China Infrastructure Report Q2 2012.pdf
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1、Q2 2012 infrastructure report issn 1752-5306 published by Business Monitor international Ltd. cHina INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2012 Business Monitor Intern
2、ational. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic,
3、 electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed t
4、o be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions
5、 affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. CHINA INFRASTRUCTURE REPORT Q2 2012 INCLUDES 10-YEAR INDUST
6、RY FORECASTS TO 2021 Part of BMIs Industry Report the Chinese government has decided to blacklist contractors convicted of bribery and ban them from working on construction projects in five provincial areas. Weaknesses ? The liquidity provided by the Chinese government for infrastructure investment,
7、 fuelled by cheap credit thanks to strict controls on capital outflows, means there is the possibility of cost overruns and miscalculations on a massive scale. ? Opaque regulatory environment does not protect technological know-how of foreign companies; as a result technology transfer erodes the adv
8、antage of foreign expertise. ? Corruption, bribery, embezzlement and fraud are widespread in the construction industry; the culture of guanxi, or connections, helps propagate corruption in the system, making it difficult for foreign companies to compete with local firms. Opportunities ? China is for
9、ecast to overtake the US as the largest construction industry globally by 2015. ? Deregulation in certain sectors where foreign expertise is needed has created opportunities for foreign investors in niche infrastructure areas, such as wind power and water. Threats ? Continuous deceleration of gross
10、fixed capital formation (GFCF) real growth throughout 2009 and 2010. ? The main threats to the industry are political, economic and social millions of internal migrants from rural and township areas, who work in construction in the big cities, may create unrest due to poor working conditions. ? The
11、continued existence of the communist regime is not guaranteed in the long term, although the governments development programmes have driven growth in infrastructure spending. ? Although China has been opening up to the world since 1979, there is no guarantee that access to the market will get easier
12、 for foreign firms if the government decides to protect its domestic industry from global competitive pressures. China Infrastructure Report Q2 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 Market Overview Competitive Landscape Table: China EQS Name Latest FY Earnings Market Cap (US$mn) Revenue (US
13、$mn) Net income (US$mn) Total Debt/Ebitda Interest Coverage Ratio PE Ratio China State Construction -A 12/2010 14434.72 52499.68 1364.937 4.355951 6.140707 9.806452 Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd-H 12/2010 14374.98 5099.074 910.7393 1.348379 12.9032 9.761757 China Communications Const-H 12/2010 12996.77
14、40300.21 1457.394 4.420535 4.261685 7.011324 China Railway Group Ltd-H 12/2010 8252.636 67395.36 1106.751 5.338692 3.297819 6.338166 China Railway Construction- H 12/2010 7701.894 67430.37 627.4377 2.939594 3.906389 10.17822 Metallurgical Corp Of Chin-A 12/2010 7442.961 30498 786.2511 8.612319 2.275
15、787 9.5 Sinohydro Group Ltd-A 12/2010 6488.027 14636.62 430.1506 5.323041 - 9.680345 China National Building Ma- H 12/2010 5796.623 7681.909 497.8802 4.761751 3.824145 6.113906 China Gezhouba Group Co Lt-A 12/2010 4355.115 5277.948 203.4317 6.140994 3.297354 16.3505 Shanghai Construction Co-A 12/201
16、0 1696.63 10218.87 135.3723 3.351347 9.787724 9.27 *exchange rates accurate as of 12/01/2012. Source: Bloomberg Chinas infrastructure market is dominated by state-owned enterprises. Although relatively young compared to other infrastructure players in developed markets, these companies have grown ra
17、pidly in tandem with Chinas economy and have become some of the largest construction companies globally. In 2009, two Chinese state-owned construction companies, China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) and Metallurgical Corporation of China were the two largest initial public offeri
18、ngs (IPOs) in the world. Although initially specialising in certain infrastructure sub-sectors, the Chinese companies have since branched out to other construction businesses. One example is China Gezhouba Group Corporation, a Chinese state-owned company that initially focused on the construction of
19、 hydropower dams, but has since branched out into toll road operations, real estate, railways and airports. Chinas state-owned infrastructure majors have also benefited from the governments lack of trust in non- Chinese and even non-state entities. Foreign infrastructure companies are only allowed t
20、o enter the Chinese market if domestic companies do not have the technical expertise, or through minority stakes in China Infrastructure Report Q2 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9 joint ventures (JVs) with domestic companies. Sectors that have been opened to foreign expertise are: the
21、onshore wind power sector, where manufacturers such as Vestas and Suzlon have greatly increased their exposure; nuclear power, where French nuclear technology major Areva increased its ties with the largest Chinese nuclear players, with multibillion euro agreements concluded with Chinese companies i
22、n November 2010; and metros, with Hong Kongs MTR holding the concession to build and operate the Shenzhen metro. Overall, however, very high barriers to entry for foreign infrastructure companies mean that Chinese companies have been able to reap the full benefits of the governments economic stimulu
23、s package, launched in 2009. Of the CNY4trn (US$598bn) stimulus plan, almost CNY3.2trn (US$478bn) was allocated to various infrastructure projects, of which 56% went towards railways. This had a positive impact on the financial performance of Chinese infrastructure companies in 2009. China Railway C
24、onstruction Corporation and China Railway Group, Chinas two largest state-owned railway construction companies, saw revenues increase by 57% and 48% in 2009 respectively, compared to 28% and 27% in 2008. The unwinding of stimulus measures will therefore reduce the number of new projects available. H
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