BMI North Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2011.pdf
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1、Q3 2011 telecommunications RepoRt issn 1754-7059 published by Business monitor international ltd. noRtH aFRica INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International Limited 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2011 Busines
2、s Monitor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by an
3、y means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from so
4、urces believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccurac
5、ies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. NORTH AFRICA TELECOMMUNICATIONS REPORT Q3 2
6、011 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2015 Part of BMIs Industry Report these include France Tlcom, Tecom, Wataniya Telecom/Q-Tel and Orascom. ? Three mobile operators now present in all markets except for Libya. ? Despite high penetration rates, the regions mobile market offer reasonable room for furthe
7、r growth. ? A strong market for 3G services exists in Morocco; 3G services are also now available in Tunisia. ? Although ARPUs are not enormous by Middle Eastern standards, they are generally higher than in other regions of Africa. Weaknesses ? A high level of prepaid subscribers in mobile markets h
8、as, to a large degree, not been corrected, leading to lower ARPUs and multiple inactive subscribers. ? The regions more developed markets are now showing slower growth. ? With the exception of Morocco, 3G services have been slow to become available. ? Markets still not fully liberalised, with the ca
9、ncellation of Algrie Tlcoms privatisation an unfortunate step in the wrong direction. Opportunities ? Some operators have made some progress on improving their subscriber mix. ARPUs can be increased if operators target higher spending prepaid customers and convert them to postpaid contracts. ? Oppor
10、tunities exist to develop and market value-added services (VAS) and applications for next generation mobile networks. ? Algeria may be planning to issue 4G operating licences. ? New operating licences either planned or recently awarded should stimulate greater competition and boost growth. Threats ?
11、 More competition could see ARPUs squeezed unless operators can capture VAS opportunities. ? Political change in Libya and Tunisia was assisted by modern communications services; it is possible that the new regimes will appreciate the power of the mobile phone and internet and seek to clamp down on
12、these resources while they consolidate their positions. The Algerian government might also seek to pre-empt revolutionaries use of public communications services should the prospect of rebellion arise. North Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 North Afr
13、ica Fixed-Line And Broadband SWOT Strengths ? Presence of strong foreign investors, including Tecom and France Tlcom, brings excellent resources and experience to North African fixed-line and broadband markets. ? Fixed-line and internet penetration levels are relatively high. ? Fixed-line sectors ha
14、ve been holding out against phenomena such as mobile substitution. ? In most markets, broadband services have yet to make a great impact; they have, nevertheless, shown a tendency towards steady and tenacious growth. Weaknesses ? Mobile substitution is starting to become more of a serious threat to
15、the regions fixed-line markets. ? With the exception of Morocco, little competition exists within the regions fixed-line telephony sectors. ? Markets still not fully liberalised, with the cancellation of Algrie Tlcoms privatisation an unfortunate step in the wrong direction. Opportunities ? Broadban
16、d growth has been adequate but there is room for much more progress, with price being a key factor. ? Opportunities exist to develop alternative fixed broadband technologies such as WiMAX and fibre. ? The introduction of competition into the fixed-line market of Tunisia is a positive step, although
17、we will have to wait a while to feel its impact. ? France Tlcom bought a 40% stake in Meditel: new investment for Meditel could bring renewed vivacity to Moroccos fixed-wireless sector. Threats ? More competition could see fixed-line and internet ARPUs becoming squeezed, unless operators can capture
18、 VAS opportunities. ? Danger that rapidly expanding mobile broadband sectors could dampen growth in demand for fixed broadband services such as ADSL; this already appears to be happening in Morocco. ? Political change in Libya and Tunisia was assisted by modern communications services; it is possibl
19、e that the new regimes will appreciate the power of the mobile phone and internet and seek to clamp down on these resources while they consolidate their positions. The Algerian government might also seek to pre-empt revolutionaries use of public communications services should the prospect of rebelli
20、on arise. North Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 Business Environment Middle East And North Africa With the majority of markets in the Middle East already beyond maturity, changes to their positions in BMIs Business Environment Ratings can be the res
21、ult of tiny increases or decreases to just one of the factors considered when analysing the telecoms markets. Meanwhile, the high political and economic volatility in the region means Country Structure and Country Risk factors continue to play a major role in the overall ratings of many countries in
22、 the region. That said, BMI notes there are still markets with organic growth potential in the mobile sector, while the broadband sector in most markets is still largely underserved. The relatively low average Industry Risk rating of 54 is indicative of the lack of complete independence of many nati
23、onal regulators and high risk of external interference regulatory processes. Meanwhile, the governments of many markets in the region still hold significant interests in their incumbent operators, limiting the full liberalisation of the telecoms market in those countries. This quarter there were a f
24、ew changes to the ARPUs reported by operators across the region, leading to a few shifts in the order of countries. Israels scores remained unchanged with its Country Rewards rating and higher overall Risks scores helping to counter a somewhat mediocre Industry Rewards rating. Certainly Israel has m
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