BMI Malaysia Retail Report.pdf
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1、Q4 2010 retail report iSSN 2040-9125 published by Business Monitor international ltd. MalaYSia INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2010 Business Mo
2、nitor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any me
3、ans graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from source
4、s believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies
5、or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. MALAYSIA RETAIL REPORT Q4 2010 INCLUDING 5-YEAR
6、 INDUSTRY FORECASTS BY BMI Part of BMIs Industry Report and relatively poorly in the areas of economic volatility, institutions, market orientation and labour infrastructure. Malaysia Retail Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 13 Market Overview The retail landscape in Malaysia ha
7、s been transformed over the past decade, with modern retail formats such as hypermarkets, supermarkets and department stores increasing in dominance over traditional mom and pop outlets. Although Malaysia is increasingly one of emerging Asias more established mass grocery retail (MGR) markets, BMI c
8、ontinues to predict a bright medium-term future for the sector, with industry sales forecast to increase by 50% to reach MYR20.7bn (US$7.02bn) in 2014. Having been a key beneficiary of sector growth to date, UK retail major Tesco continues to favour the market, unveiling plans to invest MYR500mn (US
9、$156.7mn) in five new outlets in 2010. On announcing its plans, Tesco appeared to adopt a cautious tone, highlighting the lengthy retail planning process in Malaysia. Nonetheless, while BMI also recognises these risks, we believe the retailers prospects in the country are bright. In the wider retail
10、 market, the opening of large shopping malls has increased the lifestyle element of shopping in Malaysia, with retail concepts carefully chosen to appeal to specific consumer groups. The country has a very young customer base the median age is 24.6 according to the CIA World Factbook and the demand
11、for lifestyle products is high. Kuala Lumpur alone has 66 shopping malls and Selangor has 58. The total retail space in these two territories is estimated at 3.37mn square metres. Globalisation has also brought foreign players, franchises and new concepts into the market, with international names in
12、cluding IKEA and Marks Metrojaya, with 10 Metrojaya stores, MJ concept stores and MJ fashion stores nationwide; and Hyper-E Mall Electronic (Actop International), which operates the largest electrical superstore in Malaysia, at Cheras. For many Singaporean retailers, neighbouring Malaysia is often t
13、heir first stop when they expand beyond their domestic market, with Singaporean department store operators CK Tang and Robinsons both having outlets in Kuala Lumpur. Global operators include Watsons Personal Care Stores (Malaysia), which acquired Malaysias Apex Pharmacy chain in 2005 and now operate
14、s 216 stores throughout the country; AEON of Japan, which operates the Jaya Jusco outlets; IKEA of Sweden; and Marks and, in view of still-weak global trade flows and an impending reduction in fiscal expenditures, we have revised our 2010 real GDP growth forecast downwards slightly to 4.1% (from 4.3
15、%). The Malaysian economy performed better than expected in Q409, increasing by 4.5% y-o-y compared with the -1.2% y-o-y registered in the previous quarter. The latest improvement in the fourth quarter helped shrink the annual real GDP decline to 1.7%, bettering our -2.1% estimate. Latest data sugge
16、st that a V-shaped recovery is at hand, as private consumption and investments have rebounded strongly from the previous quarters, supporting growth. That said, we emphasise that the external sector expansion is expected to remain lacklustre due to still- weak global trade flows. Moreover, we expect
17、 the governments drive to slash official spending in order to reduce the fiscal deficit to lead to a slowing in government consumption growth in 2010 and 2011. As such, BMI is forecasting that the Malaysian economy will expand by 4.1% (down slightly from our forecast of 4.3% previously), before acce
18、lerating to 4.7% in 2011 as the recovery gathers pace. Private Consumption Key To Growth As expected, private consumption which made up 52.7% of the economy in Q409 continued to play an important role in buffering the decline in the broader economy, and we expect this trend to persist into 2010 and
19、2011. Private consumption rose 1.7% y-o-y in the fourth quarter of 2009, accelerating from the 1.5% figure registered in the preceding quarter. Malaysia Retail Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 20 A closer look at the GDP by sector numbers reveal that the services sector which m
20、ade up 57.4% of the economy grew 5.1% y-o-y, which was considerably faster than Q309s 3.5% expansion. We attribute such growth to the recovery in consumer-driven industries particularly the wholesale and retail trade, which comprise about one-fourth of the services sector where local buyers played a
21、 significant role in propping up the economy while exporters languished due to the steep drop in global demand following the onset of the global financial crisis. Given the local economys size and sustained growth, we expect such domestic consumption to play an increasing role in the coming years, s
22、erving as a shock absorber in the event of a global double-dip downturn. As such, we are pencilling in 5.8% growth in private consumption in 2010, followed by a stronger 7.8% in 2011 as consumer confidence returns. Such growth figures imply that the expenditure component will form the largest contri
23、butor to headline growth, boosting the real GDP growth figure by 3.1pp and 4.3pp in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Capital Formation To Resume Expansion Gross fixed capital formation grew by 8.2% y-o-y in Q409, after sustaining four consecutive quarters of declines. The encouraging rebound in private i
24、nvestments added 1.6pp to headline growth, which was in stark contrast to the 1.8pp subtraction in Q309. Going forward, we believe capital formation will continue its pace of recovery in 2010, reclaiming the losses registered in 2009 as investors regain confidence in Asian developing economies such
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