EUROPEAN_INTEGRATED_OILS_:LNG_INTO_2020_AND_BEYOND-2012-08-30.pdf
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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Europe United Kingdom Oil ENI lags (for now) . 12 Decade of two halves . 14 Near term the Asia Pacific basin is short with little scope for relief 14 Demand to 2020 and beyond . 16 Underlying growth augmented by new demand centres 16 LNG supply to 2025 24 Many horses b
2、ut several will fail to reach the FID post . 24 The supply opportunity with 80mtpa in build, 190mtpa of further additions by 2025 . 24 US exports what should we expect? . 29 Where to price - Oil linkage to remain but with a slice of Hub? 32 US LNG exports the chance for the arbitrageur to rejuvenate
3、 . 33 LNG to 2025: Corporate implications . 35 An attractive end market offering strong growth potential . 35 The Companies: Overview 38 Comparing and contrasting the LNG majors 2017 vs. 2012 . 38 Comparing and contrasting the LNG majors Side by Side . 39 Appendix A: US exports and European gas . 54
4、 Appendix B: US supplier economics 57 Sabine Pass - what does it tell us about capacity charge flex? . 57 Appendix C: Shipping in brief . 59 Those relying on short term charters risk losing upside 59 Appendix D: Portfolios Wood Mackenzie Inc RDS, XOM, CVX, BP, ENI, BG, TOTF, STL Source: Deutsche Ban
5、k; Wood Mackenzie The major oil Energy intelligence Source: Deutsche Bank; Wood Mackenzie GLO Near term great but discoveries, US exports all add longer term uncertainty Yet where near term visibility is in our opinion as good as we can remember the discovery of up to 100TCF of new gas resource off
6、the coast of East Africa together with a flood of export applications in North America argue that the balance in the market is set to change. Buyers ostensibly look set to find themselves in a much stronger negotiating position. Equally, the emergence of the US as a potential supply source has raise
7、d important questions on the sustainability of the historic linkage between contract LNG prices and the oil price, let alone whether a repeat of the US shale experience in China could materially undermine projected future LNG demand. Thus, where we are confident in the favourable outlook for the mar
8、ket through at least the middle of the current decade, push beyond and several questions arise around the sources of supply, the nature of pricing and, perhaps most fundamentally, the outlook for demand. For without demand you dont have a contract. And in an industry where construction costs run in
9、multiple $-billions and speculative build DOES NOT HAPPEN, if you dont have a contract, you dont have a project. Projections for demand are therefore absolutely fundamental to the supply industrys prospects. Underlying growth augmented by new demand centres Over the past two decades the LNG market h
10、as grown at a compound rate of c7% p.a with demand driven, amongst others, by strong growth in the developed Asian economies (JKT), lower relative pricing and the shift towards lower carbon fuels. To the As LNG becomes a larger part of the whole how comfortable are we on the outlook? In the near ter
11、m we have little doubt that barring a demand collapse across Asia the global market for LNG will exhibit increasing tightness through at least 2015 Yet where near term visibility is robust the emergence of several new sources of supply raise questions over execution, delivery and price Thus push bey
12、ond and several questions arise around the sources of supply, the nature of pricing and, perhaps most fundamentally, the outlook for demand 27 August 2012 Integrated Oils European Integrated Oils Deutsche Bank AG/London Page5 extent growth has moderated in developed markets on a decade by decade bas
13、is this has been more than offset by the emergence of new demand centres, largely as developing economies have increasingly introduced lower cost gas into the fuel mix. Figure 5: LNG demand growth two decades of growth at some 6-8% with moderating underlying growth augmented by new demand centres mt
14、pa mtpa 1990-2000 1990-2000 2000-20102000-20102010-2020E2010-2020E2020-2025E2020-2025E Demand start 55.9 102.7219.3368.7 Demand end 102.7 219.3368.7457.2 Growth rate % 6.3% 7.9%5.3%4.4% New sources 483127 Growth rate underlying % 6.3% 5.2%4.4%3.1% Source: Deutsche Bank; Wood Mackenzie estimates Look
15、ing ahead, this healthy growth trend is expected to continue with demand supported by increased concerns around nuclear energy and the ongoing shift towards lower carbon fuel. Equally, where growth from existing end markets is expected to slow, new sources of demand continue to emerge. At the presen
16、t time over 20 countries as diverse as Thailand through Poland through Jordan are estimated to have firm plans to import LNG with some 75mtpa of new import facilities in train. New geographies aside, however, the main drivers of growth in existing markets are expected to change with China and India
17、contributing increasingly to existing market expansion. Taken together Wood Mac estimates suggest that it is China and India that will account for c65-70mtpa or 2010-20 demand growth or broadly half of the projected growth in demand (c35mtpa of which has already been contracted). Figure 6: Major eco
18、nomies energy mix shows scope for EM growth in gas Figure 7: China, India and other Asia are account for over 50% LNG demand 28% 25% 20% 13% 16% 10% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% USEuropean 5JapanTaiwanKoreaIndiaChina CoalOilGasNuclearHydroelectricityOther renewables 10% 0% 26% 32%
19、14% 9% 10% 2% 0% 3% 20% 13% n.a. 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% EuropeAmericasJKTChinaIndiaOther AsiaOther % total volume growthCAGR 2020/10 (%) Source: Deutsche Bank; BP Statistical Review of world energy Source: Deutsche Bank; BP Statistical Review of world energy China and India both certainly
20、 hold significant potential Considering Chinas demand potential a country whose coal market is equivalent to the global LNG market seven times over - there are clear reasons to our minds for believing that LNG is set to show healthy growth. Not least is the Governments desire to gasify the economy a
21、nd carry gas share of the energy mix from c4% in 2010 to 10% by 2020. Assuming an economy that grows at c.7% p.a. over the decade our analysis of the different sources of gas supply (piped imports, indigenous conventional and shale) suggests that by 2020 China could easily require c60mtpa of LNG. Th
22、is is despite our somewhat aggressive assumption that China will meet its official shale objective by 2020 of producing c60-100bcm of gas from shale from verging on nothing today. Similarly, our analysis of Indias gas markets suggests significant potential for growth. Over the past two decades gas d
23、emand has expanded by 8% p.a. With few new indigenous sources of gas and the giant Reliance/BP KG6 field suffering significant delivery issues there are certainly robust short term arguments for a surge in LNG LNG demand accelerated over the last decade and has expanded at a compound 7% over the pas
24、t 20 years Growth has been from existing but also the emergence of new markets The shape of demand growth going forwards changes with India and China accounting for almost 50% of expected market demand growth 27 August 2012 Integrated Oils European Integrated Oils Page6 Deutsche Bank AG/London deman
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