BMI Japan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012.pdf
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1、Q1 2012 oil but production from Latin America, the UK North Sea and Emerging Europe has also disappointed. Japan Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI In the UK, rising investment levels have not been able to stem a faster-than-expected decline in produ
2、ction, which fell below 1mn b/d in June 2011 for only the second time in 30 years. The effect has been magnified as the market has looked to the North Seas light sweet crude to replace lost light sweet volumes from Libya. In Azerbaijan, extended maintenance at BPs ACG oil field is likely to cause pr
3、oduction to disappoint by around 100,000b/d relative to expected volumes. Moreover, Azeri authorities have warned that production is likely to fall lower into 2012 and production has also been worse than expected in Latin America. Disappointing output volumes in Brazil and Venezuela have led us to l
4、ower our 2011 output target for the region by around 200,000b/d. Supply tightness is expected to ease going into 2012, but the market is not expected to produce a surplus until 2013. We forecast a supply deficit of around 860,000b/d, which will persist into 2012, with the market finally moving back
5、into surplus in 2013. Libya, however, remains a wildcard. Our forecast is based on the assumption that limited oil supplies of around 300,000b/d primarily from the Messla and Sarir fields in the southeast of the country will come back onstream before the end of 2011. The next stage of bringing produ
6、ction back onstream will likely see flows restart from the offshore Bouri field and the Eni-operated El Sharara field in the Murzuk Basin near the Algerian border. If those fields are successfully brought back onstream, we see potential output rising to as much as 1mn b/d by the end of 2012. More ch
7、allenging will be restarting production at Japan Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI Japan Oil Source: Historical, EIA; Forecast, BMI Oil And Gas Reserves There are no meaningful volumes of oil or gas reserves in Japan. The estimated 44mn bbl of proven
8、 oil reserves (OGJ December 2010) is expected to diminish to around 30mn by the end of the forecast period. Japans insignificant 20bcm of gas deposits are expected to be broadly stable thanks to minimal production. Oil Supply And Demand Japans crude oil imports hit 3.73mn b/d in August 2011, up 1.2%
9、 year-on-year (y-o-y), according to figures released by the Ministry of Finance. Japan Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI Japans oil demand in 2010 averaged an estimated 4.42mn b/d, down slightly on the previous year. Oil consumption has been undermin
10、ed by sluggish economic activity, fuel efficiency improvements and inter- fuel substitution in favour of gas and nuclear power. Our data indicates only slightly lower consumption in 2011, at around 4.41mn b/d, which is higher than earlier forecasts as a result of the earthquake and subsequent tsunam
11、i that struck Japan in March 2011. This has resulted in reduced nuclear generation and an upturn in oil- and gas-fired power generation to compensate. By 2016, the country is expected to be consuming 4.46mn b/d. Gas Supply And Demand Natural gas demand has been rising relatively quickly, with Japan
12、already the worlds biggest LNG importer, while Tokyo Gas, Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco), Toho Gas, Osaka Gas and Kyushu Electric Power are buying long-term gas from the Russian Sakhalin project. Many of Japans urban areas are not served by a natural gas distribution system. Japan Oil Source: Historic
13、al, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI The countrys nuclear sector, which accounted for 13% of primary energy demand in 2009, has been virtually shut down following the earthquake and subsequent tsunami that struck Japan on March 11 2011. The country will turn to other fuels
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