China Autos Report - Q3 2013.pdf
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1、Q3 2013 CHINA AUTOS REPORT INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2017 ISSN 1748-9830 Published by:Business Monitor International China Autos Report Q3 2013 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2017 Part of BMIs Industry Report 2012 (RHS) 2012 figures are USGS estimates. Source: BMI, US Geological Survey (USGS) Whil
2、e Japan has recently inked an agreement to import 4,100 tonnes of REE from India annually and plans to import another 400 tonnes and 9,000 tonnes from Kazakthstan and Australia respectively in 2013, we believe any recycling efforts by the corporate sector will go a long way in helping to meet Japans
3、 annual REE needs of between 20,000-30,000 tonnes. The commercial viability of this technology is already being tested this month, with Japan Metals shipping the first batch of neodymium, a rare earth obtained from the recycling process, to battery- makers. As this technology becomes mature, we expe
4、ct other Japanese automakers to follow Hondas lead, so as to make their production processes more sustainable and at the same time, assist Japan in its aim to reduce reliance on Chinese REE imports. Honda intends to use its overseas sales network in the US and Europe to speed up the collection of us
5、ed hybrid vehicle batteries. BMI believes that other automakers could also leverage on their widespread dealership and sales networks, and collect used batteries for recycling purposes, from returning customers who are looking to trade in/swap their depleted batteries. China Autos Report Q3 2013 Bus
6、iness Monitor InternationalPage 40 Wanxiang Win Shows Growing Chinese Clout Chinas largest auto parts maker, Wanxiang Group, has won the auction to buy the assets of A123 Systems Inc, a bankrupt US lithium-ion battery manufacturer. The sale includes A123s automotive, grid and commercial business, as
7、 well as its three factories in the US. Wanxiangs winning bid of US$256.6mn topped a joint-bid from US battery maker, Johnson Controls (JCI) and Japanese firm, NEC Corp. In order to skirt political opposition, Wanxiang did not bid for A123s government and military business, which will instead be bou
8、ght by US firm, Navitas Systems, for US$2.25mn. BMI has previously highlighted the trend of Chinese companies in the auto industry acquiring foreign electric vehicle (EV) technology (see Dongfeng Seeks To Acquire EV Technology, October 24 2012). Given that Chinese firms are lagging in their EV techn
9、ology development, we see the continuation of this trend. While we do not know the value of the JCI and NEC joint bid in this latest auction, a previous JCI bid for A123s automotive division was just US$125mn, and JCI was unwilling to match Wanxiangs bid in this latest auction. Wanxiangs high bid de
10、monstrates the eagerness of the Chinese company to get its hands on advanced battery technology for electric cars. Very Eager For The Prize A123s Assets And Liabilities, US$mn (LHS); History Of Bids, US$mn (RHS) Source: BMI China Autos Report Q3 2013 Business Monitor InternationalPage 41 While preli
11、minary reactions from analysts suggest that Wanxiang is not going to make much profit from this takeover in the short term, we believe it is a good long-term move by the company to gain access to advanced research and development (R 2 World Bank/UN/BMI; 3 National Bureau of Statistics. China Autos R
12、eport Q3 2013 Business Monitor InternationalPage 49 Industry Risk Reward Ratings Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings The aim of BMIs business environment rating system for the automotive industry is to show the rewards and the risks that carmakers operating in a particular region - in this case Asia Pa
13、cific - may face. The unique system assesses crucial factors, such as sales and output growth, international trade, market size and location, and the level of market competition, in addition to taking into account a countrys economic and political backdrop. The ratings system allows analysts to full
14、y expound the potential advantages and disadvantages of investing in Asian car markets, and offers an overall comparison of the key markets in the region. The ratings have changed slightly against the backdrop of the global economic slowdown, as some markets have proved better equipped to cope than
15、others. Australia now leads the regional rankings, with a much higher score of 70.1 out of a possible 100, compared with 65.3 in the last ratings. The developed nature of the country means that Australia is at a disadvantage due the near-saturation status of its autos market, which reduces growth po
16、tential. On the other hand, a high GDP increases purchasing power, while market risks are reduced by low levels of corruption and a strong legal framework. This is reflected in the markets high score for its low risk. Its country rewards score has also risen from 66.7 to 87.2. China has now fallen t
17、o second, although its overall score has risen from 66.5 to 67.7. The markets highest scores are still for its production and sales growth potential, based on BMIs forecasts, although signs of a slowdown in the market have been evident. Even though a low level of vehicle ownership can look tempting
18、in terms of possible growth, the low score for country structure (caused by the large gap that exists between wealthy towns and poorer rural areas) acts as a clear restriction on potential penetration. In terms of Chinas macroeconomic environment, a healthy long-term political and economic outlook e
19、nsures strong scores for country risk. A country held back by an autos market on the brink of saturation is South Korea, which has stayed in third place with 66.8 out of 100, up from 64.2. Historically poor labour relations weigh on the countrys overall rating, although long-term political and econo
20、mic stability reduce the risks. The score for country rewards has risen from 52.2 to 65.8. Free trade agreements add to South Koreas sound regulatory environment, although there is room for improvement if a deal with the US can be ratified. Japan stays in fourth with an overall rating of 61.1, up fr
21、om 60.6 in the previous ratings. However, the risks associated with a developed market still exist. Just as Australia and South Korea suffer in the ratings due to China Autos Report Q3 2013 Business Monitor InternationalPage 50 their developed statuses, a saturated market also weighs on Japans ratin
22、gs. While the country scores well in terms of country risk, with low levels of corruption and a sound legal framework that have bumped up the markets overall score, the autos industry is nearing full capacity, and this consequently reduces production growth potential, while the high level of vehicle
23、 ownership restricts possible sales growth. Labour costs are also high, which adds to the cost of expanding production. Moving up to fifth is Thailand, which has benefited from an improved country risk score, taking its overall rating to 58.3. A number of new export-oriented investment projects have
24、 raised the countrys production growth potential for the next five years, despite the current downturn, while several existing free trade agreements have increased the reach of investors. Government incentives for manufacturers producing low- emission vehicles have boosted Thailands regulatory envir
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