China Insurance Report - Q3 2013.pdf
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1、Q3 2013 CHINA INSURANCE REPORT INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2022 ISSN 1750-5623 Published by:Business Monitor International China Insurance Report Q3 2013 INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2022 Part of BMIs Industry Report leverage of new (and existing) distribution channels to boost sales; engagement
2、 of first time users of products; ageing demographics (meaning a rise in demand for retirement income products); and, growing demand for financial advice. Savings Accumulate For Now Current Account Balance as % of GDP 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f -1 0 1 2 3 4 Source: National Bureau
3、of Statistics/BMI China Insurance Report Q3 2013 Business Monitor InternationalPage 17 Life Insurance Still A Small Part Of The Savings Picture Life Premiums And Total Bank Liabilities And Capital Total liabilities and capital, CNYmn (LHS) Total life premiums, CNYmn (RHS) 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f
4、 2015f 2016f 2017f 0M 100M 200M 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 Source: Peoples Bank of China/CIRC/BMI Non Life Table: Total Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 201020112012e2013f2014f2015f2016f2017f Total non-life premiums, CNYmn484,846573,281664,356749,209839,134932,380 1,033,534 1,145,903 - % change y-o-y31
5、.818.215.912.812.011.110.810.9 - CNY per capita361425491551615681752831 - % of GDP1.21.21.31.31.31.41.41.4 - % of total premiums33.439.743.244.545.145.747.349.1 Total non-life premiums, US$mn71,62788,681105,318119,491131,629144,555157,791173,622 - % change y-o-y33.023.818.813.510.29.89.210.0 - US$ p
6、er capita5366788896106115126 Total non-life premiums, EURmn53,99863,79982,92789,172103,645117,524131,493144,685 - % change y-o-y40.318.230.07.516.213.411.910.0 China Insurance Report Q3 2013 Business Monitor InternationalPage 18 Total Non-Life Premiums, 2010-2017 - Continued 201020112012e2013f2014f2
7、015f2016f2017f - EUR per capita40476166768696105 Source: CIRC/BMI The 15% growth in non-life premiums (in which we include health and accident insurance) during 2012 confirms that penetration (premiums as a percentage of GDP) continue to rise rapidly - and from what is already quite a high level giv
8、en overall per capita incomes in China. As the table shows, growth in Chinas non-life segment has slowed quite dramatically over the last two years or so - but this is in the context that the sector had been expanding at breakneck speed, with premiums in 200 one-third higher than they had been in 20
9、09. A comparison of (recent) past and forecast non-life premiums with BMIs forecasts for vehicle sales highlights two issues. First, the deceleration in growth is in part due to the sharp slowdown in overall sales of vehicles - which, of course, need to be insured. Second, non-life insurance premium
10、s appear set to rise more rapidly than vehicle sales. This makes sense to us, because we would expect pressure on prices and rates in relation to insurance for motor-related lines to be in a downwards direction. China Insurance Report Q3 2013 Business Monitor InternationalPage 19 Much More Than Just
11、 Motoring Growth In Vehicle Sales And Non-Life Premiums % Vehicle sales, units % chg y-o-y (RHS) Total non-life premiums, CNY % change y-o-y (LHS) 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 10 20 30 40 Source: CAAM/CIRC/BMI Similarly, we expect that continuing investment in
12、 the countrys infrastructure in general (and building/ construction in particular) will be a significant, but not overwhelmingly important driver of growth. A comparison of the relevant projections from BMI suggests that non-life premiums should continue to rise faster. Although it appears not to ha
13、ve been commented on by many of Chinas leading property the restrictions on bancassurance that had been imposed by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC - which has mandated that sales of insurance products in banks must be undertaken by appropriately qualified employees of the banks); and,
14、competition for life insurance from wealth management products (distributed by the banks) and other conduits for organised savings in China. China Life has responded to this difficult environment in a number of ways. It has changed the mix of its business in order to boost embedded value and value o
15、f new business (VONB). In short, the 5.1% fall in gross written premiums in H112 (and consequent loss of market share) was a part of a deliberate policy to focus on profits rather than on growth for its own sake. As we explain in the profile of the company elsewhere in this report, China Life has in
16、troduced new products. It has boosted the productivity of its sales force. It has grown corporate business in the direct channel. It has also boosted the E-China Life mobile marketing system and nurtured telemarketing (where premiums continue to grow at double-digit rates, if from a low base. China
17、Insurance Report Q3 2013 Business Monitor InternationalPage 27 We highlight two other key developments. First, China Life (and, by extension, the other Chinese majors) have access to the capital that they need at a time that their businesses are growing (if not necessarily in terms of gross written
18、premiums). This is in spite of their huge absolute size. In June 2012, the market leader boosted its solvency ratio by successfully undertaking a massive CNY28bn issue of sub-ordinated term debt. Secondly, during the first six months of the year, China Life exploited the liberalisation of CIRCs rule
19、s governing investment by insurance companies. It has made investments (or taken the first steps towards doing so) in unlisted equity, Private Equity, infrastructure debt products and real estate. This is encouraging, because China Lifes profitability in H112 suffered as a result of the often challe
20、nging conditions in financial markets. Many of the themes highlighted by China Pacific in its reports for H112 and the first three quarters of 2012 were similar to those that were mentioned by China Life. In essence, the company has been able to counter a sharp contraction in sales through bancassur
21、ance with a rise in sales through the agency channel - thanks in part to deliberate efforts to boost the productivity of its agency network. In relation to the first nine months of 2012, the company noted that its life premiums were more or less unchanged (in comparison with those of the previous co
22、rresponding period) at CNY74,988mn: In particular, premiums from new insurance policies amounted to CNY31,424mn, while premiums from renewed policies amounted to CNY43,514mn. The individual channel maintained its rapid growth and premiums from new policies reached CNY9,631mn, representing an increas
23、e of 11.2%, among which the premiums from new regular insurance policies of the individual channel amounted to CNY9,033mn. Ping An, too, has emphasised that different parts of its business have been developing at different speeds. In the first nine months of 2012, the companys overall life premiums
24、were CNY157,568mn, or 6% more than in the corresponding period of 2011. However, this growth was driven by the more profitable individual life products, whose premiums rose by 9.8% to CNY138,709mn. Relative to the local life insurance companies, most of the foreign majors that are operating in China
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