BMI Mexico Business Forecast Report Q4 2011.pdf
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5、warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Includes 10-year forecasts to end-2017 Published by BusIness MonItor InternatIonal ltd Business Forecast report Q4 2011 Mexico include
6、s 10-year forecast to 2020 Still Not Convinced About The Consumer issn 1744-8891 published by Business Monitor international Ltd. copy Deadline: 14 July 2011 2 Business Monitor international Mexico Q4 2011 Mexico MacroeconoMic Data anD Forecasts, 2006-2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f
7、 2014f 2015f Population, mn 5104.2105.3106.4107.4108.5109.5110.4111.3112.2113.1 nominal GdP, us$bn 6951.71,036.41,089.6884.01,040.21,202.71,357.81,500.41,640.71,734.7 nominal GdP, MXnbn 610,379.111,320.812,200.111,929.513,137.214,347.915,274.816,129.517,022.717,998 GdP per capita, us$ 69,1329,84410,
8、2458,2289,58510,98512,29613,47614,61915,338 real GdP growth, % change y-o-y 1,65.23.31.5-6.15.54.12.62.42.42.6 industrial production index, % y-o-y, ave 75.72.0-0.7-1.36.13.62.43.03.03.1 unemployment, % of labour force, eop 83.53.44.34.84.94.43.83.83.53.2 Budget balance, MXnbn 99.94.8-8.0-273.5-370.
9、6-351.4-285.7-154.1-72.4-73.9 Budget balance, % of GdP 100.10.0-0.1-2.3-2.8-2.5-1.9-1.0-0.4-0.4 consumer prices, % y-o-y, eop 94.03.86.53.64.43.83.03.03.03.0 consumer prices, % y-o-y, ave 93.63.95.15.34.24.13.43.03.03.0 exchange rate MXn/us$, eop 1110.8010.8913.6513.0612.3611.5011.0010.5010.2510.50
10、exchange rate MXn/us$, ave 1110.9110.9211.2013.4912.6311.9311.2510.7510.3810.38 exchange rate MXn/eur, eop 1114.2515.8919.1116.5916.5316.4514.7413.1212.8113.12 central bank policy rate, % 2,97.007.508.254.504.504.505.005.505.505.50 Goods exports, us$bn 9249.9271.9291.3229.7298.4319.2344.8372.4405.94
11、42.4 Goods imports, us$bn 9256.1281.9308.6234.4301.5322.6348.4376.3410.1447 Balance of trade in goods, us$bn 9-6.1-10.1-17.3-4.7-3.1-3.3-3.6-3.9-4.2-4.6 Balance of trade in goods and services, us$bn 7-11.9-16.4-24.6-13.1-12.7-12.3-13.6-13.9-14.2-15.1 current account, us$bn 10-4.8-9.0-16.4-6.3-5.7-7.
12、4-7.2-7.0-6.4-6.3 current account, % of GdP 10-0.5-0.9-1.5-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.4 foreign reserves ex gold, us$bn 1267.778.085.490.8113.6125.0135.0145.0155.0170.0 import cover, months g 2 Target Rate, Before 2005 TIIE (91-day) rate used; 3 Includes Pidiregas Public Sector Debt; 4 Public and pub
13、lically guaranteed external debt stock + Government Domestic Debt; Sources: 5 World Bank/BMI calculation/BMI. 6 INEGI/IBMI Calculation; 7 Banxico/BMI Calculation; 8 INEGI; 9 Banxico; 10 Banxico / BMI Calculation; 11 BMI; 12 IMF / Banxico; 13 IMF/BMI Calculation; 14 SHCP; 15 SHCP / BMI; 16 GDF/Banxic
14、o/BMI. 3 Business Monitor international contents executive summary . 5 core Views 5 Major Forecast changes 5 Key risk to outlook 5 chapter 1: political outlook 7 sWot analysis 7 BMi political risk ratings 7 Domestic politics.8 opposition Boost For 2012 a dramatic victory for the opposition Partido
15、revolucionario institucional (Pri) in the July 3 state elections is a strong signal of voter preferences for next years general elections. taBLe: poLiticaL oVerVieW .8 Long-term political outlook 9 inertia to cap Development The constant struggle to introduce far-reaching social and economic reforms
16、 will be the defining characteristic of Mexican politics beyond the 2012 elections. chapter 2: economic outlook . 13 sWot analysis 13 BMi economic risk ratings .13 economic activity .14 no upward revision to Growth at present, Mexican economic activity looks strong, but with the consumer story not y
17、et convincing and high oil prices likely to dampen demand for exports, we are happy to stick to what is now a below-consensus real GdP growth projection of 4.1% for 2011. taBLe: econoMic actiVitY .14 Balance of payments 16 no improvement in external account Not only does Mexicos Q111 balance of paym
18、ents data support our view that the current account deficit is structural in nature, but it also reinforces our concerns that a painful withdrawal of short-term capital is on the cards if the authorities fail to act to stem rampant portfolio inflows. taBLe: current account 16 Monetary policy .18 No
19、Inflationary Fears Here taBLe: MonetarY poLicY .18 Fiscal policy .19 Gradual Decline in sovereign credentials We do not expect Mexico to reduce its public sector debt burden to pre-crisis lows for the duration of our 10-year forecast. taBLe: FiscaL poLicY .19 Banking sector 20 4 Business Monitor int
20、ernational Mexico Q4 2011 chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 23 the Mexican economy to 2020 .23 structural Barriers to Keep Growth subdued sound macroeconomic policies should help Mexico register sustained levels of economic activity going forward, averaging 2.6% real GdP growth between 2012 and 2020, acc
21、ording to our forecasts. taBLe: LonG-terM MacroeconoMic Forecasts, 2013-2020 23 chapter 4: Business environment 25 sWot analysis 25 BMi Business environment risk ratings .25 Business environment outlook 26 institutions 26 taBLe: BMi Business anD operation risK ratinGs 26 taBLe: BMi LeGaL FraMeWorK r
22、atinG .27 infrastructure 28 taBLe: LaBour Force QuaLitY .28 Market orientation 29 taBLe: Latin aMerica, annuaL FDi inFLoWs 29 taBLe: traDe anD inVestMent ratinGs 30 operational risk .31 taBLe: top export Destinations, 2002-2009 31 chapter 5: Key sectors 33 pharmaceutical .33 taBLe: prescription DruG
23、 saLes inDicators, 2007-2015 34 taBLe: patenteD DruG saLes inDicators, 2007-2015 35 telecommunications .35 Table: Telecoms secTor INTerNeT HIsTorIcal DaTa Sources: 2 INEGI/IBMI Calculation. 3 World Bank/BMI calculation/BMI; 4 Banxico/BMI Calculation; 5 INEGI domestic demand for vehicles has been muc
24、h less impressive. This trend has been reflected in other sectors of the economy, with Walmart de Mxico reporting a 1.1% y-o-y decline in same-store sales in March this year, after a tepid 1.8% expansion in February. With the bulk of new private sector credit still going to corporations rather than
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