BMI Brazil Infrastructure Report Q1 2012.pdf
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1、Q1 2012 infrastructure report issn 1752-5276 published by Business Monitor international Ltd. BraZiL INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2011 Business Monitor Inter
2、national. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic
3、, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed
4、to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omission
5、s affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. BRAZIL INFRASTRUCTURE REPORT Q1 2012 INCLUDES 5-YEAR INDUS
6、TRY FORECASTS BY BMI Part of BMIs Industry Report Developed Markets Offer Little Support 13 Latin America . 20 Industry Trend Analysis - Building Materials: Brazil To Drive Growth In 2011 And 2012, But Industry Headwinds Persist . 20 Industry Forecast 24 Table: Brazil Construction And Infrastructure
7、 Industry Data . 24 Table: Brazil Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data . 26 Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 28 Transport Infrastructure 31 Table: Brazil Transport Infrastructure Industry Data . 31 Table: brazil Transport Infrastructure Industry Data 33 Transport Infrastruc
8、ture Forecast Scenario . 35 Transport Infrastructure Overview . 37 Airports 37 Roads . 38 Ports 38 Rail 39 Major Projects Table Transport . 41 Table: Major Infrastructure Projects - Transport 41 Energy and Utilities Infrastructure . 48 Table: brazil Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
9、48 Table: Brazil Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data . 50 Table: Brazil Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data . 52 Table: Brazil Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data . 54 Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario . 56 Energy and Utilities Infrastruc
10、ture Overview . 57 Major Projects Table Energy and Utilities . 61 Table: Major Infrastructure Projects - Energy however, it is likely that more will be needed. Politicisation of infrastructure projects means the government is pushing through large projects regardless of feasibility (e.g. the Belo Mo
11、nte hydropower project and high- speed rail). Brazil Infrastructure Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9 Market Overview Brazil Brazil possesses well-developed agricultural, mining, manufacturing and service sectors. Infrastructure development has been driven by strong government
12、 investment, but more importantly by public-private partnerships (PPPs), with private investment accounting for an average of at least 95% of investment in infrastructure between 2003 and 2007, according to data compiled by BNamericas. However, the global economic downturn now threatens private part
13、icipation in the sector. The leading construction companies, including Camargo Correa, OHL Brasil, Andrade Gutierrez and Odebrecht, are well-entrenched in the country and are significant players on the international stage. PAC, Take 1 The federal governments growth acceleration plan, Programa de Ace
14、lerao do Crescimento (PAC), was unveiled in January 2007. The PAC envisaged BRL657bn (including a boost in February 2009) of investment into around 13,330 individual infrastructure projects between 2007 and 2010. In January 2010, it was announced that the government would allocate an extra BRL18.1bn
15、 (US$10.5bn) to the PAC. It was hoped that through the building programme, real GDP growth would be sustained at 5% a year. According to a report by Americas Programme, when the PAC was announced in 2007, just US$30bn of the funding was due to come from the federal budget. The remainder was expected
16、 to come from state budgets and private companies. Although data released at the end of 2009 by the Federal Government (cited by the Financial Times) indicated that the PAC was a long way behind schedule, significant progress appears to have been made over 2010. At the end of the year, it is estimat
17、ed that 94% of the budget for the PAC had been spent, equal to BRL619bn. Of this, BRL444bn of projects were expected to be completed by the end of 2010, equal to 82% of the budget. This is based on data from December 2010 (cited by BNamericas), which showed that as of October 31 73% of the budgeted
18、(BRL560bn) projects were underway. Reliant On The Private Sector Investments In Infrastructure In Brazil, % By Source (1997-2007) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Public Sector Private Sector Concessionaires Source: Brazil Transport Ministry, DNIT, ANTF,
19、 BNamericas Brazil Infrastructure Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 PAC, Take II In March 2010, then-Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, announced the second Programa de Acelerao do Crescimento (PAC II), a second growth acceleration programme to run between 2011 an
20、d 2014, and beyond. The PAC II includes BRL958.9bn (US$534bn) to be invested in infrastructure between 2011 and 2014, with a further BRL631.6bn (US$351.9bn) to be invested beyond 2014. In total, the programme envisages investment of BRL1,590.5bn (US$885.9bn) in infrastructure. The plan includes prov
21、isions for housing, transport and energy, as well as social welfare measures such as electrification and water provision. The largest portion of the plan is for energy, which is allotted BRL1,092.6bn (US$608.5bn) in total, with 43% of this to be targeted between 2011 and 2014. Highlights from the en
22、ergy sector include BRL136.6bn (US$76.1bn) for electricity generation, BRL37.4bn (US$20.8bn) for electricity transmission and BRL1bn (US$557mn) for renewables. Transport infrastructure accounts for around 7% of the total programme, with roads and railways getting the majority share. Plans for railwa
23、ys include three new high-speed railways. The PAC II is based on both private and public sector investment, with just 18.4% of the budget allocated for the private sector (equal to BRL176.2bn) and a massive 80.6% (BRL782.7bn) for the public sector. The public sector element includes investments made
24、 by state-owned companies, as well as both the federal and state governments. Funnelling Money Into Infrastructure PAC II, BRLbn Source: BMI Brazil Infrastructure Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 11 Sporting Events Driving Growth The construction industry is being boosted by pr
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