APPLE_INC.(AAPL):A_TOUGH_SETBACK_BUT_THE_STORY_IS_NOT_BROKEN-2013-01-25.pdf
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1、 January 24, 2013 COMPANY UPDATE Apple Inc. (AAPL) Buy Equity Research A tough setback, but the story is not broken Whats changed Apple reported 1QFY2013 revenues of $54.51 billion, above our estimate of $53.56 billion and just below consensus of $54.73 billion. EPS of $13.81 was above our estimate
2、of $12.58 and consensus of $13.44. Gross margins of 38.6% and operating margins of 31.6% were above our forecast of 37.0% and 29.4%. iPhone, iPad, and Mac units all fell slightly short of our expectations, although more resilient margins led to the slight EPS beat. Apples guidance was essentially wh
3、at we expected from the typically conservative management team. The problem, and the key disappointment in the call, was that management made it pretty clear that it was moving towards providing more realistic guidance. In this case, the guidance was a definitive disappointment. Implications In the
4、end, Apple clearly didnt perform as well as we had hoped. While the iPhone product cycle was relatively robust in the December quarter, it clearly hasnt been able to deliver the upside that Apple investors have been accustomed to and the post-holiday demand for the product appears disappointing as w
5、ell. As a result of this quarters disappointment, we are lowering our 12-month price target and our FY2013-FY2015 revenue estimates by 2-6% and our EPS estimates by 6-14%. Nevertheless, we are maintaining our CL-Buy due to our optimism that new products in the coming months will reinvigorate new use
6、r growth, with a sticky installed base serving as a baseline for valuation support. Valuation We are reducing our 12-month target price to $660 from $760. Our new target price is based on a 14X multiple (unchanged) on our new CY2013 EPS estimate ($47.13 from $54.54 prior). We reiterate our CL Buy. K
7、ey risks Delayed product cycles, supply chain difficulties, product price erosion, and a slower pace of product innovation. INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Americas Buy List Americas Conviction Buy List GS SUSTAIN Focus List Coverage View: Neutral Bill Shope, CFA (212) 902-6834 Goldman, Sachs stocks not
8、 so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions below. Price target and rating history chart(s) Regulatory disclosures Disclosures requi
9、red by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of cli
10、ent relationships; managed/co- managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs usually makes a market in fixed income securities of issuers discussed in this report and usually deals as a principal in these securiti
11、es. The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst s area of coverage. Analyst compe
12、nsation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director,
13、advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst s area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Goldman, Sachs Japan: See below. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from
14、Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. New Zealand: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited and its affiliates are neither “registered banks“ nor “deposit takers“ (as defined in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989) in New Zealand. This research, and any access to it, is intended for “wholesale cl
15、ients“ (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008) unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpo
16、se and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W). Taiwan: This material is for ref
17、erence only and must not be reprinted without permission. Apple Inc. (AAPL) 760 810 790 850 750 700 660 600 550 520 480 525 485 470 450 430 270 240 230 220 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history Stock Price Currency : U.S. Doll
18、ar Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 12/31/2012. The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, which may or may not have included price targets, as well as developments r
19、elating to the company, its industry and financial markets. Rating Price target Price target at removal Covered by Bill Shope, CFA, as of Dec 12, 2010 Not covered by current analyst S however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional
20、Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the p
21、rice target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A
22、 list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at http:/ The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst s investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group s historical fundamentals and/or valuat
23、ion. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group s historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group s historical fundamentals and/or
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