BMI Angola Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011.pdf
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1、Q3 2011 oil BMI Oil use of 3.06mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.63mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.62mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.09mn b/d by 2015. Sudan accounted for an estimated 2.64% of 2010 regional oil consumption, with a likely market share of 2.90% by 2015. Table: Africa
2、s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d) Country 2008 2009 2010e 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f Algeria 2,182 2,086 2,079 2,083 2,104 2,167 2,199 2,265 Angola 2,015 1,949 1,963 1,972 2,358 2,340 2,500 2,765 Cameroon 81 77 71 64 71 78 86 88 Republic of Congo 240 275 303 360 353 346 339 332 Egypt 724 684 6
3、68 680 690 700 698 681 EquatorialGuinea 359 346 323 335 385 415 430 447 Gabon 248 242 246 252 255 250 245 240 Ghana 6 6 7 95 120 120 150 200 Libya 1,876 1,790 1,790 431 517 776 1,125 1,575 Nigeria 2,165 2,208 2,455 2,505 2,595 2,685 2,880 3,125 SouthAfrica 180 178 178 186 195 211 211 278 Sudan 478 4
4、83 511 545 590 640 695 735 BMI universe 10,554 10,324 10,593 9,508 10,233 10,727 11,558 12,731 Other Africa 143 145 149 153 158 163 168 173 Regional total 10,697 10,469 10,742 9,661 10,391 10,891 11,726 12,905 e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: Historical data: Energy Information Administration; BMI R
5、egional oil production was 8.08mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.74 mn b/d. From Angola Oil BMI Refining capacity for the region was 2.77mn b/d in 2001, rising gradually to an estimated 2.89mn b/d in 2010. Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria are all expected to increase significantly their
6、 domestic refining capacity, with the regions total capacity forecast to rise to 3.63mn b/d by 2015. In 2010 Sudan had an estimated 4.21% of regional refining capacity, and its market share is forecast at 4.40% in 2015. Angola Oil BMI Angola Oil BMI In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consum
7、ed an estimated 120.6 bcm, with demand of 162.3bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 208.7bcm in 2010 should reach 295.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 104.7bcm to 151.0bcm in 2015. Sudan is currently not a significant producer or consumer of gas. Angola O
8、il BMI The highest growth in LNG exports by 2015 will come from Nigeria (+58% from 2010) and from Algeria (+11%) thanks to its IOC-partnered schemes. There should also be growing volumes from Egypt, although unrest casts doubt on that and the country is struggling against rising domestic gas demand.
9、 Angola has significant longer-term gas export potential, although the first volumes have yet to flow and the most rapid growth phase will occur in the next decade. Equatorial Guinea aims to become a regional LNG export hub. Angola Oil however, the judiciary is far from immune to political influence
10、 from the government and the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola Party of Labour (MPLA) party. In 1991, the constitution was amended in order to guarantee an independent judiciary, but in practice the president appoints the 16 Supreme Court judges for life upon recommendation of an
11、association of magistrates and without confirmation by the National Assembly. He also appoints the attorney general. Political pressure from the presidency has affected the outcome of cases. The judicial system lacks the capacity to assert its independence. Legal reform in 1991 established the right
12、 to public trials, a system of bail, and recognised a defendants right to counsel. But in reality, the government has not yet respected these rights in practice. Angolas legal and judicial system is hampered by a general lack of capacity and has largely ineffective mechanisms for the resolution of c
13、ommercial disputes. As a result, most companies avoid taking disputes to the court system. Some changes have taken place. In 2003, the National Assembly approved the Voluntary Arbitration Law (VAL) to provide a general legal framework for faster, non-judicial arbitration of disputes; however, this h
14、as yet to be properly implemented. Angola is not a signatory to the United Nations (UN)s New York Convention, nor the World Banks International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). Private property rights were introduced in 1993 following a revision of the countrys socialist-inspire
15、d Property Law. Under the Foreign Investment Law, exemption from expropriation is guaranteed. A new Law on Land and Urban Planning took effect in 2004 that assures that land ultimately belongs to the state. But in practice, most urban and some non-urban land will effectively become privately owned t
16、hrough long-term renewable leases. Regulations are anticipated that will outline the proper guidelines for different forms of land use. Angola has only the most basic level of intellectual property rights protection but is looking to boost the legal framework and beef up enforcement. In a positive s
17、tep, in 2005 Luanda signed the Paris Convention for the Protection of Industrial Intellectual Property. Intellectual property is protected through Law 3/92 for industrial property and Law 4/90 for the attribution and protection of copyrights. Angola Oil there is extra risk during the rainy season as
18、 mines may become displaced and end up outside recognised mine fields. There are 232 airports, but just 31 of those have paved runways. Direct flights are available from Paris (with Air France), London (with British Airways) and Lisbon (with TAP). Ethiopian Airlines also offers a flight twice a week
19、 that goes between London and Luanda via Addis Ababa. Germany-based Lufthansa launched a non-stop service from Frankfurt to Luanda at the start of the 2008 summer timetable. Flights are often over-booked. In July 2007, the European Commission placed a complete ban on the Angolan national airline TAA
20、G Angola Airlines (TAAG). In November 2009, however, the ban was relaxed to allow a few select aircraft from the TAAG fleet to make a limited number of flights into Lisbon. Angola Oil many large-scale projects were completed in 2006. Large credit lines have also been received from Brazil, Portugal,
21、Germany, Spain and the EU. That said, a shortage of cement has been a real problem, making rebuilding an expensive task. Labour Force The working population numbers 6.8mn, fewer than half of the total population. There are no accurate or reliable unemployment figures. More than 70% of the workforce
22、is employed in the agriculture sector, the remainder in industry (mainly hydrocarbons and mining) and services. The labour force is subject to high risk of infectious diseases, including hepatitis A and B, polio, rabies, malaria and HIV/AIDS. The regulatory burden is relatively high, with higher-tha
23、n-average costs for firing workers. After the end of a six-month probationary period, dismissed workers have the right to appeal to a Labour Court. The Angolan labour force has low skill levels and there is a lack of employees with the necessary managerial or technical skills. Angola has ratified al
24、l eight core International Labour Organization (ILO) labour conventions. The government has announced, but not yet implemented, a rule requiring oil companies to hire Angolan nationals if qualified applicants are available. Workers have the right to join and form unions, to bargain collectively and
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