BMI Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011.pdf
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1、Q3 2011 oil Forecasts - BMI Malaysia Oil Forecasts - BMI Malaysia Oil however, according to TNB and Sarawak Energy, it is near completion, although no specific details have been announced. Observers have said the electricity from the scheme could be available earlier than expected, with initial com
2、missioning now expected in August 2010. This would bring one 300MW unit onstream. After that, the second and subsequent turbines would be able to commence operations at two-month intervals, according to industry insiders. By the end of 2011, Bakun could be South East Asias biggest power project. In
3、May 2009, a local newspaper, cited by Reuters, reported that TNB was also planning to build two hydro-power units in the north-eastern Kelantan state, which could cost as much as MYR2.8bn (US$802.7mn). The company is still in discussions with the government to take part in the venture. The units wil
4、l have a combined capacity of 700MW. The State Grid Corp of China (SGCC) is planning to invest US$6-8bn in three hydro-power plants and an aluminium smelter in Sarawak on Malaysian Borneo. The plans are some of the first major investments to be announced under the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energ
5、y (Score) development initiative for hydro-power and heavy industries. The investment will be made through a joint venture with Malaysian government investment company 1MDB. SGCC and 1MDB signed a deal for the plans in a private ceremony, according to a source cited by the Malaysian Star. An officia
6、l ceremony is planned for early-2010. BMI is predicting 15.3TWh of hydro-power generation by 2015, accounting for a potential 10.9% of total generation. The Malaysian government is seeking to intensify the development of renewable energy, particularly biomass, as the fifth fuel resource under the co
7、untrys Fuel Diversification Policy. The policy, set out in Malaysia Oil Sources: 2 Bank Negara Malaysia, BMI. 3 World Bank/BMI calculation/BMI; 4 Department of Statistics, BMI. Malaysia Oil na = not available/applicable. Source: BMI, *FY ended March 31 2009 Overview/State Role Petronas is responsibl
8、e for the countrys oil and gas supplies. The company is state owned but has listed subsidiaries in fuels retailing and natural gas distribution. Using PSCs, Malaysia has attracted IOCs such as ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Total and ConocoPhillips. The state company has a 72% share of Malaysias cru
9、de oil output, 73% of its natural gas output and accounts for almost 60% of refining capacity. Subsidiary Petronas Dagangan operates a network of 912 service stations and has just over 44% of the fuels market. Licensing And Regulation The Petroleum Development Act of 1974 established Petronas as a s
10、tate-owned company with exclusive rights of ownership, exploration and production. According to Malaysias energy ministry, Petronas is responsible for all upstream planning, investment and regulation. Companies become involved in Malaysias upstream sector through PSAs with Petronas. Malaysia Oil *FY
11、 ended March 31 2010 Table: Key Downstream Players Company Refining capacity (000b/d) Market share (%) Retail outlets Market share (%) Petronas/Petronas Dagangan 217* 46 925 43 Shell Malaysia 109 23 900e na ExxonMobil Malaysia 86 18 540 na Caltex Oil Malaysia na na 420 na ConocoPhillips 61 13 na na
12、LTAT (Armed Forces Fund Board, formerly BP Malaysia) na na 240 na * Total of 278,000b/d less Conocos 61,000b/d share of Melaka II capacity. na = not available/applicable. Source: Company data 2009 Malaysia Oil PM322, 60%), one is in development (PM329, 70%) and two are at the exploration stage (Bloc
13、k 2C, 40%; SK310, 30%). Net output in Q109 averaged 16,000b/d from seven shallow water fields. Bayfield has been forced to postpone some of its Malaysian investments planned for 2009-2010 because of global economic conditions. In April 2009, Newfield announced a gas discovery with its Paus-1 explora
14、tion well at Block 2C off Sarawak. The Paus-1 exploration well was drilled using the semi-submersible rig Ocean Rover in February 2009. Newfield is the operator of Block 2C with a 40% stake, working alongside Petronas with 40% and Mitsubishi with the remaining 20%. Malaysia Oil Upstream Oil Downstre
15、am Oil Both the upstream BER and downstream BER are composed of Rewards/Risks sub-ratings, which themselves comprise industry-specific and broader country risk components; Rewards: Evaluates the sectors size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry and state characteristics that
16、 may inhibit its development; Risks: Evaluates both industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the states political and economic profile that call into question the likelihood of expected returns being realised over the assessed time period. Malaysia Oil low penetration scores highly. Growth
17、 outlook Oil demand growth (2009-2014) Indicators used as proxies for BMIs market assumptions, with strong growth accorded higher scores. Gas demand growth (2009-2014) Refining capacity growth (2009- 2014) Import dependence Refining capacity vs. oil demand, % (2009-2014) Indicators denote reliance o
18、n imported oil products and natural gas. Greater self-sufficiency is accorded higher scores. Gas demand vs. gas supply, % (2009-2014) Country Rewards State ownership of assets, % Indicator used to denote opportunity for foreign NOCs/IOCs/Independents. Low state ownership scores higher. No. of non-st
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