BMI Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012.pdf
《BMI Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《BMI Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012.pdf(57页珍藏版)》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、2012 petrochemicals report issN 1749-2130 published by Business monitor international ltd. aUstralia INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2010 Business Monitor Inter
2、national. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic
3、, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed
4、to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omission
5、s affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. AUSTRALIA PETROCHEMICALS REPORT 2012 INCLUDING 5-YEAR INDU
6、STRY FORECASTS BY BMI Part of BMIs Industry Report Yara is a minority shareholding the Burrup Holdings. However, this is likely to be delayed pending the outcome of the stake owned by Burrup Holdings majority shareholders, the businessman Pankaj Oswal and his wife who object to the joint venture. Et
7、hylene capacity is to remain at 515,000tpa, while PE and PP capacities are likely to remain static at 410,000tpa and 355,000tpa respectively. However, 2010 saw the end of polystyrene production in Australia following Huntsmans decision in September 2009 to close its facilities, which included 30,000
8、tpa of PS capacity. The Australian petrochemicals industry is influenced by developments in China, Australias main export market for petrochemicals and petrochemicals-utilising products. BMI forecasts a slowdown in Chinese demand growth going into 2012 as a result of more sluggish demand in the auto
9、motive, consumer goods and construction industries in China and the domestic market. BMI now sees evidence of a bubble in the Chinese property market. If tightening of the credit market continues and the pace of construction abates, the slowdown will lead to zero growth in the PVC segment and slow g
10、rowth in PE and PP. However, if the bubble bursts and China falls into recession, the consequences for the Australian petrochemicals industry will be more devastating than the 2009 contraction. Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 Carbon emissions pose a dow
11、nside risk. Chemical and plastics manufacturers are set to receive 66% of their emissions permits for free during the initial stages of the scheme, with liquefied gas producers to receive 50%. However, the carbon tax has attracted opposition from petrochemicals producers and downstream processors. B
12、MI believes that carbon taxes are unlikely to be a significant threat to Australian petrochemicals production as the costs will be manageable. The costs will vary across the sector according to the amount of carbon emitted, the compensation offered and the ability to pass on costs to consumers. Prod
13、ucers of advanced, speciality products will be the least affected, while basic chemicals will suffer increased costs. Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 SWOT Analysis Australian Petrochemicals Industry SWOT Strengths ? Hydrocarbon resources and proximity t
14、o Asian markets, particularly China Weaknesses ? Growing trade deficit ? Sub-par plant size and a dated asset base ? Ample feedstock supplies, but located in remote, far-flung areas Opportunities ? Automation of the Netherlands-based Basells plants leading to increase in productivity ? Expansion of
15、the petrochemicals industry in western Australia ? Consolidation in the industry expected to result in higher productivity and profitability Threats ? Trade deficit widening further ? Industry failing to meet domestic demand and losing out on export potential Australia Political SWOT Strengths ? Aus
16、tralia is a mature democracy with a broadly stable party system. ? Economic stability over recent years supports the current political system and radical groups are unlikely to gain substantial support. Weaknesses ? As one of the regions largest and most stable states, the country attracts many refu
17、gees and economic migrants. The issue is a key source of domestic tension and one that is unlikely to disappear over the medium term. Opportunities ? Australia has historically enjoyed close military ties with the US. However, with the rise of regional economic powers like China, it will need to bal
18、ance competing military and economic ties. Threats ? Australias early support for the US War on Terror, among other things, has made Australians abroad a target for Islamic extremists. ? Australias close alliance with the US, particularly under John Howard, has left a lingering feeling among some As
19、ian governments that Canberra is Washingtons deputy sheriff in the region. Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 Australia Economic SWOT Strengths ? A free-market economy supported by a highly educated workforce. ? Blessed with rich natural resources, Austral
20、ias economic activity will be augmented by commodity exports, especially to China. Weaknesses ? The persistent current account deficit increases vulnerability to capital flows and, by extension, currency volatility. ? The export basket is highly concentrated in commodities, with the consequence that
21、 the economy and currency remain vulnerable to fluctuations in world prices for metals, coal and agricultural goods. Opportunities ? The rapid expansion of Asian economies in recent years - notwithstanding the current global recession - offers new opportunities for diversifying trading ties from cor
22、e European markets. ? A low level of government debt has provided a certain amount of flexibility in fiscal policy to support domestic demand through the downturn. Threats ? The high level of private sector debt - especially mortgage loans - poses a threat to sustained growth. ? A collapse in export
23、s from a drop in resource demand from China would severely impact headline GDP growth. ? Australia is vulnerable to extreme weather that may lead to droughts and floods, which have become increasingly severe in past years as a result of global climate change. Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Bus
24、iness Monitor International Ltd Page 9 Australia Business Environment Swot Strengths ? A highly educated workforce and comparatively modern transport infrastructure underpin economic prospects. ? A number of free trade agreements with countries such as New Zealand, Thailand and the US boost trading
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- BMI Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012
链接地址:https://www.31doc.com/p-3731171.html