BMI China Telecommunications Report Q3 2011.pdf
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1、Q3 2011 telecommunications RepoRt issn 1748-4472 published by Business monitor international ltd. cHina INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2011 Business Mon
2、itor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any mea
3、ns graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources
4、 believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies o
5、r omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. CHINA TELECOMMUNICATIONS REPORT Q3 2011 INCLUDES
6、 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2015 Part of BMIs Industry Survey Googles threats to quit China after accusing the government of hacking may set a precedent over the future actions of other foreign firms. Opportunities ? Appeal among younger segments of the population regarding online content, particularly in
7、relation to multimedia services such as gaming, video and music. ? Accessibility to the internet through universities, internet cafs and schools has meant that demand for online content continues to thrive. ? Growth of broadband sector likely to lead to expansion contracts for manufacturers such as
8、Alcatel Shanghai Bell and Huawei. ? Growing number of regional cable operators supplied with broadband licences leading to lower tariffs. ? First WiMAX services and demand for mobile broadband services are rising rapidly, which will aid growth of the broadband sector. Threats ? The greater sophistic
9、ation and ownership of mobile services represents a threat to broadband, with the possibility of mobile broadband services becoming more widely accepted rather than fixed broadband. ? High international gateway and backbone network fees charged to cable operators by fixed-line operators could stifle
10、 growth in the broadband market. ? Fixed-line and broadband sectors remain dominated by China Telecom, offering few options for customers. China Telecommunications Report Q3 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9 China Mobile Market SWOT Strengths ? The size of the mobile market; China Mobil
11、e is the worlds largest operator in terms of subscriber numbers. ? China has launched its own domestic 3G mobile technology standard TD-SCDMA, which will challenge CDMA2000 and W-CDMA. ? Strength of domestic manufacturers Huawei Technologies and ZTE grows and both firms are likely to continue winnin
12、g TD-SCDMA equipment contracts. ? 3G equipment spending on the back of licence awards will fuel the telecoms capex spend during 2011 for China and the wider Asia Pacific region. ? Government determination to invest in Chinas telecommunications industry ensuring that it becomes innovative. ? Demand f
13、or mobile broadband will aid growth of 3G subscribers. Weaknesses ? Many rural areas have neither fixed-line nor mobile telephony services available. ? Many local handset manufacturers (Soutec, Eastcom and Kejian) are beginning to suffer as Nokia, Motorola and Samsung have all picked up in handset s
14、ales due to better distribution. ? Handset sales in general are being impacted as customers refrain from upgrading. ? Economic downturn in the export-reliant China has meant that migrant workers have relinquished their services as they leave for their hometowns; local, regional-based operators have
15、reported a drop in mobile revenues. ? Falling ARPUs due to the continue dominance of the prepaid market, and subscriber growth arising from rural areas. Opportunities ? 3G licences awarded in 2009. Several infrastructure providers are investing heavily in 3G research and development (R largely led b
16、y China Mobile, which has been aggressive in expanding its network to rural areas; has meant a smaller postpaid base. BMI estimates there were a total of 202.1mn subscribers on postpaid services, which accounted for 24% of the total. During the year, we believe the total number of postpaid subscribe
17、rs had risen by 11.3%, while over the quarter it was up by 0.4%. This was down from the 3% increase estimated in the previous quarter, but an improvement from the 9.4% q-o-q fall in Q210. During the first quarter of 2010, the number of postpaid subscriber is believed to have risen by 16.9%. As we ha
18、ve mentioned earlier, postpaid remains a minority, with operators investing heavily into 3G and VAS services. However, although growth in the 3G market is on the rise, it still remains insufficient to offset the steady growth rate of the 2G market, which continues to improve in terms of applications
19、 offered and quality of services. ARPU a figure that was not achieved. Besides aiming to deploy a variety of 3G handsets to attract subscribers to sign up to its services, the operator is also at a disadvantage because TD-SCDMA remains under-developed compared to the other two standards. Further, th
20、e popular iPhone handset by Apple remains under an exclusive contract with China Unicom, which has been behind that operators success. China Mobile customers can only buy unlocked iPhone handsets, but these only work on China Mobiles older, international 2G network as they are not compatible with it
21、s 3G home-grown standard. As a result, the operator said it wants to use Wi-Fi as an interim solution until it launches a fourth-generation network. China Mobile announced in April 2010, that the firm will conduct trials of its TD-LTE networks in three cities H210, reports Digitimes. The operator in
22、tends to conduct the trials by deploying 100 TD-LTE base stations in each of the cities. China Mobile is also promoting TD-LTE technology to overseas markets as it sees huge prospects for the adoption of TD-LTE as a 4G standard by non-China-based operators. In July 2010, China Mobile and Ericsson wi
23、ll conduct large-scale field trials for TD-LTE technology in Q410. Following this, the operator announced it had received approval from the regulator in December 2010 to conduct a network trial in six cities including Shanghai and Shenzhen. However, China Mobile is not likely to receive a 4G licence
24、 within two years as the government wants operators to recoup the cost of their 3G investments. China Unicom About CNY1.5bn was invested in China Unicoms third phase of its W-CDMA network deployment. This phase covered 50 cities in seven provinces, and by end-2010, the operators 3G network comprised
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