与自然资产损失(1970-1998年).ppt
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1、The 16th National Congress of CPC and Chinas Prospect,Angang Hu Center for China Study, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Tsinghua University Jan. 28, 2003,The Focus of The 16th National Congress of CPC,Who will be the chief decision-makers of China? How about their decision-making capability? Could the
2、y deal with significant challenges home and abroad? What would be the future of China? What factors would determine the future of China?,最重要的历史经验,党的历史经验表明,只要党内生活民主化、制度化,领导集体就稳定,也容易达到政治共识,促成中国发展的繁荣时期;反之则反。,Succession Patterns in different period,The most important task of CPC National Congress is to
3、elect and decide the leading group and leadership core. 1.1949-1958:Institutional and democracy within party 2.1959-1965:Destruction of partys rule 3.1966-1976:Non-Institutionalized leadership succession under Centralized System, Guideline Struggle within CPC 4.1977-1987:rebuilding partys rule, youn
4、g leadership,abnormal leadership succession in transition period 5.1989-2002年: Institutionalized leadership succession,My proposal for Institutionalization of Leadership Transition,从现在起进入新的阶段,即第四代领导人执政时期,也是党和国家领导人的变动制度化、规范化和程序化的重要时期。 其重要标志之一是党的领导人“到点退休”,而不是“半退”或转任。 重要标志之二是十六大党的领导机构成员(政治局常委、委员和书记处书记)
5、进一步年轻化,应达到十三大的平均年龄水平。(Hu Angang, June 2002),Average Ages of Leaders(1982-2002),How to Making New Leaders Youngster,My anticipation (the best ): Members of Standing Committee:4/7 retirement,account for 57%,new member come from provincial secretaries who are current member of Political Bureau Members
6、of politburo :11/21 retirement,account for 45%,new member come from provincial secretaries,Biggst “吐故纳新”,大量补充新鲜血液,Members of Standing Committee:6/7 retirement,account for 85%,average year:62 years Members of politburo:13/21 retirement,account for 62%, average year:60.7years,Educational structure of
7、Members of Political Bureau(1982-2002),Member of Political Bureau(2002),Average schooling year is 16.4 years, belong high educated level, it is the highest level. Specialty background: Engineering:16,66.7 Party school:2 Social science:3 Agriculture:1 Military:3,Patten of Political Leaders Sources:Pr
8、ovincial Leaders,布什总统在回答一位美国小孩如何做好美国的总统时指出,首先必须学会作好美国的州长,才有可能做好美国总统; 美国的总统大部分来自于地方州长或政治领导人; Provincial governance is the best school for central leaders to learn national governance and the best examination of recognition and selection for central leaders,and the best political stage. 中国领导人的产生已经具有了某
9、些美国领导人产生模式的特征,只是选举的方式根本不同。,Ratio of Working in Provincial Level to Central Leaders,政治局成员的地方工作经验,省市委书记的位置是学习国家治理的最好学校和最好实践,也是成为中央领导人的重要“政治台阶”。这是不成文的“规则”。 十五届政治局成员83拥有省级领导经历,58曾任省市委书记,有4人现任省市委书记。 十六届政治局成员80拥有省级领导经历(除温家宝、曾培炎、郭伯雄、曹刚川、王刚),5人(20)曾任省市委书记, 10人(40) 现任省市委书记。,中央常委具有省级工作经验的为8人,占89;担任省市委书记的为6人,占
10、57。 有地方工作经验的20名政治局委员中,任副省级的平均时间为4.3年,任正省级的平均时间为4.8年。 十六届政治局委员中曾在上海工作过的4人(4人仅在上海担任过领导职务),北京是3(2)人。,Regional Distribution of Political Resources (Member of politburo),15th:4,Eastern 16th:10 Eastern:7 Midst:1 Western:2,Possibility of Provincial Party Secretary as Member of politburo for Different Regio
11、ns,1949-1997:Shanghai:9/11,Beijing:6/9,1987-1997:Guangdong:2/6,Tianjing:2,Shandong:2,Sichuan:1。 2002:上海:10/12,北京:7/10,广东:2/7,天津:3次,山东:2次,四川:2次,湖北:1次,浙江:1次,江苏:1次,新疆:1次。,Political Stages for New Leaders,New member of politburo:8 in 15th and 2 candidates Time as member of CCP(candidate): 12th:1(9) 13th
12、:5(3) 14th:5(8) 15th:12(4) 16th:1(0)(陈良宇) Average year of member of CCP:8.5 years,Features of Members of CCP,Average age:55.4; 50 years old account for 1/5; 100 members in 15th retirement and account for 50%; Party and state leaders:19;ministers 32;provincial leaders:22; military leaders:21;other:6;
13、 New comers account for 50%,大规模实现了“吐故纳新”; Exception a few, over 65 years old can not as member of CCP,Ratio of High Educated to Members of CCP,Characteristics of Leading Group of CPC,A. Knowledgeable B. Professional C. Tech-Bureaucracy (as a Control-Governance System) D. Modernization and with open-
14、up ideas E. Good capacity of learning and decision-making F. Know China and outside as well,党的领导人交替的制度化和规范化,邓小平废除了任期终身制,促进了领导人的年轻化,其重要标志为十三大; 江泽民确立了领导人的退休制和任期制,进一步促进了领导人的年轻化(十六届政治局委员平均年龄为60.7岁),在中央决策机制与制度安排平衡了各地方的利益(类似于50年代到60年代毛泽东所安排的六大中央局的情形)。,Important Historical Contribution,没有变革型政治领导人中国不能加快发展;没
15、有良好政治制度中国则不能持续发展。从历史的角度与历史的评价来看,领导人最重要的任务是国家制度建设,最重要的历史贡献是制度创新的贡献(Hu Angang,June 2002)。 中国领导人交替的制度化进程超过了我们的预想。,Direction of Political Development (19502002),19531957: Industrialization and Three Reforms 19571978: Class struggle as the guideline 1978 to the 15th of CPC National Congress: Economic con
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