ASIA_EX-JAPAN_MORNING_RESEARCH_SUMMARY-2012-09-14.pdf
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1、EQUITY RESEARCHHong Kong Open | 14 September 2012 ASIA EX-JAPAN MORNING RESEARCH SUMMARY Highlights Kia Motors Corporation (000270.KS) Overweight/Neutral Kia Motors Corporation: Recent weakness an opportunity to accumulate shares Summary of Changes RatingPrice TargetEPS FY1 (E)EPS FY2 (E) Target Pri
2、ce ChangesOldNewOldNewOldNewOldNew Hindalco Industries Ltd.HINDA.NSOWOW159.00145.0018.0516.8016.7616.76 Jindal Steel OW; PT US$153): Latest IUT weekly search traffic data (27 Aug-2 Sept) suggests flattish Qihoo share and a slight rebound for Baidu while Google continues to drop China Eastern Airline
3、s (0670.HK; EW; PT HK$3.32): Thats what we call a peak season China Life (2628.HK; EW; PT HK$26.7): Positive 3Q growth as strong rebound in Aug offsets Jul weakness CPIC (2601. HK; OW; PT HK$36.0): Further slowdown in August, likely from bancassurance weakness DGB Financial Group: Attractive risk re
4、ward Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd.: Reiterate OW rating, and remains one of our top picks on the iPhone 5 product cycle Kia Motors Corporation: Recent weakness an opportunity to accumulate shares LG Display(034220 KS): iPhone 5 launch - LG Display should be a core beneficiary PICC (2328.HK; O
5、W; PT HK$15.8): Steady premium growth in August, no disruptions in sales PT XL Axiata (OW; PT Rp7,600): Etisalat share placement-driven share price weakness offers good opportunity to accumulate Results snapshot: Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK; UW; PT HK$87.50) - in-line; rising property sales and n
6、on-core assets disposals in sight Sichuan Expressway (107 HK; OW; PT HK$4.75): Volumes lurking close to the floor - so is its valuation Industry Research Asia ex-Japan Internet EW; PT HK$26.7): Positive 3Q growth as strong rebound in Aug offsets Jul weakness 13 September 2012 Mark Kellock, Thomas Wa
7、ng China Life reported a 20% y/y increase in premium income in Aug, lifting YTD growth to -3% (from -6% in Jul). This rebound in growth in Aug was likely well ahead of market expectation, and offsets the -10% y/y decline in Jul. 3Q12 premium growth is so far +6% y/y, comparing positively with the -5
8、% y/y decline in 1H12. We see possible positive growth improvements in both agency and bancassurance channel, especially given the low-base effect of 2H11, and note that y/y comparisons will even get easier in 4Q12. View full report on Barclays LiveBack to Top Financial Services CPIC (2601. HK; OW;
9、PT HK$36.0): Further slowdown in August, likely from bancassurance weakness 13 September 2012 Mark Kellock, Thomas Wang CPICs life insurance premium slowed down further in August, to -8% y/y, reducing YTD growth to flat (vs. 1% in July). The main cause is likely further weakness in the bancassurance
10、 channel, which was down 40% y/y in 1H12. Agency growth is likely to be stable, after posting a 14% y/y increase in volume in 1H12 and a 17% y/y increase in agent productivity. View full report on Barclays LiveBack to Top Financial Services DGB Financial Group: Attractive risk reward Stock RatingOve
11、rweight Industry ViewNeutral Price TargetKRW 20000.00 Price (13 Sep 2012)KRW 13450.00 EPS FY1 (E)2180.00 EPS FY2 (E)2388.00 Market Cap (KRW bn)1,802.9725 Ticker139130 KS / 139130.KS Asia ex-Japan Banks Sun Mok Ha +82 2 2126 2933 BCSL, Seoul YooJin Choi, CFA +82 2 2126 2935 BCSL, Seoul 14 September
12、 2012 Although we revise down our earnings forecasts for DGB due mainly to ongoing net interest margin compression, it continues to be one of our top picks in the Korea banks sector along with HFG. We believe that DGB offers an attractive risk-reward on the back of its high ROE outlook, strong capit
13、al, attractive valuation and benign asset quality, coupled with Daegu provinces relatively resilient local economy, and the banks proven operational record. We also notice that foreign investors have returned to buying DGB since July. Our price target is unchanged at W20,000 (1.0x our 2013E BVPS and
14、 8.4x our 2013E EPS), suggesting potential upside of 49%. High ROE and strong capital base: Our average forecast ROE for DGB for 2012E14E is 12.4%, higher than the industry average of 10.3% during the same period. Meanwhile, the banks tier 1 capital at end-2Q12 was the second highest among the Korea
15、 banks, following KEB. Attractive valuation: Despite the banks handsome profitability, robust capital base, and asset quality well in check in this sliding economy, the stock currently trades just at 0.73x our 2013E BVPS and 5.6x our 2013E EPS. Resilient local economy in Daegu: The overall Korea eco
16、nomy is facing macro headwinds. The economic environment in Daegu province is relatively sound, based on industrial production growth, export growth, housing prices, and units of unsold apartments. View full report on Barclays LiveBack to Top Financial Services PICC (2328.HK; OW; PT HK$15.8): Steady
17、 premium growth in August, no disruptions in sales 13 September 2012 Mark Kellock, Thomas Wang PICC reported a 13% y/y increase in premium in August, lifting YTD growth slightly to 11% y/y (from 10% y/y in July). There has been little disruption in August from the typhoon season, and we note that th
18、e recent fatal earthquakes are unlikely to lead to material claims payments, due to low penetration. The outlook for PICCs profitability in 2H12 remains solid, with steady premium growth and stable underwriting performance (combined ratio). View full report on Barclays LiveBack to Top Financial Serv
19、ices Results snapshot: Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK; UW; PT HK$87.50) - in-line; rising property sales and non-core assets disposals in sight 13 September 2012 Andrew Lawrence, Vivien Chan, CFA SHKP reported full-year underlying profits for 2012 at HK$21.7bn in line with FY11 and our own forecast.
20、 The company maintained its full-year dividend at HK$3.35 per share and contrary to market expectations did not pay out a special dividend. View full report on Barclays LiveBack to Top Financial Services Hong Kong Banks: HKIB conference takeaways - Industry experts view on offshore RMB 13 September
21、2012 Sharnie Wong, CA, Shujin Chen Today, we attended the Annual Banking Conference 2012 held by the Hong Kong Institute of Bankers (HKIB) where a panel of banking industry experts discussed the challenges and opportunities of offshore RMB (CNH) business. In summary, the experts believe that near-te
22、rm profitability from CNH business is increasingly under pressure due to the rapid rise in deposit competition, which also supports our view that CNH margins have peaked in 1H12. View full report on Barclays LiveBack to Top Industrials China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK; EW; PT HK$3.32): Thats what we
23、call a peak season 13 September 2012 Patrick Xu, CFA, Jon Windham, CFA Strong growth at cheap valuation: Passenger volume growth accelerated further to +11% y/y in Aug, outstripping capacity growth in terms of ASK and pushing up the passenger load factor for the third consecutive month. The company
24、remains our top pick of the AEJ airlines, with better operating performance and attractive valuation at 0.9x 2013 P/E against 10% ROE. View full report on Barclays LiveBack to Top Industrials Kia Motors Corporation: Recent weakness an opportunity to accumulate shares Stock RatingOverweight Industry
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