Goldman Sachs-Six factors for further upside; stay.pdf
《Goldman Sachs-Six factors for further upside; stay.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《Goldman Sachs-Six factors for further upside; stay.pdf(30页珍藏版)》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、January 13, 2010 China: Metals stay positive Six factors driving further outperformance (1) There is potentially more demand upside in the coastal area (main consumption region) as the OECD recovery continues, on top of property/ infrastructure-led FAI strength. The GS Global ECS Research team expec
2、ts advanced economy 2010E yoy GDP growth to reach 2.1% vs. -3.1% in 2009E. (2) A crackdown on small mines, a key supply anchor, could intensify in the near term with the Chinese New Year in February and the Peoples Congress in March, when local governments typically add an additional layer of safety
3、. (3) Another supply anchor, railway bottlenecks, could worsen, as key route Daqin became congested in 4Q09. Currently, the daily demand for wagons in Taiyuan Railway Bureau vs. fulfillment is 2.5:1 vs. historical norm 1.5:1. (4) We see higher price and earnings upside potential as the coal-vs.-oil
4、ratio (on a heat-equivalent basis) of 25% is still close to the mid-cycle of 26% (vs. peak of 35%). As oil demand is largely driven by OECD (GS forecast US$90/bbl for 2010E), we believe coals relative value attractiveness provides downside protection even if China does impose macro tightening on “ov
5、erheating” concerns. We raise our 2010E spot forecast by 7% to Rmb800/t from a prior Rmb750/t on higher demand and import forecasts. We raise 2010E-2011E earnings by 6%-28% for the thermal equities. (5) Further multiple expansion is possible, in our view. P/E multiples are still within one standard
6、deviation, 58% below peak. Vs. global peers, China is trading at an average 14% discount. Vs. market index, coal equities tend to trade at a premium in an upcycle and the current premium of 7% is at the low end vs. an average of 13%. (6) Potential M we see potential 10% volume upside for 2013. We ra
7、ise our 12-month target price by 12% to HK$19 on higher price assumptions (3) Shenhua Energy: Ownership of railway/port increases its competitive advantage in the emerging railway bottleneck. We believe potential parent asset injection could boost volume/earnings by 33%/12% in 2010E. We raise our 12
8、-month target price by 4% to HK$50 on higher prices. Large spread between spot/contract benefits contract hike 465 525 428 420 625 930 1,010 600 2010E: 800 810 380 270 360 420 475 523 2010E: 600 260 300 340 380 420 460 500 540 580 620 660 700 740 780 820 860 900 940 980 1,020 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oc
9、t-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 (Rmb/t, incl. VAT) Qinhuangdao coal spot price Qinhuangdao coal benchmark contract price Diff= 125 Diff= 158 Diff= 60 Diff= 85 Diff= 1
10、05 Diff= 287 20 40 55 48 77 90 Coal s relative value to oil provides downside support as OECD oil demand continues to recover 25% 48% 37% 15% 34% 51% 15% 17% 25% 14% 17% 30% Average = 26% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% May-96 Nov-96 May-97 Nov-97 May-98 Nov-98 May-99 Nov-99 May-00 Nov-00
11、 May-01 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 Coal price as % of WTI crude oil price on heat equivalent basis Oil: $36/bbl Coal: $63/t Oil: $17/bbl Coal: $28/t Oil: $35/bbl Coal: $25/t Oil: $38/bbl Coal: $26/t Oil: $59/
12、bbl Coal: $39/t Oil: $10/bbl Coal: $23/t Current Oil: $81/bbl Coal: $96/t Oil: $35/bbl Coal: $81/t Oil: $88/bbl Coal: $125/t We prefer YCM, also positive on Shenhua and China Coal Share price(HK$)/ Upside% GS rating 12-m TP/ upside %HK$50 26% HK$19 22% HK$27 44% Target P/E (base case)17 X17 X14 X Po
13、tential peak multipleHK$7 20 XHK$3 20 XHK$416 X (1) Multiple expansion HK$57 18% HK$22 18% HK$31 14% GS 2010E EPS (base case)2.721.111.92 Potential EPS upside (parent asset injection, mine acquisition, etc) HK$53.06HK$21.27HK$12.03 + (2) Earnings upsideHK$55 13% HK$21 14% HK$285% (1)+(2) Total % re-
14、ratingHK$12 30%HK$532%HK$520% Bluesky scenario HK$62 56% HK$24 54% HK$32 64% Shenhua 1088.HK China Coal 1898.HK Yanzhou Coal 1171.HK BuyBuyBuy Key risks include unexpected government price control. Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Song Shen +852-2978-1131 | Goldman Sachs (Asia)
15、 L.L.C. Joanna Mak +852-2978-1276 | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
16、report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as
17、research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research 迅嘉机构内参 - http:/ January 13, 2010 China: Metals growth accelerating.” After small mine consolidation, we believe higher supply-side concentration would boost bargaining power for coal producers when the
18、small mines share of supply in Shanxi drops to 30% from 50%. Exhibit 13: A series of coal mine explosions have triggered local governments to intensify small mine crackdown, which would further tighten the supply Recent coal mine accidents in China DateProvinceCityMineDeath toll 8-Sep-09HenanPingdin
19、gshanXinhua No. 4 56 21-Nov-09HeilongjiangHegang Xinxing108 22-Nov-09HunanChenxiGuojiawan15 27-Dec-09GuizhouXingrenZhenxing9 27-Dec-09ShanxiJiexiuDonggou12 5-Jan-10HunanTanjiashanLisheng25 Source: Factiva, Goldman Sachs Research. 迅嘉机构内参 - http:/ January 13, 2010 China: Metals a controlling stake in
20、11 of them (60% ownership) has already been acquired under Jin Haiyang Coal, which has about 9mt designed capacity and a 500mt coal reserve. China Coal s parent has acquired a 60% stake in Jin Haiyang Coal for Rmb3 bn, implying a Rmb10/t reserve purchase price compared with China Coals current EV/t
21、of Rmb25/t. Our channel checks indicate that the 27 local mines could have 20mt production capacity and a 1.5 bn tonne reserve. If injected into the listco, China Coal could see volume and reserve enhancements of 14% and 19%, respectively (Exhibit 26). We estimate that China Coals asset injection co
22、uld potentially enhance 2012E earnings by 11% and the current target price by 11%, as shown in Exhibit 26. On Yanzhou Coal, we believe the long-awaited domestic mine acquisition, Yushuwan mine in Shaanxi, could come through this year, potentially adding volume of 4mt, boosting both 2010E earnings an
23、d the current target price by 4% (Exhibit 26). 迅嘉机构内参 - http:/ January 13, 2010 China: Metals thermal and coking)748392103China Coal (self-produced; thermal and coking)7%13%11%11% Domestic67829099Domestic10%22%10%10% Of which: Domestic contract55657280Of which: Domestic contract4%19%10%11% Of which:
24、 Domestic spot13171819Of which: Domestic spot45%32%10%4% % contract81%80%80%81% % spot19%20%20%19% Export7124Export-17%-80%48%84% Gross profit per tonne (Rmb/t)20082009E2010E2011EYoy change20082009E2010E2011E Shenhua - overall coal220 215 271 280 Shenhua - overall coal25%-2%26%3% Yanzhou Coal - over
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- Goldman Sachs-Six factors for further upside; stay Sachs Six upside
链接地址:https://www.31doc.com/p-3765753.html