BMI South Korea Autos Report Q4 2010.pdf
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1、AUTOS RepORT Q4 2010 ISSN 1749-0189 published by Business Monitor International Ltd. SOUTH KOReA INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2010 Business
2、Monitor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any
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4、ces believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracie
5、s or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. SOUTH KOREA AUTOS REPORT Q4 2010 INCLUDING 5-
6、YEAR INDUSTRY FORECASTS BY BMI Part of BMIs Industry Survey Sources: Toyota Thailand, Gaikindo, MAA, CAMPI, VAMA South Korea Autos Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 11 development of the domestic industry. The units arrival is timely, given that Malaysia is on course to achieve
7、record sales by the end of the year. Sales for the five months to May, the latest available, were up 20%, at 247,072 units, which is well on the way to surpassing the 552,316 units recorded in 2005. The downside risk, however, is rate hikes, although this will be the case for much of the region duri
8、ng the rate normalisation cycle. Vietnam has been one of the least impressive markets in the region, registering H1 vehicle sales growth of 5% for the 16 carmakers producing in the country. Sales for June rose by just 4%, to 10,052 units, taking the six-month total to 50,278 units. Imports, which th
9、e government is trying to restrict to reduce the countrys trade deficit, were still 27.6% higher y-o-y, with a value of US$1.29bn. Although H1 growth is low relative to Vietnams neighbours, it is an improvement on the 2% decline for Q110 and BMI does expect positive annual growth in 2010 as pent-up
10、demand is fulfilled. South Korea Autos Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 12 Business Environment Ratings The aim of BMIs Business Environment Rating system for the automotive industry is to show the rewards and the risks that carmakers operating in a particular region in this ca
11、se Asia Pacific may face. The unique system assesses crucial factors, such as sales and output growth, international trade, market size and location, and the level of market competition, in addition to taking into account a countrys economic and political backdrop. The ratings system allows analysts
12、 to fully expound the potential advantages and disadvantages of investing in Asian car markets, and offers an overall comparison of the key markets in the region. The rankings have changed slightly against the backdrop of the global economic slowdown, as some markets have proven better equipped to c
13、ope than others. Australia now leads the regional rankings, with a much higher score of 70.1 out of a possible 100, compared with 65.3 in the last ratings. The developed nature of the country means that Australia is at a disadvantage due the near-saturation status of its autos market, which reduces
14、growth potential. On the other hand, a high GDP increases purchasing power, while market risks are reduced by low levels of corruption and a strong legal framework. This is reflected in the markets high score for its low risk. Its Country Rewards score has also risen from 66.7 to 87.2. China has now
15、 fallen to second, although its overall score has risen from 66.5 to 67.7. The markets highest scores are still for its production and sales growth potential, based on BMIs forecasts up to 2013, although signs of a slowdown in the market have been evident. However, even though a low level of vehicle
16、 ownership can look tempting in terms of possible growth, the low score for country structure (caused by the large gap that exists between wealthy towns and poorer rural areas) acts as a clear restriction on potential penetration. In terms of Chinas macroeconomic environment, a healthy long-term pol
17、itical and economic outlook ensures strong scores for Country Risk. A country held back by an auto market on the brink of saturation is South Korea, which has stayed in third with 66.8 out of 100, up from 64.2. Historically poor labour relations weigh on the countrys overall rating, although long-te
18、rm political and economic stability reduce the risks. The score for Rewards has risen this year, as the markets country score rating has gone from 52.2 to 65.8. Free trade agreements add to South Koreas sound regulatory environment, although there is room for improvement if a deal with the US can be
19、 ratified. Japan stays in fourth with an overall rating of 61.1, up from 60.6 in the previous ratings. The risks associated with a developed market still exist, however. Just as Australia and South Korea suffer disadvantages due to their developed statuses, a saturated market also weighs on Japans r
20、atings. While the country scores well in terms of its Country Risk, with low levels of corruption and a sound legal framework that have bumped up the markets overall score, the auto industry is nearing full capacity, and South Korea Autos Report Q4 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 13 thi
21、s consequently reduces production growth potential, while the high level of vehicle ownership restricts possible sales growth. Labour costs are also high, which adds to the cost of expanding production. Moving up to fifth is Thailand, which has benefited from an improved country risk score, taking i
22、ts overall rating to 57.4. A number of new export-oriented investment projects have raised the countrys production growth potential for the next five years, despite the current downturn, while several existing free trade agreements increase the reach of investors. Government incentives for manufactu
23、rers producing low-emission vehicles have boosted Thailands regulatory environment score, along with good labour relations and trade relationships. India is now down to sixth with a slightly lower score of 55.4, as a reduction in its Country Rewards rating drags on the Rewards category. India shares
24、 the same pros and cons as China, ranking highly in terms of high production and sales growth potential, but with a low score for country structure (again caused by a large gap between wealthy urban and poorer rural areas), which acts as a restriction on future penetration rates. However, the countr
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