EMERGING_MARKET_CORPORATES:LATAM_OIL_&_GAS_3Q12_RESULTS_&_ZSCORE_VALUATION_UPDATE-2012-11-28.pdf
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1、Global Emerging Markets Oil 27 November 2012 Emerging Market Corporates LatAm Oil currently standing at -0.71 which warrants a Hold, in our view. Ecopetrol posted mixed results in 3Q12 as revenues declined 3.8% qoq but remained stable on a yoy basis. The qoq decline was mainly driven by lower sales
2、volumes. Furthermore, Ecopetrols EBITDA declined 11.7% qoq and 12.9% yoy to COP6.2tn driven by softer top line results and a surge in COGS. Nevertheless, the companys balance sheet remains the healthiest among LatAm peers in our view: Ecopetrol had a negative net debt to EBITDA of 0.3x in 3Q12 compa
3、red to a positive 0.3x in 2Q12 and 0.1x in 3Q11. Petrobras zscore update and 3Q12 results With PBRs bond zscores updated to Nov 26th, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the 20s and 21s as they maintained zscore values above the 1 standard deviation mark. We also maintain our Sell call for the 14s
4、, 15s and both 18s. Petrobras 3Q12 earnings showed a sequential improvement in top line results, but were overshadowed by higher discounts to international benchmarks; this was worsened by lower production and higher imports, which in turn continue to pressure profitability. The controversy over dom
5、estic fuel price decisions looks set to persist. Cash requirements continue to weigh on leverage and liquidity with LTM net leverage at 2.4x for 3Q12, up from 2.3x in 2Q12 and the 1.5x in 3Q11. Year-to-date PBR has issued USD10.5bn in international markets, with asset sales and another round of jumb
6、o USD bond issues expected for Jan-Feb. Pemex zscore update and 3Q12 results According to our zscore methodology, none of the Pemex bonds have a Buy call; unchanged from our last weekly update on Nov 19th - we had three Sell recommendations and a Hold on the remainder of the complex. Pemexs medium t
7、erm bonds have the largest negative zscores with the 8.0% 19s at -1.65, the 5.75% 18s at -1.59 and the 6.0% 20s at -1.54. In its 3Q12 results, Pemex posted crude oil production of 2,451kbpd - slightly below 2012 guidance of 2,560kbpd. Sales improved as local prices for oil products rose and costs re
8、mained under control. As a result, EBITDA for 3Q12 declined 3.1% qoq but increased 11.7% yoy to MXN282.8bn. Leverage remained low despite a decline in cash as Pemexs total debt in 3Q12 declined 3.6% qoq. Year-to-date the company has issued USD4.35bn, matching the USD4.35bn guidance in their financin
9、g plan. We highlight the risks to our recommendations. Risks on the Oil and Gas quasi sovereign bonds include but are not limited to: global growth and energy demand and commodity price risk, changes in government regulation, taxation and royalty regimes, high investment requirements, general sovere
10、ign and fiscal risks due to their government ownership/control and sponsorship, changes in rules regulating foreign currency revenues and profits, foreign currency risks, environmental risks and project/operating risks. Upside risks include an early, effective resolution to the EU sovereign/bank cri
11、sis and/or to the US fiscal cliff, stronger than expected global growth and oil prices, and unexpected rich oil and gas discoveries. 27 November 2012 Oil Emerging Market Corporates Page 2 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Table of Contents Commodities Quarterly crude oil overview . 3 Financial results 4
12、 Ecopetrol SA 3Q12 results (unconsolidated). 5 Petrobras 3Q12 results . 8 Pemex 3Q12 results . 12 PDVSA 15 Annex 1 - Valuation trends 17 Annex 2 - Industry trends 19 27 November 2012 Oil Emerging Market Corporates Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3 Commodities Quarterly crude oil overview In the f
13、ollowing section, we provide DBs commodities team views regarding the outlook for crude oil taken from the Commodities Quarterly report of October the 2nd. We highlight a condensed version of the main points of the report considering the demand and supply analysis, as well as the price outlook. Over
14、view Supply worries driven by production/export disruptions due to geopolitics and/or operational issues have, for the most part, edged out fears over a more significant drop in demand and continue to pose upside risk to the market. DB economists project growth will bottom out in Q3/Q4 of this year
15、and accelerate in 2013, largely the 2H, with GDP forecast to pick up to 3.2% next year from 2.9% growth projected this year. Based on their projections, this implies that while global oil demand growth rates will be moderate, demand will not falter meaningfully. In addition, central bank action, not
16、ably the Feds liquidity injections, is broadly seen as supportive for growth and consequently beneficial for commodities. Demand The DB commodities team forecasts global oil demand next year will grow by 850kbd, or just under 1% yoy. China remains a focal point given its dominant role in global oil
17、demand on a growth basis, as the countrys oil demand is expected to contribute 40% of global oil demand growth next year. DB economists project Chinas GDP at 7.7% this year and 8.2% next year, down from the 8.3% and 8.6% respective forecasts made at the start of the year. Based on the recent downgra
18、des to Chinas GDP, the countrys oil demand growth is forecasted to rise by 2.6% this year and 3.7% for the next year. Demand outside of China in other parts of the EM world has been generally healthy. For example Saudi oil demand YTD is up 5% and Brazils oil demand YTD is up 4.3%. The DB commodities
19、 team forecasts EM demand, excluding China, will average growth of 2.6% this year and 2.4% next year, led by the Middle East and Latin America. Supply Non-OPEC supply growth this year is forecast to exceed that of last year, according to all three benchmark forecasters. Higher non-OPEC supply for ne
20、xt year is predicated on expectations for increased production in the Middle East and Latin America, while US output growth is expected to moderate to about 500kbd in 2013 from 800kbd growth in 2012. However, non-OPEC production disappointments pose the risk of downward adjustments to supply growth
21、and disruptions that persist today will remain a key feature of next years balance in light of ongoing geopolitical risks. Price outlook The DB commodities team raised their oil price forecast in light of the impressive rebound in prices since the steep declines in June/July. Brent oil is forecast t
22、o average USD113/bbl this year and USD113.50/bbl next year. Geopolitical supply risks will continue to pose upside risks to the market going into next year as tensions in the Middle East persist with Iran and Syria at the epicenter. Though economists see global growth improving next year, albeit mod
23、estly, downside risks remain in the form of a worsening Eurozone sovereign crisis, fiscal uncertainty in the US and potential deterioration in Chinese economic data. 27 November 2012 Oil Emerging Market Corporates Page 4 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Financial results Below we present a summary of t
24、he latest financial results of LatAms major quasi-sovereign Oil * As of January, 2012 Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data 27 November 2012 Oil Emerging Market Corporates Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 5 Ecopetrol SA 3Q12 results (unconsolidated) Revenues were mixed, mainly pressured by lower sal
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