BMI China Freight Transport Report Q3 2011.pdf
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1、Q3 2011 freight transport report issn 1752-5756 published by Business Monitor international Ltd. China INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 email: web: http:/ 2011 Business Monitor Int
2、ernational. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graph
3、ic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believe
4、d to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissi
5、ons affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. CHINA FREIGHT TRANSPORT REPORT Q3 2011 INCLUDES 5-YEAR F
6、ORECASTS TO 2015 Part of BMIs Industry Survey however, we note that Chinas rail network sector is undergoing a major expansion both domestically an abroad with the next few years expected to see a growth in rail freight links to neighbouring countries. We caution that the growth in Chinas rail netwo
7、rk threatens the market share of the countrys airfreight sector which has been struggling with overcapacity in recent months. Nevertheless, we forecast growth in Chinas air cargo volumes to increase by 5.9% in 2011 partly as a result of companies expanding direct flight routes between China and Euro
8、pe. Headline Industry Data ? 2011 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 5.9%; ? 2011 rail freight is forecast to grow by 4.4%; ? 2011 Port of Shanghai throughput is forecast to grow by 4.5%; ? 2011 road freight is forecast to grow by 4.9%; ? 2011 total real trade growth is forecast by 5.4%. Key
9、 Industry Trends Rail Sector Flexes Muscle Overseas In April rail freight operator DB Schenker announced the testing a new 10,300km freight rail line between China and Germany. A container train was run from Chongqing in China and arrived in Duisburg, Germany, after 16 days, passing through Kazakhst
10、an, Russia, Belarus and Poland on the way. The line is expected to half ocean transit time between China and Germany. In a separate announcement, the Chinese government was reported to be involved in a project to link the Pakistani port of Gwadar to Pakistans national rail network. Air Operators Res
11、ilient Despite Shrinking Market Share The expansion of Chinas rail network has raised concerns as to the long-term prospects for the countrys airlines, both from a freight and passenger perspective. However, the recent indicators of business sentiment within the industry have been positive with seve
12、ral new air freight services launched over the China Freight Transport Report Q3 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 course of Q211. In April Air China Cargo marked the opening of a new freighter flight service from North China to Europe, becoming the first airline to offer the freighter
13、service from Dalian to Europe. Risks To Outlook Risks to Chinas freight transport sector are primarily to the downside, with our growth projections for all modes contingent on the strength of the countrys international trade volumes. Despite encouraging signs of recovery in consumer demand in Chinas
14、 main export markets - the US and eurozone - we caution that there is potential for contraction in trade with a number of the countrys main bilateral trade partners, not least Japan whose economy continues to fell the effects of Marchs earthquake. The possibility of a deterioration in the economic c
15、limate in the eurozone remains a further concern with parts of the region still at risk of credit default, contagion from which threatens to undermine the recovery in major consumer markets such as France and Germany. China Freight Transport Report Q3 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 S
16、WOT Analysis China Freight Transport SWOT Strengths ? China is now one of the worlds largest - and fastest growing - economies, and a member of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) group. ? The Chinese market for freight transport is one of the most vibrant in the world. Weaknesses ? Significant
17、investment has gone into transport infrastructure but it has not always kept up with the pace and shifting pattern of growth, leading to congestion and bottlenecks. ? Safety and environmental standards are sometimes deficient. Opportunities ? Chinas location enables it to meet its import needs and t
18、he needs of its export partners as its ports have access to major shipping routes across the Pacific to the US and proximity to other Asian markets such as Japan and South Korea. ? Geography also positions China favourably for future development of land-based freight routes through to Europe, such a
19、s proposed rail-based revivals of the Silk Route. Threats ? While committed to market-friendly regulation, Chinas government still protects state- owned enterprises and can change the rules of the game at short notice in a way that adversely affects foreign-owned freight China Political SWOT Strengt
20、hs ? The Communist Party of China, which has governed for 60 years, remains secure in its position as the sole political party in China. ? Chinas expanding economy is gradually giving it greater clout in international affairs, which will allow it to build politically important ties, especially with
21、the developing world. Weaknesses ? As with any other one-party state, Chinas political system is inherently unstable and unable to respond to the wider changes taking place in society. Provincial governments often fail to enforce central government directives. ? Although bilateral ties have warmed s
22、ince the election of Ma Ying-jeou as Taiwanese president in March 2008, Chinas relationship with Taiwan remains problematic, with Beijing refusing to rule out the threat of force in the event of a declaration of independence by Taiwan. Opportunities ? China is actively expanding its political and ec
23、onomic ties with major emerging markets such as Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. ? A new generation of leaders (the so-called fifth generation) is being prepared to take power in 2012-2013. This should ensure the continuation of reform and modernisation. Threats ? Growing corruption, widen
24、ing inequalities, increasing rural poverty and environmental degradation have led to an increase in social unrest in recent years. ? The Communist Party is facing increasing factional rifts based on ideology and regionalism. While greater political debate would be welcomed by many, internal regime s
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