BMI China Insurance Report Q4 2011.pdf
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1、Q4 2011 insurance report issn 1750-5623 published by Business Monitor international Ltd. cHina INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2011 Business Monitor Internation
2、al. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, elec
3、tronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be
4、accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affe
5、cting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. CHINA INSURANCE REPORT Q4 2011 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2015
6、 Part of BMIs Industry Report Terrorism risk the risk of terrorist groups (domestic or international) being able to launch a major attack/sustained campaign; and Criminal risk the risk of (politically motivated) violence against expatriate workers. Each of the three risks is given equal weighting. T
7、he Composite domestic risk rating comprises Terrorism and Criminal risk, each of which is given equal weighting. Each rating (State, Terrorism, Criminal) is assessed subjectively by our analysts within a clearly defined methodology, incorporating a minimum of six conceptually distinct elements. Sour
8、ce: BMI China Insurance Report Q4 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 26 Socio-Economic Risks On The Rise The structure of Chinas growth model may be undermining social stability and similarities with the Arab Spring have led to concern about more widespread and organised protests against t
9、he government. While we believe that the Communist Party of China (CPC)s strong support among the middle class will prevent a MENA-style uprising, an economic slowdown will raise the likelihood of further protests. The major risk to the economy comes from the CPC taking more economic power in respon
10、se to perceived threats to its political interests. While the CPC has maintained its legitimacy through fostering high rates of economic growth, the drivers of this growth are increasingly becoming the cause of growing instability. The strategy of pumping up headline real GDP growth, while helping t
11、o create jobs and raising overall income, may also be contributing to the prevalence of corruption and the widening of income inequality, thereby undermining social stability. Growth Drivers A Source Of Unrest Despite the opening up of the private sector, Chinas economic growth model still gives a g
12、reat deal of power to local officials, whose main aims are to generate strong headline real GDP growth in order to increase their chances of promotion. The immense control these local leaders have over provincial economies increases the likelihood of corruption. The liquidity-fuelled growth boom has
13、 exacerbated this longstanding problem. As an example, much of the protest activity in recent years has been the result of families being forcefully evicted from their land without fair compensation as local officials and property developers have sought to capitalise on soaring land prices. Accordin
14、g to a senior government adviser, about 2mn peasants a year have lost their land in this way over the past five years. Inequality Of Privilege A Major Issue The structure of Chinas growth boom has also lead to a rise in income inequality. Chinas income inequality has risen markedly in the past 30 ye
15、ars as the economy has opened up, which itself has been a cause of unrest. However, we believe the main bone of contention is the rise in inequality of opportunity and privilege, rather than income itself (when comparing inequality across the region, Chinas position is mid-table by most measures and
16、 actually ahead of the US according to the CIAs Gini Coefficient Index). This is particularly manifest in the plight of migrant workers. Despite being the engine of Chinas economic growth boom, migrant workers have restricted access to benefits such as health care, education and pensions available t
17、o urban residents under the hukou system, which essentially maintains a strict class structure. As such, migrants are often treated as second class citizens in the major eastern cities where they work and they have been the main participants in protests over recent years. Migrant Worker Protests Res
18、emble MENA Troubles Chinas chengguan (municipal police, many drawn from the ranks of sacked workers from state-owned enterprises) have developed a reputation for their harsh treatment of migrant workers. The State Council China Insurance Report Q4 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 27 Deve
19、lopment Research Centre, a leading CPC thinktank that advises central government officials, published a report calling for better treatment for migrant workers by the chengguan and said angry workers could become a serious threat to Chinas stability if the government does not address their concerns.
20、 This is particularly salient in light of the Arab Spring. In early June 2011, there were large protests among migrant workers when the police pushed a pregnant migrant worker to the ground in Xintang, Guangdong, while forcing her to move her food stand off the road. The incident resembled the trigg
21、er for the Tunisian uprising, when a man who ran a vegetable cart had his possessions confiscated, leading him to set himself on fire outside the provincial headquarters. The protests that followed the incident eventually led to the ousting of longstanding president Zine el- Abidine Ben Ali in Janua
22、ry 2011. The CPC has become increasingly anxious in the aftermath of the MENA protests, stepping up the intensity of their crackdown of protestors, jailing potential dissidents and increasing internet and media censorship. Rather than being simply a knee-jerk reaction to the protests, the government
23、 has been systematically boosting its domestic security apparatus in recent years. Domestic security overtook defence in this years budget and the government has revived a Maoist system of neighbourhood surveillance by civilian volunteers since the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Middle Class Support Remains
24、 A Strong Anchor Of Power The strong control that Chinas central government holds over the economic levers of power, together with its grip on media and surveillance, are the core reasons why we do not expect a MENA-style uprising in China any time soon. While such events are rarely predicted and ca
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