BMI Chile Shipping Report Q4 2010.pdf
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1、Q4 2010 shipping RepoRt issn 2041-6598 published by Business Monitor international Ltd. ChiLe INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2010 Business Mon
2、itor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any mea
3、ns graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources
4、 believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies o
5、r omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. CHILE SHIPPING REPORT Q4 2010 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FO
6、RECASTS TO 2014 Part of BMIs Industry Report however, we believe this will not be a negative for day-to-day macroeconomic management. Data from Chiles main ports confirm rising levels of activity in 2010 as both the local and global economies remain on a recovery path. For the Port of San Antonio (P
7、OSA) BMI is forecasting 11.2% growth in total tonnage this year, after an 8.3% drop in 2009. For the five years across the 2010-2014 forecast period we believe POSA tonnage will reach an impressive average annual growth rate of 9.6%, well ahead of GDP. At the Port of Valparaiso (POV) meanwhile, tonn
8、age, which fell by a massive 26.7% in 2009, will recover strongly with growth expected to reach 17.4% in 2010, followed by 16.6% in 2011. Average annual growth over the forecast period to 2014 will be considerably stronger than POSA at 15.9%. On the box side, POV will experience 2010 growth of 22.1%
9、. In San Antonio, container growth this year will be 13.4%. Chile Shipping Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 Chiles foreign trade is forecast to recovery strongly in 2010. Imports will expand by 46.1% in nominal terms to US$72.78bn. In real (volume) terms overall imports will
10、grow by 19% this year, offsetting the 14.3% contraction experienced in 2009. Exports will grow slower than imports both in value terms - up by 44.2% to US$90.25bn - and in real or volume terms, gaining by 14%. We believe the main risks to our Chile ports and shipping forecasts are on the downside. T
11、he main domestic risk is of a political deadlock in Congress between the centre-right government and the centre- left opposition, which, in certain circumstances, could hold back reforms and have a negative effect on domestic growth. The main external risk is of a larger-than-expected double dip slo
12、wdown in world economic growth in 2011, with knock-on effects on Chilean trade volumes. Chile Shipping Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 SWOT Analysis Chile Shipping SWOT Strengths ! Chiles Pacific Coast location has enabled it to establish strong bilateral trade links with Ch
13、ina and other Asian markets. ! Chilean ports are ports of call on Evergreen, K-Line, Hapag-Lloyd and Hamburg Sd services. ! Chiles port sector is the best developed in Latin America - ranked 27th out of 133 nations surveyed in the World Economic Forums 2010 Global Competitiveness Report. Weaknesses
14、! Further instances of industrial action, such as that seen at the Port of Antofagasta, may disrupt cargo throughput in 2010. ! The countrys largest container port, Valparaso, suffers from heavy congestion, which has been exacerbated by the countrys recent earthquake. Opportunities ! A robust recove
15、ry in Chiles trade volumes is forecast in 2010 with metal and mineral production driving export growth. ! A strong recovery in South American container trades should boost the fortunes of shipping lines. Threats ! The impact of Februarys major earthquake continues to be felt with the cost of redevel
16、oping the port of Talcahuano estimated at about US$250mn. ! Appreciation of the Chilean peso may hurt the countrys export sector, as it did in 2009. ! A slow-down in Chinese demand for copper and other raw materials may stifle export growth in H210 and 2011. ! The outcome of the recent presidential
17、election on funding for ports and other freight infrastructure has yet to be determined. Chile Shipping Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 Global Overview Container Overview Weakening consumer demand in the US coupled with austerity packages in Europe is likely to see the stren
18、gth of the year-on-year (y-o-y) recovery in the container shipping sector in H110 slip in H210 and 2011, as box lines traditional demand markets tighten their belts. Although we do not expect volumes to slip to the bad days of the 2009 downturn, the recovery will slow, meaning that for many carriers
19、 and ports it will take longer for throughput volumes to recover to the levels seen prior to the downturn in 2008. Although BMI is fearful of potential overcapacity still in the market, especially as volumes begin to slip and a huge new-build orderbook waits in the wings, we note that container line
20、s now have experience of operating in a tough market and have a number of strategies, such as slow-steaming and idling vessels, in place to weather difficult times. We believe that carriers have benefited from the uptick in volumes witnessed in H110 and through careful management of capacity and rat
21、e increases are on course for a return to profit in 2010. Lines will, however, need to continue to manage both rate levels and capacity at the end of 2010 and into 2011 if they wish to remain in profit as volumes are expected to fall. To mitigate this risk, BMI believes that although lines will cont
22、inue to keep their exposure on the major routes of Transpacific and Asia-Europe, they will also increase their coverage in new regions that offer potential growth; BMI believes Intra-Asia to be an obvious candidate. Key Views ! Y-o-y recovery but not near 2008 levels ! Consumer demand in core box ma
23、rkets of US and Europe to fall ! Weakening demand view starting to play out as peak-season surcharges delayed ! Recovery signs in H1 could have been misleading ! Intra-Asia trade routes an area of potential growth and development ! Y-o-y Recovery Yes, Full Recovery No Chile Shipping Report Q4 2010 B
24、usiness Monitor International Ltd Page 9 As expected, the recovery in the container shipping sector so far in 2010 has seen throughput volumes begin to recover, and throughput levels are so far above those witnessed in H109, but are still some way off 2008 volumes, lending credence to BMI s view tha
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