BMI South Africa Telecommunications Report Q4 2010.pdf
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1、Q4 2010 telecommunications RepoRt issn 1748-4820 published by Business monitor international ltd. soutH aFRica INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/
2、2010 Business Monitor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any f
3、orm or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and comp
4、iled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from error
5、s, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. SOUTH AFRICA TELECOMMUNICATIONS
6、 REPORT Q4 2010 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Part of BMIs Industry Report in previous months, this had been an important growth area for the operator. Meanwhile, our new broadband subscriber forecast envisages South Africa with around 1.12mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2009; this is equ
7、ivalent to a penetration rate of 4.3%. During 2009, the South African broadband subscriber base expanded by over 185%. Much of this growth was based on the rapid increase in the number of mobile broadband customers. By the end of the year, mobile broadband customers accounted for 70% of the total ma
8、rket. Our new broadband forecast for South Africa anticipates nearly 50% growth in 2010; this will enable the penetration rate to reach 6.4% by the end of the year. Although we made some minor changes to our 3G subscriber forecast for South Africa, our forecast for the mobile market on the whole rem
9、ains unchanged this quarter. The last set of operational figures from the countrys two largest mobile operators, Vodacom and MTN, relates to the end of March 2010. By the time of our next update, new data should be available for the first half of 2010. In the meantime, we maintain our belief that th
10、e sector will see only limited growth of 1.7% in 2010. This trend will partly be a reflection of moves by the operators to deduct inactive prepaid customers from their reported totals. Recent developments of note within the mobile market include the news that South Africas smallest mobile operator C
11、ell C is preparing to sell its 50% stake in Virgin Mobile South Africa, the countrys only MVNO. According to media reports in July, the deal was all but done. Virgin South Africa began life in 2006, as an equal joint venture between Cell C and Richard Bransons Virgin Group. It is understood that Vir
12、gin Mobile will continue to use Cell Cs network even if a sale goes ahead, and hopes to utilise the 3G/HSPA network which Cell C is currently rolling out. South Africa Telecoms Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 SWOT Analysis South Africa Wireline SWOT Strengths ! Competition e
13、xists in the fixed voice services market, with several companies providing call-by- call carrier selection and VoIP services. ! According to the Electronic Communications Act of 2006, any communications service provider may apply for a licence to construct a national communications infrastructure. !
14、 Second national operator Neotel provides voice and data services to both residential and business customers; continues to extend its network across South Africa. ! Broadband subscriber growth continues at a strong pace; according to Telkoms latest figures, the number of ADSL customers grew by 18.1%
15、 y-o-y in the twelve months to March 2010. ! Four companies are licensed to provide broadband WiMAX services. Weaknesses ! Fixed-line connections and revenues are in decline. ! The sector has yet to benefit from the introduction of local loop unbundling. ! Telkoms ADSL network has been heavily criti
16、cised for being expensive and slow. The operator has been addressing this issue, which led to a recent reduction in tariffs, but they are still seen as too high by consumers. ! Despite the continued deployment of Neotels network, Telkom remains the dominant fixed-line operator; Telkom also retains a
17、 dominant position in the ADSL market. Opportunities ! Several companies are accelerating their investment in WiMAX development, which will raise the level of competition in the broadband market. ! Deployment of Telkoms NGN, and the construction of a national fibre backbone by Neotel, MTN and Vodaco
18、m, will help to support the development of new services such as internet TV and video calling. ! Following the launch of SEACOM in 2009, several additional undersea cable systems are set to be inaugurated in the months ahead; this development will help to further lower international bandwidth costs
19、for South African operators. ! An increasing number of service providers are entering the market for corporate data solutions and managed data services, pointing to a segment with considerable growth potential. ! The government has outlined plans to implement local loop unbundling by 2011. ! The int
20、roduction of fixed number portability between Telkom and Neotel will make it easier for customers to change their service provider. Threats ! Danger that slower economic growth in South Africa will have a negative long-term impact on the uptake of broadband and data services by businesses and consum
21、ers; it is notable ADSL subscriber growth experienced a noticeable slowdown in 2009. ! Uncertainty exists as to whether the new government will maintain market-friendly policies; this could have an impact on future investments in the sector. ! Telkom is investing in a range of new services including
22、 WiMAX, fixed wireless telephony, VoIP and fibre optics; such investments could make it harder for market competition to develop. ! Danger that WiMAX investments could be wasted if HSPA technology becomes increasingly popular. South Africa Telecoms Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd P
23、age 7 South Africa Mobile SWOT Strengths ! 3G services offered by two leading network operators, Vodacom and MTN. ! Despite having fallen in the first half of 2009, ARPU levels saw promising growth in the second half of the year. ! Greater liberalisation encouraged through invitation of MVNOs. ! Lea
24、ding operators Vodacom and MTN have a strong international presence. ! Sector has benefited from strategic investments from Vodafone (in the case of Vodacom) and Saudi Arabias Saudi Oger (in the case of Cell C). Weaknesses ! Despite strong contract customer growth, the mobile market remains highly s
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