CHINA_HEALTH_CARE_SECTOR_2013_STRATEGY_&_OUTLOOK:INDUSTRY_CONSOLIDATION_POISED_TO_ACCELERATE-2013-01-04.pdf
《CHINA_HEALTH_CARE_SECTOR_2013_STRATEGY_&_OUTLOOK:INDUSTRY_CONSOLIDATION_POISED_TO_ACCELERATE-2013-01-04.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《CHINA_HEALTH_CARE_SECTOR_2013_STRATEGY_&_OUTLOOK:INDUSTRY_CONSOLIDATION_POISED_TO_ACCELERATE-2013-01-04.pdf(47页珍藏版)》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report Investment Focus January 2, 2013 Health Care RESEARCH Jessica LI, Ph.D SFC CE Ref: AWV098 John YUNG SFC CE Ref: AUB778 Industry Consolidation Poised to Accelerate China Health Care Sector: 2013 Strategy ripe for accelerated
2、 consolidation Chinese health care stocks (offshore listed) rebounded in 2012, posting a 34% gain vs. the HSIs 21% rise. Sector multiples also recovered from the mid-teens to the high teens, which we believe adequately reflects the sectors growth potential of 1520% over the next few years. We remain
3、 positive on the sustainable growth prospects of Chinas health care industry; we also think the industry is ripe for accelerated consolidation, which should benefit well-positioned sector leaders. Key trends in 2013 New health reform phase focuses on cost reductions, leading to moderated growth and
4、margin pressure. Key measures include reform of the payment system in a bid to contain escalating medical costs and prevent over-prescription, as well as increase controls over drug prices. Rising industry standards to accelerate consolidation pace. Government has been introducing more measures to r
5、aise standards for the pharmaceutical industry. Those that are unable to upgrade will be eliminated. We thus anticipate increasing pharmaceutical acquisitions. Strategically sound M less favorable government policy; stiffer competition; product development failures; price cuts; Rmb appreciation weak
6、ens competitiveness of Chinese products in international markets. CICC Research: January 2, 2013 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Contents China Health: Care Sector: 2013 Strategy US remains a drag in 2013 . 27 Trauson Holdings (00325.HK, ACCUMULATE): Domes
7、tic competition to intensify 30 Sinopharm (01099.HK, BUY): Maintain attractive growth targets despite reform uncertainties 32 Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (02607.HK, ACCUMULATE): Turnaround story in manufacturing business 35 Guangzhou Pharmaceutical (00874 HK, HOLD): Improving outlook for distribution b
8、usiness; remain cautious about WLJ 37 Concord Medical (CCM.US, BUY): Entering private hospitals for a new growth phase . 39 Appendix I: Chinese government healthcare policies . 41 Appendix II: Relative valuation summary . 42 Appendix III: Summary of NDRC drug retail ceiling price adjustments 45 CICC
9、 Research: January 2, 2013 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Figures Figure 1: Chinese health care sector outperformed the market in 2012 4 Figure 2: Chinese pharmaceutical market delivered solid growth in 2012 .4 Figure 3: Multiple expansions across the Chi
10、nese healthcare sector in 2012 .5 Figure 4: Inpatient admissions and outpatient visits saw volume surge in 2012 8 Figure 5: Inpatient and outpatient traffic and growth by hospital class .9 Figure 6: Patient traffic and beds of private hospitals only account for 10% of total 9 Figure 7: Summary of cr
11、itical illness insurance 10 Figure 8: Summary of distinctive models in China providing extra coverage to critical illnesses 11 Figure 9: Government subsidies and participants of medical insurance have increased over time .12 Figure 10: BJ model vs. Anhui model on EDL tendering 13 Figure 11: Summary
12、of latest round of EDL tender 14 Figure 12: Summary of in-progress non-EDL tenders 15 Figure 13: Summary of 2012 non-EDL tendering progress 15 Figure 14: Summary of cardiovascular interventional device tenders progress .16 Figure 15: Summary of provincial orthopedic implant tender progress 17 Figure
13、 16: Summary of provincial disposable medical consumable tender progress 17 Figure 17: Increasing concentration of Chinas top 100 pharmaceutical manufacturers .18 Figure 18: Key catalysts of Fosun Pharma in 2013 22 Figure 19: CICC estimates vs. consensus in 2012 and 2013 22 Figure 20: Income stateme
14、nt of Fosun Pharma .23 Figure 21: Key catalysts of Weigao in 2013 .24 Figure 22: Weigao 2012 and 2013 financial guidance .25 Figure 23: CICC estimates vs. consensus in 2012 and 2013 25 Figure 24: Income statement of Shandong Weigao .26 Figure 25: Key catalysts of Mindray in 2013 .28 Figure 26: Mindr
15、ay 2013 financial guidance .28 Figure 27: CICC estimates vs. consensus in 2012 and 2013 28 Figure 28: Income statement of Mindray 29 Figure 29: Key catalyst of Trauson in 2013 30 Figure 30: CICC estimates vs. consensus in 2012 and 2013 30 Figure 31: Income statement of Trauson 31 Figure 32: Key cata
16、lysts of Sinopharm in 2013 32 Figure 33: CICC estimates vs. consensus in 2H2012, 2012 and 2013 33 Figure 34: Income statement of Sinopharm .34 Figure 35: Key catalyst of SHP in 2013 35 Figure 36: CICC estimates vs. consensus in 2012 and 2013 35 Figure 37: Income statement of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals
17、 36 Figure 38: Key catalysts of GPC in 2013 37 Figure 39: GPC CICC estimates vs. consensus in 2012 and 2013 .37 Figure 40: Income statement of Guangzhou Pharmaceutical 38 Figure 41: Key catalysts of CCM in 2013 .39 Figure 42: CICC estimates vs. consensus in 2012 and 2013 39 Figure 43: Income stateme
18、nt of CCM .40 Figure 44: Ongoing/future government healthcare policies 41 Figure 45: Valuation summary of pharmaceutical distribution comparables 42 Figure 46: Valuation summary of medical device comparables .43 Figure 47: Valuation summary of pharmaceuticals comparables .44 Figure 48: Historical an
19、d upcoming NDRC drug retail ceiling price reduction45 CICC Research: January 2, 2013 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1Q2002 2Q2002 3Q2002 4Q2002 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q2003 4Q2003 1Q2004 2Q2004 3Q2004 4Q2004 1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q20
20、05 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006 3Q2006 4Q2006 1Q2007 2Q2007 3Q2007 4Q2007 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 Sales and profit (Rmb bn) -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% SalesTotal profitGrowth of salesGro
21、wth of total profit 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Jan/12 Feb/12 Mar/12 Apr/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/12 Aug/12 Sep/12 Oct/12 Nov/12 Dec/12 Heng Seng IndexH-share healthcare -14% 6%7% 8% 8%9% 10% 12% 15%15% 17% 23% 33% 41% 64% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Real Estate I.T. Utilit
22、ies Healthcare Insurance MSCI China Capital Goods Banks Energy Materials Transportation Telcos Cons. Disc. Cons. Strap. Div. Financials EPS revisionP/E expansionYTD returnYear-to-date China Health: Care Sector: 2013 Strategy MSCI China healthcare +23% vs. MSCI Chinas +15% finishing the year as a top
23、 four performer, due to its defensive nature and relatively visible growth potential. Strong 1H results and eased pricing risks during the year helped further restore investor confidence. The sector gave back some gains post 3Q earnings reporting, as the market refocused its attention on ongoing pri
24、cing and margin pressure. Forward P/E multiples for MSCI healthcare exited the 2011 trough of 15x, and reached 20x by year-end, which we believe mostly reflects the sectors growth potential over the next few years. Each sub-sector enjoyed multiple expansions: Pharmaceutical distribution expanded mul
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- CHINA_HEALTH_CARE_SECTOR_2013_STRATEGY_ amp_OUTLOOK INDUSTRY_CONSOLIDATION_POISED_TO_ACCELERATE 2013
链接地址:https://www.31doc.com/p-3759206.html