ACRP-Problem-No-12-01-11.pdf
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1、ACRP Problem No. 12-01-11 A Guidebook for Risk Assessment for Capital and Maintenance Projects in Airports ACRP Staff Comments: The proposed research should complement and reference ACRP Project 01-18, Enterprise Risk Management for Airports and ACRP Report 21: A Guidebook for Selecting Airport Capi
2、tal Project Delivery Methods. There are information and methods used extensively in highway projects to manage project costs and risk of cost escalation. These tools could be modified for airports. TRB Aviation Group Committees Comments: AVIATION ECONOMICS AND FORECASTING CMTE - It is assumed that t
3、he problem statement is an extension of ACRP Project 01-18, Application of Enterprise Risk Management at Airports. Risk assessment is a growing field and approach to handling capital and other long lived projects, so a framework for airport managers would be valuable, especially if it were provided
4、in combination with new software tools. Supported with software. Review Panel Comments: Recommended This research focuses on project capital risk, and could help airports save resources by reducing risk during the design and bidding processes by applying best practices. Knowing the impact on the air
5、port rate base would be helpful. It would be good to have an understanding of what questions need to be asked in advance. Need to understand the audience better; consider adding airports and airlines of all sizes. Additional funding needed to develop software. This could be a two-phased project with
6、 additional funding. AOC Disposition: Approved and funded at $300,000. There is a need for a guidebook on establishing ranges and thinking coherently about risk. The research product may be useful for medium and small airports. The product needs to be user-friendly. OUTLINE FOR AIRPORT COOPERATIVE R
7、ESEARCH PROGRAM PROBLEM STATEMENTS A AC CR RP P Problem NumberProblem Number: 12-01-11 I. PROBLEM TITLE A guidebook for risk assessment for capital and maintenance projects in airports II. RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT Cost overrun and schedule delay have plagued infrastructure projects for the past de
8、cades. As projects get more complex in terms of technical issues, length of development period and number of third-party stakeholders, estimating the cost and duration of projects become more difficult. In the past three decades various efforts have been undertaken to help the owners maintain better
9、 control over cost and schedule of their projects. One approach that has gained attention in the past eight years is a formal risk assessment process conducted at the beginning of major transportation projects. This process will explicitly consider cost and schedule uncertainties for modeling projec
10、t cost and duration. Using these probabilistic models, cost and schedule contingency can be calculated. Further, by conducting a thorough risk assessment, major project risks are identified and mitigation strategies can be considered to prepare the management team for effective project management. S
11、ide benefits of a risk assessment approach include better communication among project development team members including owner, designer and in some cases design-builder. Furthermore, the results of risk assessment in early stages of complex projects will allow the owner or project champions to educ
12、ate the public and other stakeholders on the possible range of project cost and duration. Experience with large highway projects has shown that when the public is aware of potential causes of cost increase or project delay, they are more receptive to accepting the consequences. III. OBJECTIVE The pr
13、oposed risk assessment guidebook will describe in clear, easy to follow language, the process of conducting an effective risk assessment for the capital or maintenance airport project under consideration. The guidebook will clearly describe the process of validating the project cost and schedule est
14、imates, identification of cost and schedule risks, quantification of risks, and development of budget contingency and a risk mitigation plan for coping with the identified risk factors. IV. RESEARCH PROPOSED Use of risk analysis techniques is becoming more common in planning for capital transportati
15、on projects. Both highway and transit have started using these techniques to quantify and mitigate risks affecting project cost and schedule. Airport projects are natural candidates for the application of formal risk assessments because many of these projects are time-sensitive and prone to cost ove
16、rruns. Airport projects have specific characteristics that distinguish them from other transportation projects. Many of these characteristics are identified and described in ACRP Report 21 A Guidebook for Selecting Airport Capital Project Delivery Methods. There are various techniques for risk analy
17、sis of capital projects. They range from simpler approaches in estimating the expected cost and time impact of risk factors to more sophisticated probabilistic techniques that utilize Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the range of cost overrun or delays. Also, techniques are available that can ass
18、ess the risks involved in the maintenance and upkeep costs of the airport assets. These techniques can be effective if administered correctly and if there is a buy-in by the airport administrators. Task 1 A survey of current practice in airport capital and maintenance projects The objective of this
19、task is to conduct a comprehensive survey among the U.S. airports to obtain information on the degree that these risk assessment techniques are currently being used by the airports. The level of usage given the size and type of the airport, and size and type of the capital or maintenance project sho
20、uld be summarized and reported in a clear format. Depending on the extent of use of risk analysis techniques and their degree of success in dealing with budget and schedule uncertainties, general guidelines can be developed for all airports in general on the types of risk analysis techniques that th
21、ey could use and the type of benefits that will be gained. This in turn will set the stage for developing more comprehensive guidelines for conducting formal risk assessments that can be used by airports for the conduct of risk assessments. The emphasis on this project is limited to impact of risks
22、on cost and schedule for capital and maintenance projects. As such, this effort is much more targeted compared to the Enterprise Risk Assessment project that is currently being funded by the ACRP. At the same time, conduct of this research complement the results of ACRP Project 1-18 Enterprise Risk
23、Management for Airports which is currently underway. Also, as part of this survey (that may be complemented with a few in-depth airport interviews) the contractor1 will develop a standard breakdown of project costs that can be used by airports to report summary level cost breakdown for their capital
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- ACRP Problem No 12 01 11
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