2013E_ANNUAL_INVESTMENT_STRATEGY–AIRLINE_&_AIRPORT:WATCH_OUT_FOR_SHORT-TERM_OPPORTUNITIES_IN_AIRLINE_STOCKS_AND_FOCUS_ON_GROWTH_STOCKS_IN_GENERAL_AVIATION-2013-01-15.pdf
《2013E_ANNUAL_INVESTMENT_STRATEGY–AIRLINE_&_AIRPORT:WATCH_OUT_FOR_SHORT-TERM_OPPORTUNITIES_IN_AIRLINE_STOCKS_AND_FOCUS_ON_GROWTH_STOCKS_IN_GENERAL_AVIATION-2013-01-15.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《2013E_ANNUAL_INVESTMENT_STRATEGY–AIRLINE_&_AIRPORT:WATCH_OUT_FOR_SHORT-TERM_OPPORTUNITIES_IN_AIRLINE_STOCKS_AND_FOCUS_ON_GROWTH_STOCKS_IN_GENERAL_AVIATION-2013-01-15.pdf(30页珍藏版)》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、 Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report Equity Research Report / Sector Research / Airline expect some airports to post more than 10%- earnings growth in 2013E. Airport operators are less affected by macroeconomic conditions and their earnings have been increasing steadily. Baiyun Intl
2、Airport benefits from the building of an international hub at Guangzhou Airport by China Southern Airlines (CSA) and we expect its earnings to continue to rise briskly in 2013E. Xiamen Intl Airport is likely to see its retail space rental surge after the once-every-four-years non-aviation airport bu
3、siness bidding exercise in 2013E. Given the vast potential for development in general aviation, focus on growth shares. We forecast that the operational hours of general aviation (GA) will increase at a CAGR of 16% or more during the 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period (2011-15). The reform of low-alti
4、tude air space management will be launched nationwide in 2013E. The GA sector is likely to register faster-than-expected growth. Some listed airlines are making preparations for investment in GA. In the initial phase of GA development, service providers and manufacturers in GA-relevant businesses ar
5、e expected to gain. Examples include Haite High-Tech, Wisesoft, Weihai Guangtai Airport Equipment and Sun-create Electronics. Some companies may see their earnings increase at a CAGR of 30-40% over the next three years. Potential risks: (i) Worse-than-expected decline in macro growth may curb demand
6、 and oil price could surge again; (ii) the RMB/USD exchange rate could be highly volatile; (iii) potential adverse outbreaks such as regional tension and pandemics; and (iv) slower-than-forecast growth in GA. CITIC Securities Research Baoliang Su Tel: 010-60838727 Email: Practicing Licence No.: S10
7、10512050002 Hongbo Zhang Tel: 010-84588387 Email: Practicing Licence No.: S1010510120045 Performance relative to index -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 12-01 12-03 12-05 12-07 12-09 12-11 航空机场(中信)沪深300 Source: CITIC Securities Research CSI 300 Airline focus on stocks with growth assurance 11 GA operators A
8、 direct beneficiary 12 ATC system developers and trainers - First to benefit 13 GA aircraft manufacturers - The biggest beneficiary 15 Risks associated with investing in the airline and airport sectors 15 Surging oil prices 15 Regional tension . 16 Wild forex fluctuations . 16 Investment strategy: M
9、onitor oil prices for aviation, pick airports for defensive investing, and focus on GA for growth stocks . 16 Airline investment strategy: Monitor oil prices, and capture investment opportunities amid fluctuations 16 Airport investment strategy: Pick stocks with solid earnings growth 19 GA investmen
10、t strategy: focus on growth stocks 22 2013E Annual Investment Strategy Airline (ii) leading GA operators and maintenance companies, such as Haite High-Tech; and (iii) leaders in GA basic services and equipment sub-sectors, such as Wisesoft, Weihai Guangtai Airport Equipment and Sun-create Electronic
11、s. In the initial phase of GA development, we suggest following Haite High-Tech, Wisesoft, Weihai Guangtai Airport Equipment and Sun-create Electronics. We strongly recommend Haite High-Tech, a prominent subsidiary of the domestic aircraft maintenance group AVIC 1. As the major beneficiary of scale
12、expansion in aviation manufacturing (especially the production of helicopter engine ECU modules) and aviation training, the Company may post an earnings growth at a CAGR of 30-40% over the next three years. In 2012, airline profits declined 40% YoY while airports posted solid profit growth In 1-3Q12
13、, aviation demand picked up from a low level with narrowing YoY growth The domestic aviation industry was in recession with a sluggish demand during 1H12, and registered a 70% drop in profit from the year-ago period. With the fast decline in jet fuel price in May-Jun exerting less cost pressure, air
14、line stocks fared relatively better in 2Q12. After commencing the peak summer season, passenger traffic grew 10.2% YoY in 3Q12 and PLF remained at high levels. However, due to the substantial forex gains during the same period in 2011, airlines posted forex losses in 3Q12. As the result, profits of
15、the airline sector dropped 15% YoY in 3Q12 alone. The airline sector inched up from a low start in 1-3Q12, with passenger turnover growth and passenger traffic growth of 10.6% and 9.2% YoY, respectively. Aviation demand retreated again in Oct 12, resulting in marked slowdown in growth (passenger tra
16、ffic growth +6.8% YoY; 2013E Annual Investment Strategy Airline cargo/mail volume -7.8% YoY). In Oct 12, profits of Chinese airlines plunged 39% YoY. November recorded weak business travel as well as a low season for tourism. We expect preliminary improvement in business travel towards end-Dec 12E.
17、Persistently high cost for aviation fuel and forex losses dragged down 1-3Q12 profits by 40% YoY. In 2012 up to 30 Nov, the airline sector dropped 23% YoY, underperforming the CSI 300 by 14.2ppts. During the 2012 bear market, airline stocks performed relatively well on the back of sharp jet fuel pri
18、ce declines in 2Q12, but could hardly distance itself from the overall downbeat trend. Fig. 1: Earnings of A-share airline companies vs. GDP and CPI growth -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 200803 200806 200809 200812 200903 200906 200909 200912 201003 201006 201009 201012 201103 201106
19、201109 201112 201203 201206 201209 201212 (4) (2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 净利润(左轴)亿元CPI同比增速(右轴)%GDP同比增速(右轴)% Source: CAAC, CITIC Securities Research Fig. 2: PLF of domestic airlines, 2010-12 (%) Source: CAAC, CITIC Securities Research Fig. 3: Airfare trend of domestic airlines Source: CAAC, CITIC Securiti
20、es Research Fig. 4: YoY decline in profit of Big Four domestic airlines, 1-3Q12 (%) -46.2% -37.0% -55.0% -30.9% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 中国国航东方航空南方航空海南航空 Source: Respective companies, CITIC Securities Research Airport operators posted steady rise in earnings Domestic airport revenue mainly c
21、omes from aviation and non-aviation businesses, which accounted for 65% and 35% of their total revenue in 2011. In 2012, business travel faced Net profit (Rmb 100mn, L) CPI growth (YoY, %, R) GDP growth (YoY, %, R) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Domestic routes combined air ticket i
22、ndex International routes (excl. Asia) air ticket index Asia, Hong Kong and Macau routes air ticket index AC CEA CSA HA 2013E Annual Investment Strategy Airline Xiamen Intl Airport: +14.6% YoY). A-share airport stocks are valued at 10x prospective 2012E PER, representing an advantage versus internat
23、ional peers. As of 30 Nov 12, the airport sector outperformed the CSI 300 by 5.5ppts. Fig. 5: Performance of airline/aviation vs. CSI 300 in 2012 (as of 30 Nov 12) - 8 . 8 % - 1 3 . 7 % - 3 . 3 % - 2 3 . 0 % - 2 5 % - 2 0 % - 1 5 % - 1 0 % - 5 % 0 % Source: Wind, CITIC Securities Research Fig. 6: Pe
24、rformance of airports vs. CSI 300 in 2012 (as of 30 Nov 12) - 8 . 8 % 9 . 7 % - 2 . 6 % - 3 . 6 % - 1 5 . 7 % - 2 0 % - 1 5 % - 1 0 % - 5 % 0 % 5 % 1 0 % 1 5 % 3 0 0 Source: Wind, CITIC Securities Research Fig. 7: Profit growth of Big Four domestic airports, 1-3Q12 1 6 . 3 % 1 4 . 6 % 3 . 4 % - 1 5
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 2013 E_ANNUAL_INVESTMENT_STRATEGY AIRLINE_ amp_AIRPORT WATCH_OUT_FOR_SHORT TERM_OPPORTUNITIES_IN_AIRLINE_STOCKS_AND_FOCUS_ON_GROWTH_STOCKS_IN_GENERAL_AVIATION
链接地址:https://www.31doc.com/p-3727569.html