BMI Malaysia Commercial Banking Report Q4 2011.pdf
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1、Q4 2011 commercial Banking report iSSn 1747-8642 published by Business monitor international ltd. malaYSia INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International Senator House 85 Queen Victoria Street London, EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2011 B
2、usiness Monitor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or
3、 by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled f
4、rom sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, ina
5、ccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. MALAYSIA COMMERCIAL BANKING REPORT Q4
6、 2011 INCLUDING 5-YEAR INDUSTRY FORECASTS TO 2015 Part of BMIs Industry Report this is increasingly likely to become the case in emerging markets as inflation fears give way to growth concerns. This should keep short-term borrowing costs low. However, this is going hand-in-hand with a weaker growth
7、profile, which will ensure that deflation and higher default rates remain a risk. Global growth momentum is slowing, and we have lowered our real GDP expansion forecast for 2011 to 3.2% from 3.5%. We continue to believe that the world will avoid a double-dip recession, and our 2012 global growth num
8、ber represents a relative improvement upon 2011. However, with several key economies stalling, including those of the US, eurozone and China, significant risks remain. In general our country banking sector forecasts incorporate faster growth in emerging markets than in developed states, but the post
9、-2008 crisis period is unlikely to be as dynamic as the preceding decade in terms of banking sector growth. Furthermore, increasingly onerous regulations on capital adequacy ratios and lending standards will constrain earnings growth for years to come, particularly in developed states. Here, we expl
10、ain our banking sector views on a regional basis: ? US and eurozone: The eurozone banking sector is under major duress as the integrity of the monetary bloc itself is thrown into question. Macroeconomic headwinds have increased markedly over recent months as the eurozone sovereign debt crisis intens
11、ifies. Core European banks are now in the line of fire due to the significant exposure such firms have via their peripheral bond holdings, subsidiary operations and faltering confidence within the interbank market. In the US, a potential double-dip recession would curtail the fragile recovery in ban
12、k lending and push up loan default rates. The loss of the governments AAA sovereign credit rating on August 5 also throws up major questions for financial institutions, including whether money market funds and borrowing collateral will be affected by Treasury holdings being rated below AAA. Malaysia
13、 Commercial Banking Report Q4 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 15 Set To Stall? Eurozone Total Loans To Non-MFIs Excluding General Government, EURbn Source: BMI ? Emerging Europe: Overall, a continued recovery in growth remains our core scenario for emerging European commercial banking s
14、ectors. The return of access to international capital markets, positive economic growth, and greater confidence in the macroeconomic outlook has seen deposit volumes surge, bolstering balance sheets. While banks in the hardest hit countries had been hesitant to extend credit to their respective dome
15、stic economies initially, instead placing large cash positions in government securities, this situation seems to be turning, with credit growth across emerging Europe picking up steam. However, we caution that significant risks to banking sector stability persist. We highlight Turkey, Ukraine and so
16、uth eastern Europe as particularly vulnerable to negative shocks. Malaysia Commercial Banking Report Q4 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 16 Three-Speed Emerging Europe Emerging Europe Banking Sector Client Loan Growth Source: BMI, central banks ? Emerging Asia: We are concerned about sev
17、eral potential global risks to the Asian banking sectors. In the case of Europe, the risk of a freeze on bank lending to Asia as seen in 2009 is acute. There are several possible channels through which a eurozone crisis could impact Asias banking sectors, including direct losses on exposure to euroz
18、one assets; withdrawal of portfolio assets in Asia by European banks; contagion leading to concerns over the regions fiscal weak links; and a reduction in European bank lending to Asia. In the case of the US, the largest risk appears to be a double-dip recession, which we believe would lead to a har
19、d landing for the Chinese. ? Latin America: We believe the deterioration in investor perceptions of the Latin American consumer will continue to weigh on banks performances over the next few months. Yet while several economies are at risk from excessive consumer leveraging, we do not believe this wa
20、rrants a downgrade to our constructive outlook for the sector as a whole. Of all the major regional economies, Brazil is most at risk from excess leveraging. Malaysia Commercial Banking Report Q4 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 17 Brazil, Chile And Panama Stand Out Latin America Consume
21、r Credit, % GDP Source: BMI, FELEBAN ? Middle East and North Africa: Despite the more difficult operating environment that has arisen as a result of the regional political turmoil, the outlook for the majority of banks across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains cautiously optimist
22、ic. Certainly, our core views on the diverging outlook for financial institutions remains in play, with banks located in politically stable hydrocarbon-rich states in the Gulf fundamentally better positioned than those located or heavily exposed to North Africa and the Levant, as we head into the la
23、tter months of 2011. ? Sub-Saharan Africa: The regions major banking sectors (South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya) are all continuing their recoveries, albeit with varying degrees of strength. Forecast strong economic growth will boost incomes, which will in turn enable an increase in deposits and great
24、er take-up of banking services. Rebounding economic activity and improved liquidity are bolstering banking sector growth. Malaysia Commercial Banking Report Q4 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 18 Asia Banking Sector Outlook Assessing the Contagion Risks of the European and US Crises With
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