BMI Malaysia Power Report.pdf
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1、Q3 2010 power report ISSN 1754-4041 published by Business Monitor International Ltd. MALAYSIA INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2010 Business Mon
2、itor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any mea
3、ns graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources
4、 believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies o
5、r omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. MALAYSIA POWER REPORT Q3 2010 INCLUDES 5- AND 10
6、-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 AND 2019 Part of BMIs Industry Report BMI In the 71 countries covered by BMIs energy service, primary energy demand (PED) is set to increase from an estimated 10,542mn toe in 2009 to 12,618mn toe by 2014. The 2008 estimate of global PED published in the BP Statistical Review
7、of World Energy (June 2009) was 11,295mn toe, which reflects its broader coverage than the BMI universe. According to BPs report, oil accounted for 34.8% of 2008 energy demand, followed by coal with 29.3% and gas with 24.1%; nuclear energys share was just 5.5%, behind hydro-electric power with 6.4%.
8、 BMIs forecasts suggest that, in spite of rapid demand growth, gas will still account for just 24.3% of PED in 2014, with much of the increased market share reflecting power generation usage. In spite of environmental pressure, we see coals share of overall demand edging Malaysia Power Report Q3 201
9、0 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9 higher to 31.8% by the end of the forecast period. Our estimates point to a 5.3% market share for nuclear power by 2014, with hydro-electricity remaining marginally ahead with an estimated 6.0% share of the energy market. BMIs forecasts for electricity gen
10、eration suggest an increase from an estimated 18,746TWh in 2009 to 22,740TWh in 2014 (+21.3%), based on a universe of 71 countries. According to the BP Statistical Review (June 2009), world electricity generation in 2008 was 20,202TWh. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is a division
11、 of the US Department of Energy, predicts a 29.2% rise in power generation from 17,982TWh in 2006 to 23,228TWh by 2015. Thermal power generation will continue to dominate, although gas will gain market share at the expense of oil, while coal will hold its ground. Our projections for thermal power ge
12、neration suggest a generation market share of 69.1% in 2014, down slightly from the estimated 2009 level of 70.8%. The EIAs long- term energy outlook predicts a 65.8% market share for thermal power generation in 2015, with coal having 40.8%, gas holding a 21.0% market share and oil claiming just 4.0
13、% of overall generation. According, to the EIA, nuclear power will account for 13.1% of electricity generation by 2015, with its market share falling steadily during the period. BMIs own data suggest a market share of around 13.1% for nuclear in 2014, in spite of signs that this form of power genera
14、tion is gaining fresh support as countries struggle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The EIA includes hydro-electric power in the renewables segment, where generating market share is predicted to reach 21.1% by 2015. BMIs data point to a hydro-power market share of 15.1% by 2014, implying that th
15、e contribution made by alternative sources such as wind will remain very modest during the forecast period. Asia Pacific Region The dominant regional electricity generator and consumer in the Asia Pacific region is China, which has a high dependence on imports to fuel its power stations. India and S
16、outh Korea are also significant regional players, with both also increasingly reliant on imported fuels to meet their power needs. In 2008, data from BP (June 2009) show regional electricity generation of 7,250TWh, of which China, Japan, India and South Korea accounted for 81%. BMIs estimates for 20
17、09 suggest regional generation of 7,308TWh. Malaysias market share in 2009 was an estimated 1.44%. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,725TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 26.2% during 2010-2014. By the end of the forecast period, we expect Malaysia to account for 1.38% of r
18、egional power generation. The EIA predicts that installed generating capacity for the OECD Pacific region will increase from 374GW in 2006 to 386GW by 2010, and then 410GW by 2015. Net electricity generation for the region is forecast to rise from 1,691TWh in 2008 to 1,782TWh by 2010, then to 1,928T
19、Wh by 2015. For non- OECD Asia, capacity is to increase from 871GW in 2008 to 1,209GW by 2010, and then to 1,407GW by Malaysia Power Report Q3 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 2015. Power generation is tipped to rise from 4,391TWh to 5,586TWH by 2010, increasing further to 7,295TWh by
20、 2015. Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) Country 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Australia 260.6 272.3 274.0 276.7 279.5 285.1 290.8 295.2 Cambodia 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.3 4.0 China 3,281.6 3,433.4 3,639.4 3,912.4 4,233.2 4,571.8 4,937.6 5,332.6 Hong Kong 38.9 3
21、8.0 37.5 38.0 39.2 40.3 41.7 43.2 India 808.8 834.3 876.0 924.2 987.0 1,046.3 1,112.2 1,178.9 Indonesia 142.4 151.2 157.4 166.1 176.0 183.9 191.3 200.9 Japan 1,160.0 1,154.3 1,095.0 1,100.5 1,117.0 1,130.4 1,141.7 1,164.5 Malaysia 105.0 106.4 105.0 110.3 116.9 122.1 127.6 134.0 Pakistan 98.8 95.1 96
22、.0 98.9 101.8 104.4 107.5 110.8 Philippines 59.6 59.6 60.0 62.7 66.8 70.1 73.6 76.9 Singapore 41.1 41.7 41.0 44.0 45.8 47.6 49.5 51.0 South Korea 440.0 462.9 450.0 470.0 480.0 493.4 510.7 524.0 Sri Lanka 9.9 10.7 11.1 11.9 12.8 13.9 15.0 16.2 Taiwan 242.7 237.7 235.0 245.0 256.0 265.0 275.6 285.2 Th
23、ailand 144.6 147.5 143.0 148.0 152.4 158.5 164.1 169.0 Vietnam 69.5 79.2 85.6 94.1 104.5 116.0 127.6 139.1 BMI universe 6,904.9 7,125.9 7,307.8 7,704.7 8,171.3 8,651.5 9,169.8 9,725.4 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Historical data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2009; BMI; Forecas
24、ts: BMI Malaysia Power Report Q3 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 11 Thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,849TWh, accounting for 80.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,600TWh, implying a 23.7% growth that reduces the market s
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