD appreciation outweighed the impact of depreciating currencies. Between mid-2013 and mid-2014, total global wealth grew by 8.3% when measured in current usD but by 7.0% when calcu- lated using constant usD exchange rates. W
17、inners and losers among countries the extent to which the united states dominates the global wealth picture this year is evident from Figure 4, which lists the countries with the largest total wealth gains and losses. currency apprecia- tion combined with higher than average house price and equity p
18、rice increases account for the usD 2.3 trillion gained by the united kingdom, while euro appreciation and equity price increases explain why wealth rose by about usD 1 trillion in France, italy and germany, and by more than usD 500 billion in spain. in contrast, wealth losses by individual coun- tri
19、es are quite modest and largely attributable to adverse currency movements. the biggest loss was indonesia (usD 260 billion), while argentina and Russia each shed usD 135 billion and turkey was down usD 100 billion. expressing the wealth changes in percentage terms produces a more balanced distribut
20、ion of gains and losses (see Figure 5). in fact, the great- est percentage changes are the losses of more than 30% suffered by argentina and ukraine. else- where, declines in wealth were relatively modest, with only chile, indonesia, Russia, thailand and turkey recording losses above 5%. among the c
21、ountries reporting gains, the united kingdom tops the table with a rise of 19%, while wealth grew by 15%18% in four other countries: Denmark, greece, spain and korea. Wealth per adult across countries While net worth per adult has reached a new all- time high of usD 56,000 worldwide, this average va
22、lue masks considerable variation across countries and regions, as is evident in Figure 6. the richest nations, with wealth per adult over usD 100,000, photo: Figure 5 Percentage change in household wealth 20132014, biggest gains and losses source: James Davies, Rodrigo lluberas and anthony shorrock
23、s, credit suisse global Wealth Databook 2014 Figure 4 Change in total wealth 20132014 (USD bn), biggest gains and losses source: James Davies, Rodrigo lluberas and anthony shorrocks, credit suisse global Wealth Databook 2014 0200040006000800010000 Indonesia Russia Argentina Turkey Korea France Spain
24、 United Kingdom Italy Germany China United States -2000 0102030 Indonesia Russia Argentina Turkey Thailand Denmark Greece New Zealand South Africa Israel Taiwan Belgium Spain United Kingdom Ukraine Korea United States Switzerland Chile -40-30-20-10 gloBal Wealth RepoRt 2014_8 below USD 5,000 Wealth
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