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1、Q2 2012 oil Source: Historical, EIA; Forecast, BMI Table: China Oil Source: Historical, EIA; Forecast, BMI China Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI China Oil Source: Historical, Energy Information Administration; Estimates/Forecasts, BMI China Oil e
2、= estimate; na = not available/applicable. Source: BMI China Oil na = not available/applicable. Source: Company data, 2009. China Oil this was confirmed more recently by the Nigerian upstream acquisition. CNOOC is also developing petrochemicals and refining interests through IOC JVs, which will even
3、tually change the shape of the business. SWOT Analysis Strengths: Leading offshore oil production position Growing reserves and output Rising international upstream exposure High efficiency and low costs Weaknesses: Limited upside potential from Chinese fields Risk of overpayment for non-China asset
4、s Opportunities: International diversification Downstream oil and gas diversification Strong domestic energy demand growth Threats: Rising investment requirement Competition in Chinas offshore segment Lower returns from downstream investments Changes in national energy policy Address ? CNOOC Limited
5、 Offshore Petroleum Plaza No 6, Dongzhimenwai Xiaojie DongCheng District Beijing, 100027 China ? Tel: +86 (10) 8452 1646 ? Fax: +86 (10) 8452 1441 ? Web: Financial Statistics Sales ? CNY183.1bn (2010) ? CNY105.2bn (2009) ? CNY126.0bn (2008) ? CNY90.7bn (2007) Net income ? CNY54.4bn (2010) ? CNY29.5
6、bn (2009) ? CNY44.4bn (2008) ? CNY31.3bn (2007) Operating Statistics ? Year established: 1982 ? Total proven oil reserves: 1.89mn bbl (2010e) Net oil production: ? 721,644b/d (2010) ? 509,696b/d (2009) ? 422,068 b/d (2008) Net gas production: ? 10.75bcm (2010) ? 6.75bcm (2009) ? 6.42bcm (2008) China
7、 Oil na = not applicable. Source: Historical data: EIA/BMI. All forecasts: BMI. China Oil na = not applicable. Source: Historical data: EIA/BMI. All forecasts: BMI. China Oil Upstream Oil Downstream Oil Both the upstream and downstream are composed of Risks/Rewards sub-ratings, which themselves comp
8、rise industry-specific and broader country risk components; Rewards: Evaluates the sectors size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry and state characteristics that may inhibit its development; Risks: Evaluates both industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the state
9、s political and economic profile that call into question the likelihood of expected returns being realised over the assessed time period. China Oil China Oil ? International quotas, guidelines and projections such as OPEC, IEA, and EIA. Energy consumption A mixture of methods are used to generate de
10、mand forecasts, applied as appropriate to each individual country: ? Underlying economic (GDP) growth for individual countries/regions, sourced from BMI published estimates. Historic relationships between GDP growth and energy demand growth at an individual country are analysed and used as the basis
11、 for predicting levels of consumption; ? Government projections for oil, gas and electricity demand; ? Third-party agency projections for regional demand, such as IEA, EIA, OPEC; ? Extrapolation of capacity expansion forecasts based on company- or state-specific investment levels. Cross checks Whene
12、ver possible, we compare government and/or third party agency projections with the declared spending and capacity expansion plans of the companies operating in each individual country. Where there are discrepancies, we use company-specific data as physical spending patterns to ultimately determine c
13、apacity and supply capability. Similarly, we compare capacity expansion plans and demand projections to check the energy balance of each country. Where the data suggest imports or exports, we check that necessary capacity exists or that the required investment in infrastructure is taking place. Sources Sources include those international bodies mentioned above such as OPEC, IEA, and EIA, as well as local energy ministries, official company information, and international and national news, and international and national news agencies.
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