亚太旅游协会未来旅游发展趋势分析APAC_Tourism_Forecast011-.pdf
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1、Asia Pacific Tourism Forecasts 2010, 2011 and 2012 Summary Report Draft Report only, still being proof-read 1 PATA Tourism Forecasts 2010-2012 SECTION I INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS TO ASIA PACIFIC MARKETS The total set of arrivals is given in Table 1.1 for Asia Pacific in 2008 together with forec
2、asts for 2010, 2011 and 2012. Please note that the issue of residence versus nationality can affect accuracy (refer to Table 2). In particular the flows to China (PRC), Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR are very large because they include what are essentially domestic visitors. Table 1.1 Total Arrivals to
3、 Asia Pacific 2008-2012 in Summary COUNTRY2008201008-10201110-11201211-1208-12 AAGRAAGRAAGRAAGR (%)(%)(%)(%) Americas Canada17,127,66616,246,273-2.6117,069,2225.0717,603,5183.130.69 Chile2,698,6593,095,4397.103,374,5539.023,671,7388.818.00 Mexico22,637,44522,467,629-0.3823,430,8634.2924,618,0995.072
4、.12 USA50,502,05150,382,402-0.1252,287,3683.7854,193,7213.651.78 Sub-Total92,965,82192,191,743-0.4296,162,0064.31 100,087,0764.081.86 South Asia Bhutan27,67332,2007.8738,09118.3043,95415.3912.26 India5,366,9666,011,6845.846,228,8693.616,485,4844.124.85 Maldives683,012687,0550.30742,2068.03790,5196.5
5、13.72 Nepal374,661410,1734.63439,6607.19474,1237.846.06 Pakistan822,828869,8722.82930,8077.01986,7196.014.65 Sri Lanka438,475478,4974.46518,7428.41560,0567.966.31 Sub-Total7,713,6158,489,4814.918,898,3754.829,340,8554.974.90 Southeast Asia Cambodia2,001,4342,277,5896.682,498,9289.722,715,1618.657.92
6、 Indonesia6,234,4975,948,342-2.326,243,5994.966,660,8896.681.67 Lao PDR1,736,7871,844,3533.051,987,0047.732,123,5286.875.15 Malaysia22,052,48826,275,7349.1628,713,7619.2830,821,8167.348.73 Myanmar193,319243,55112.24262,1097.62280,1976.909.72 Philippines3,139,4223,100,273-0.633,213,4883.653,354,7334.
7、401.67 Singapore10,115,63810,210,3870.4710,589,3203.7110,948,7163.392.00 Thailand14,536,38214,321,935-0.7415,177,8465.9816,072,7255.902.54 Vietnam4,235,7924,259,7040.284,432,6734.064,557,6802.821.85 Sub-Total64,245,75968,481,8683.2473,118,7286.7777,535,4456.044.81 Northeast Asia China (PRC)130,027,3
8、93132,079,8620.79135,679,6432.73138,863,7792.351.66 Chinese Taipei3,845,1873,850,7890.074,002,2743.934,202,2775.002.24 Hong Kong SAR 29,506,61630,615,2721.8632,260,3065.3733,765,8144.673.43 Japan8,350,8357,245,058-6.868,448,85816.629,012,6186.671.92 Korea (ROK)6,890,8418,888,79913.589,790,47710.1410
9、,493,4987.1811.09 Macau SAR22,907,72422,714,296-0.4223,333,5092.7323,770,0801.870.93 Mongolia451,039497,2895.00519,2584.42543,2894.634.76 Sub-Total201,979,635205,891,3650.96 214,034,3253.95 220,651,3553.092.24 2PATA Tourism Forecasts 2010-2012 Table 1.1 Total Arrivals to Asia Pacific 2008-2012 in Su
10、mmary (continued) COUNTRY2008201008-10201110-11201211-1208-12 AAGRAAGRAAGRAAGR (%)(%)(%)(%) Pacific Australia5,586,4405,732,2311.305,914,6803.186,116,5113.412.29 Cook Islands85,20897,9507.22105,6707.88113,7057.607.48 Fiji583,602586,9670.29626,3496.71664,8206.143.31 Kiribati3,8714,4106.745,10815.835,
11、5999.619.67 Marshall Islands6,0226,6955.447,0945.967,4925.615.61 New Caledonia103,672110,9393.45114,3753.10118,3693.493.37 New Zealand2,458,5032,359,043-2.042,435,0623.222,523,5163.630.65 Niue4,7484,7820.365,1437.555,3574.163.06 Northern Marianas397,274349,319-6.23338,231-3.17335,101-0.93-4.17 Palau
12、79,25981,8831.6489,9529.8599,87011.035.95 Papua New Guinea 120,139139,1107.61155,66311.90174,05411.819.71 Samoa122,163140,2247.14148,8396.14157,3825.746.54 Tahiti196,496181,561-3.88196,4488.20210,3327.071.72 Vanuatu90,656117,58413.89122,7964.43128,8354.929.18 Sub-Total9,838,0539,912,6980.3810,265,41
13、03.5610,660,9433.852.03 Grand Total376,742,883384,967,1551.09 402,478,8444.55 418,275,6743.922.65 Note: AAGR is Average Annual Growth Rate The overall average annual growth rate percent (AAGR%) is given along with the actual forecast values for each period. It can be seen that growth over the foreca
14、st period is expected to range between -4% (Northern Marianas Islands) and 12% (Bhutan). The Northern Marianas Islands is the only destination to project negative growth, however, the overall rate of growth is projected to decline markedly from a previous forecast (2007-2011 edition) of 4.2% to a fo
15、recast of 2.7% for 2008-2012. Previous annual forecasts made in this publication series have projected growth correctly at around 6%. This overall forecast for Asia Pacific represents an important slowing down, and this is primarily the result of the worldwide economic slowdown but also the H1N1 vir
16、us spread. It is quite noticeable that there are few double-digit growth rates projected and that Korea (ROK) stands out in this regard as a major market. The slowdown is forecast to be strongest in the period 2008 to 2010 where overall growth drops to 1.1%. The forecasts for 2011 from 2010 are expe
17、cted to improve to 4.5% growth and then for the period 2011 to 2012 move to 4.0%. However, the previous stable growth of 6% in the early period after SARS from 2004 is not expected to be re-gained in the forecast period. Only 2 destinations are projected to have double-digit growth whereas 16 destin
18、ations had double-digit growth projected in the 2009-2011 forecast edition. Individual growth patterns vary between the destination markets with some having a more severe continued decline in 2010 than others and 11 destinations are expected to have negative growth from 2008 to 2010 while 3 have dou
19、ble-digit positive growth. In the mid forecast period of 2010 to 2011 the growth recovery sets in to some degree with the highest overall growth rate of 4.5% and only 1 negative growth rate (Northern Marianas) and 4 double-digit growth rates. Care needs to be taken to consider the volume of the flow
20、s when reading percentage growth changes, with Korea (ROK) for example having very high projected growth on high volume, while Bhutan also has a high rate of growth, but with a volume not comparable to Korea (ROK). For the world regions, the highest growth is projected for South Asia (4.9%) followed
21、 by Southeast Asia (4.8%), and this has been a consistent pattern since 2007. The Americas has the lowest projected growth of 1.9%. The outstanding aspect is the overall low rates of growth and the evident need for tourism-based businesses to now operate in a lower growth market at least through to
22、2012. 3 PATA Tourism Forecasts 2010-2012 Table 1.2 Top 10 Forecast Asia Pacific Destinations 2012 Rank CountryInternational ArrivalsMarket Share of 201240 Countries (%) 1China (PRC)138,863,77933.20 2USA54,193,72112.96 3Hong Kong SAR33,765,8148.07 4Malaysia30,821,8167.37 5Mexico24,618,0995.89 6Macau
23、SAR23,770,0805.68 7Canada17,603,5184.21 8Thailand16,072,7253.84 9Singapore10,948,7162.62 10Korea (ROK)10,462,8062.50 The arrivals figures for China (PRC), Macau SAR and Hong Kong SAR include domestic transfers and therefore their ranking depends upon this definition. In this report Hong Kong SAR and
24、 Macau SAR are treated as separate destinations because they require passport controls and immigration. Macau SAR has dropped from third to 6th place in this table and Korea (ROK) has replaced Japan in 10th place. 4 INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RECEIPTS IN ASIA PACIFIC MARKETS Table 1.3 summarises the fore
25、cast receipts growth for international tourism to the extent that data limitations allow for analysis. Table 1.3 International Tourism Receipts Forecasts for Asia Pacific 2008-2012 (US$ mil) COUNTRY2008201008-10201110-11201211-1208-12 AAGRAAGRAAGR AAGR (%)(%)(%)(%) Americas Canada16,19115,358-2.6116
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