Australia Mining Report Q3 2012.pdf
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1、Q3 2012 mining RepoRt iSSn 1755-7763 published by Business monitor international Ltd. AUStRALiA INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2012 Business Monitor Internatio
2、nal. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, ele
3、ctronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be
4、 accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions aff
5、ecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. AUSTRALIA MINING REPORT Q3 2012 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 20
6、16 Part of BMIs Industry Report full operating costs exclude depreciation and capital charges. Source: CRU, AMM, Aladdiny, Alcoa Analysis 5. Global Coal Trade Flows To Centre In Asia Global coal trade flows will continue to move towards Asia in the coming years as we expect Asia to be the only regio
7、n in the world to increase the share of coal in total electricity generation. China will be the main driver of coal imports, despite strong domestic Chinese supply growth, as imported coal prices will remain very competitive relative to domestic Chinese coal (see Trade To Centre In Asia, May 10 2012
8、). Australia Mining Report Q3 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 18 Asia Coal Power Share To Increase Coal Power Generation As % Of Total Power Generation, Rebased Source: BMI estimates. Note: 2006 = 100 Using our BMI Power forecasts, we see that only the Asian region is set to increase it
9、s share of coal as a percentage of total electricity during our forecast period from 58.1% in 2006 to 63.1% in 2016. Of the 10,518TWh (terawatt hours) of electricity we expect Asia to produce by 2016, we believe that 6,639TWh of this will come from coal. From 2006 to 2016, coal power generation as a
10、 percentage of total electricity generation in the African, European, Latin American, and North American regions is set to decline. Australia: Mining Sector Outlook BMI View: We expect Australias mining sector value will reach US$122.6bn by 2016 growing at an annual average rate of 4.3% over the for
11、ecast period, from US$99.6bn in 2011. This growth will be driven by iron ore production, which accounts for a large portion of the mining sector value as calculated by output. This forecast is above and beyond our expectations for the wider economy and thus we expect the mining sector to account for
12、 9.1% of GDP in 2016, up from 6.8% in 2011. Despite our strong mineral volume growth forecasts, our expectations of a strong decline in commodity prices in line with our negative view on the Chinese economy lead us to our more modest annual average growth estimate of 4.3% from 2011 to 2016 for Austr
13、alias mining industry value. We expect the value of Australias mining industry to reach US$122.6bn by 2016, a modest increase from its 2011 value of US$99.6bn. Australia Mining Report Q3 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 19 Energy Minerals To Lead Growth We continue to hold the view that
14、emerging economies, including the key emerging economies of China and Indonesia that are near Australia, will have stronger growth than developing economies. Increased wealth and economic growth will lead to a net increase in per capita energy demand. In the Asian region, coal will remain the domina
15、nt form of fuel for electricity generation given its price and the ready availability of the material. This bodes well for Australias coal mining industry especially as Indonesia scales back on its coal exports given Indonesias own surging domestic energy needs. We expect coal production in Australi
16、a to grow at an annual average rate of 8.3% from 2011 to reach 669mnt (million tonnes) by 2016. In a similar vein, we expect uranium production growth to be very strong with an annual rate of 12% from 2011 onwards to reach 12.3kt by 2016. Volume Growth To Be Offset By Price Declines Australia Mining
17、 Industry Value Forecast f = forecasts. Source: BMI Steady Flow Of Base Metal Projects A steady flow of new projects coming online and expansions from existing mines lead us to our positive growth forecast across all base metals. From the forecast period 2012 to 2016, we expect annual average growth
18、 rates of 6.3%, 7.8%, 4.4% and 5.8% for bauxite, copper, nickel and zinc production, respectively. We are most positive on copper production in the long run as we expect the opening of BHP Billitons giant copper-silver-uranium Olympic Dam mine somewhere by late 2016. The mine has a designed producti
19、on capacity of 570ktpa (thousand tonnes per annum), easily making it one of the largest mines in Australia Mining Report Q3 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 20 the world. We are more moderate in our zinc and nickel forecasts given production cuts in key operating mines such as the 500ktp
20、a Century zinc mine and BHPs Nickel West nickel operations. Australia Mining Report Q3 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 21 Industry Forecast Iron Ore: Fortescue Metals To Jump Start Growth BMI View: Despite our negative view on the Chinese economy, we still expect strong growth in iron o
21、re production from Australia mainly due to the low production costs of the new mines and mine expansions that will be coming online in the coming years. Although global production will likely be hit, production declines would likely come first from high-cost Chinese mines. Australias third-largest i
22、ron ore miner Fortescue Metals will be the main driver of growth in the near term as the company pursues its goal to become a 150mntpa (million tonnes per annum) capacity iron ore miner. The company alone is set to add more than 100mnt (million tonnes) of production capacity by 2013 as it expands th
23、e Chichester Hub and Solomon Hub operations. For comparison, 2011 Australian iron ore production was just 488mnt. In the global stage, Australian mine expansion and green field developments will also be the main drivers of iron ore export supply growth. Beyond production ramp ups in the Chichester a
24、nd Solomon hubs, the company also has a number of brown field and green field exploration projects that have the potential to bring total production to more than 300mntpa in the long run. In late 2011 and early 2012, Fortescue announced a number of significant resource upgrades in its properties. In
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