China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report - Q3 2013.pdf
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1、Q3 2013 CHINA PHARMACEUTICALS +17.5% in local currency and +18.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q213. Healthcare: CNY2,836.8bn (US$449.7bn) in 2012 to CNY3,271.5bn (US$521.8bn) in 2013; +15.3% in local currency terms and +16.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with previou
2、s quarter. Risk/Reward Rating: Chinas Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q313 is 63.5 out of the maximum 100 under our newly improved RRR system. The country scored above average for majority of the indicators and sub-indicators including overall market expenditure, sector value growt
3、h, patent respect and policy continuity. Consequently China is ranked fourth, behind Japan, South Korea and Australia among the 18 key markets in Asia Pacific, the first in terms of developing countries. Key Trends And Developments In May 2013, Amgen and Zhejiang Beta Pharma have signed an agreement
4、 to form a joint venture (JV) to commercialise Amgens Vectibix (panitumumab) in China. The JV will benefit from Zhejiang Beta Pharmas expertise in the development and commercialisation of molecularly targeted therapies, as well as Zhejiang Beta Pharmas oncology sales network in China. In April 2013,
5、 Merck 12.3%) and patented pharmaceuticals (+20.8%; 19.8%). The key driver of the OTC medicine market is Chinas booming economy. Real GDP growth of 10.3% in 2010 resulted in more demand for products that alleviate minor health complaints, such as headaches, indigestion and fever. A sizeable proporti
6、on of increased sales will be from first-time buyers of OTC medicines. Several other factors will sustain the sector over the medium term. Reinforcing the regional trend, advertising will become more common and marketing techniques will become increasingly sophisticated. OTC Drug Expenditure Forecas
7、t 2009-2022 Over-the-counter (OTC) medicine sales, US$bn (LHS) Over-the-counter (OTC) medicine sales, % of total sales (RHS) 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 0 25 50 0 50 100 f= BMI forecast. Source: Association of the European Self- Medication Society
8、 (AESGP), BMI China Pharmaceuticals US$1.6bn) and analgesics (CNY9.0bn; US$1.3bn). There are a few risks to our OTC medicine market forecast for China. Competition will become increasingly fierce as every major global player seeks to penetrate one of the most attractive propositions in BMIs industry
9、 coverage universe. The inevitable price wars and marketing campaigns will be compounded by austerity measures implemented by the state. Moreover, huge differences between regional markets will punish those without local knowledge. In addition, the CFDA proposed to revise advertising laws to prohibi
10、t OTC drugs advertisements through the mass media. Instead, companies will only be allowed to advertise in a specific medical newsletter approved by the Ministry of Health and the SFDA in October 2012. Pharmaceutical firms with a strong portfolio in OTC drugs will potentially see a loss of revenues
11、if they are stopped from advertising in the mass media. The ability to advertise in a medical newsletter is not necessarily as effective as promotion on television or radio given that there is nothing to ensure that all consumers will get a copy of the newsletter. According to the CPMA, in a meeting
12、 to discuss the impact of the SFDAs proposed regulation, the majority of the companies opposed it, highlighting the importance of advertisements to them. The attendees included multinational pharmaceutical firms such as Bayer, Novartis, Wyeth and Sanofi, plus local pharmaceutical firms including Har
13、bin Pharmaceutical, Tianjin Tasly, Yunnan Baiyao and China Resources Double- Crane. Like Chinas prescription pharmaceutical sector, foreign consumer health companies in the OTC market generally form joint ventures with indigenous players. However, unlike with prescription pharmaceuticals, local firm
14、s dominate the OTC sector. In July 2011, Hutchison China MediTech (Chi- China Pharmaceuticals exchange rate, capital account and interest rate liberalisation; reform to the hukou household registration system; and resource pricing reform, to name a few. Firstly, wholesale reform will require Beijing
15、 to take on the vested interests of local governments and politicians, whose performance is inextricably tied to land sales, property markets, and flagship infrastructure projects. Secondly, we have yet to see a reining in of credit excesses. On a 12-month moving average basis, net new total social
16、financing (TSF, a measure of aggregate credit supply) came in at an all- time high of CNY1.45trn in February. If the current pace were sustained, new credit issuance would equate to a whopping 30.5% of GDP in 2013. Credit Still Flowing Freely China - New Total Social Financing, CNYbn Source: BMI, PB
17、oC China Pharmaceuticals 2 World Bank/UN/BMI; 3 National Bureau of Statistics. China Pharmaceuticals +24% from Q109), followed by alimentary tract and metabolism drugs (US$4,636mn; +29%), cardiovascular system drugs (US$5,652mn; +27%) and various medicines (US$1,167; +33%). Like most countries, Chin
18、a has a negative pharmaceutical trade balance. The country imported medicines worth US$9.97bn in 2011. The leading countries of origin were the US (US$1.78bn), Germany (US $1.62bn), France (US$574mn) Italy (US$470mn) and Switzerland (US$756mn). In 2011, Chinas leading Pharmaceutical Market By Sub- S
19、ector (US$bn) 2012 Source: Association of the European Self-Medication Society (AESGP), BMI China Pharmaceuticals a move expected to benefit Chinas R filgrastim). The company is also reported to be working on a topical form of chemotherapy drug, molgramostim. Although many international biopharmaceu
20、tical companies have yet to enter the Chinese market, China has the potential to become an ideal location from which to base a global biologic generics player. The countrys ultimate aim is to rival Singapore as a location for multinational investment in Asia, which presently retains significant adva
21、ntages in terms of its IP regime. Nevertheless, one benefit for China is low-cost conditions; chemists earn up to US$50,000 in China compared with US$300,000 in the US. Other benefits are found in the presence of highly skilled technologists and scientists, generous tax incentive schemes and an entr
22、epreneurial culture, all of which indicate a promising future for biotechnology. Under Chinas 12th five-year plan, the country aims to spend CNY2trn (US$308.5bn) on science and technology, making biotechnology a major priority. From 2011 to 2015, the biotechnology industry is expected to generate 1m
23、n. The government is also encouraging key pharmaceutical companies to invest more than 5% of annual revenue in R otherwise they will not be allowed to produce pharmaceuticals. Deadline: July 1 2013Deadline: January 1 2015 Manufacturers that failed to attain GMP certification will not be able to file
24、 for drug registration. Deadline: January 1 2014Deadline: January 1 2016 Companies that do not wish to be certified can opt to transfer their technology to a GMP-certified facility. Deadline: December 31 2014Deadline: December 31 2016 Companies who are in the midst of compliance (but yet to be certi
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