BMI Thailand Food and Drink Report Q4 2010.pdf
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1、Q4 2010 food employment and consumer confidence remain too weak and this has only been further exposed as the tailwinds of consumer-oriented government stimulus packages have died out. The extent of the challenge facing F even as grains prices remain subdued, softs will remain volatile Premiumisati
2、on will remain on hold Private labels and off-trade alcohol drinks will outperform their respective sectors Discount grocery retailers will continue to gain market share Government fiscal policy austerity will be unsupportive of industry growth Government monetary policy the reduced likelihood of fu
3、rther rate hikes will help limit demand destruction Having scaled back capex in 2009, investment will return as producers look to secure future growth Consolidation will continue as producers seek greater efficiencies We continue to favour private consumption-led economies, over export-oriented stat
4、es for consumer goods investment Long-term Outlook Companies with strong emerging market exposure will continue to outperform Tension between producers and retailers will remain Investment in innovation will increase as producers seek differentiation; emphasis will be placed on protecting innovation
5、s Brand builders will continue to leave sectors under threat from private labels Emerging market multinationals will increasingly pursue frontier market investments Government legislation will play an increasing role in marginalising unhealthy food and beverage products; notably alcohol Demand for c
6、onvenience in retail and food will continue to grow Functional foods will be the highest growth sector in developed markets Beverage companies will continue to invest in diversification away from carbonated beverages and into healthier sub- sectors Source: BMI Thailand Food the market consists of bo
7、th middle- and upper-income consumers who are becoming increasingly attracted by the premium, health-conscious and added-value noodle offerings available. These products and their ability to harness dual consumer interests, such as health consciousness and convenience explain BMIs stronger value sal
8、es growth forecast for the market. Table: Instant Noodle Value/Volume Sales Historical Data the brewer has announced a fall in domestic beer sales citing the economic downturn as the reason consumers are keen to restrict their spending. On the plus side, the presence of strong local and multinationa
9、l players in the beer sector will ensure that business activity levels remain high, within the confines of government legislation and consequently, the alcoholic drinks industry will remain a strong growth industry over the forecast period. The immature wine sector is set to see the strongest growth
10、, with a forecast of 59.0% growth in volume terms to 2014, Thailand Food retailers have continued to invest, albeit in less expansionary activities. However, the level of investment committed to Thailand is likely to be reduced somewhat in the long term, both due to government interference and to th
11、e fact that the countrys wealthiest towns and cities are now starting to become crowded. Beyond our current forecast period the Thai MGR sector could find itself more stagnant and less competitive as a result. Thailand Food a significant sum for a combined 58-outlet-strong network. However, BMI woul
12、d expect interest in any sale to be high, with emerging markets (EM) remaining at the cornerstone of most expansionary multinational retailers growth strategies and consequently it is a price tag that could be met. ! In July 2010, the Bangkok Post reported that Tesco Lotus was to expand its green pr
13、oducts to stimulate increased demand in the long term. The retailer currently has 150 green products, up from 118 in 2009 and aims for this to exceed 500 products in the next few years. The company received a good response from Thai customers after launching its first green point campaign in March 2
14、010 to encourage environmentally concerned customers to purchase its green products. ! Looking to exploit the recovery of consumer demand in 2010, convenience retailer Siam FamilyMart announced in April 2010 that it is to accelerate its pace of expansion. Siam FamilyMart, a subsidiary of Japanese ma
15、jor FamilyMart, is particularly well-positioned to exploit the strong growth we are forecasting in the convenience sector on the back of strong forecast private consumption growth. The retailer stands to benefit enormously from its parents need to diversify away from the mature Japanese market. In t
16、otal, 440 new stores will be opened in Thailand over the next five years with the local subsidiary confirming 72 planned openings in 2010. Competing as it does with runaway market leader 7-Eleven, FamilyMart needs more than just new stores to improve its competitive positioning. Again, BMI sees an o
17、pportunity for FamilyMart to leverage off its parent here. Familiar with intense market competition, Japanese Thailand Food by 2018, we expect independent retail to account for just 12% of total grocery sales. Siam Makro has sought to offset this, launching the Makro Retailers Alliance in 2007, whic
18、h provides independents with assistance in areas such as product displays and maximising floorspace. Its latest mobile outlet initiative can be viewed as an extension of this. If independents cannot realistically compete with the low prices and modern stores offered by the likes of CP All and Tesco,
19、 they must try to Thailand Food the company plans to add another four products in 2010. In FY10 the company expects sales of CQL products to reach THB200mn. ! In January 2010, Tesco Lotus opened its latest Plus Shopping Mall in the Amata Nakhon Industrial Estate in Chon Buri. The mall is expected to
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