GS-Commodity Watch-breaking out to the upside-091110.pdf
《GS-Commodity Watch-breaking out to the upside-091110.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《GS-Commodity Watch-breaking out to the upside-091110.pdf(21页珍藏版)》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、November 10, 2009 Commodities: Commodity Watch Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 1 November 10, 2009 Commodities Commodity Watch Breaking out to the upside Improving commodity and economic data have boosted sentiment Commodity returns as reflected in the Enhanced S +2
2、3.4% ytd through October 30, 2009 Petroleum 8.7% from September 30, 2009 through October 30, 2009; +30.5% ytd through October 30, 2009 Energy prices and returns have increased markedly over the past month as WTI crude oil prices have broken out of the $65-75/bbl range they have traded in since June
3、of this year, reaching above $80/bbl in recent days. The catalyst for this rally has been, in our view, long-anticipated signs of improvement in oil fundamentals in the context of generally constructive economic data, which boosted sentiment. In particular, US total oil inventories have declined sha
4、rply over the past month, declining 20 million barrels since the beginning of October as compared to an average decline of 5.3 million barrels (see Exhibit 1). Although US total oil demand remains lackluster, distillate demand has begun to trend higher, contributing to the inventory draw, with US di
5、stillate inventories declining 4.4 million barrels over the past month compared to a 2.2 million barrel average draw (see Exhibit 2). 迅嘉机构内参 - http:/ November 10, 2009 Commodities: Commodity Watch Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 5 Exhibit 1: US total hydrocarbon sto
6、cks declined sharply in October Million barrels Exhibit 2: US distillate demand has begun to trend higher Thousand b/d (4-week moving average) 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 20092008200720062005 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,200 4,400 4,600 4,800 JanFebMarAprMayJu
7、nJulAugSepOctNovDec 2009200820072006 Source: DOE. Source: DOE. However, largely driving the tighter US inventories has been supply-side factors as weak refinery margins have kept refinery utilization low and, more importantly, strong emerging market demand has pulled supply elsewhere, reducing US pe
8、troleum imports (see Exhibit 3). Specifically, Chinese oil demand continues to surge, driven by strong economic activity. Both Chinese real GDP and industrial output remained strong in 3Q09 while the latest PMI figure marked a 15-month high. The robust economic activity has helped propel oil demand
9、back above pre-recession levels and fears of a sharp decline in demand, as the impact of the fiscal stimulus in China is mostly behind us at this point, have so far been unwarranted (see Exhibit 4). Exhibit 3: US crude oil imports have been low Thousand b/d (4-week moving average) Exhibit 4: as surg
10、ing demand elsewhere has attracted the oil Chinese Industrial output % change yoy (left axis); Chinese oil products demand % change yoy (right axis) 7,700 8,200 8,700 9,200 9,700 10,200 10,700 11,200 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 2009200820072006 0 5 10 15 20 25 Feb-06Aug-06Feb-07Aug-07Feb-08
11、Aug-08Feb-09Aug-09 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Industrial Output Oil Products demand Source: DOE. Source: Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs and GS Global ECS Research. 迅嘉机构内参 - http:/ November 10, 2009 Commodities: Commodity Watch Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strate
12、gy Research 6 In particular, Chinese total implied product demand increased 1 million b/d in September, lifting 3Q09 demand growth to 600 thousand b/d above last year (see Exhibit 5). Although the strong year-over-year increase in petroleum products demand is primarily driven by demand for so called
13、 “other” products such as naphtha, asphalt and petroleum coke rather than transportation fuels, we believe that this is consistent with the strong activity in the petrochemical and metals sector as well as the rapid expansion of the Chinese road network (see Exhibit 6). Our economists outlook for th
14、e Chinese economy remains constructive, which supports our view that demand for these industrial-related petroleum products will likely remain strong, providing support to global oil demand. Exhibit 5: Chinese total product demand in 3Q09 was more than 0.6 million b/d above last year s levels Thousa
15、nd b/d Exhibit 6: A large proportion of Chinese petroleum demand is driven by “other“ products Year-on-year changes in product demand in thousand b/d 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 20092008200720062005 -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 100
16、0 1200 Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09 OtherGasolineDieselFuel OilJet Fuel Strong demand for other petroleum products Source: Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs and GS Global ECS Research. Source: Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs and GS Gl
17、obal ECS Research. Going forward, we continue to expect generally positive OECD economic indicators will boost oil demand in the developed economies, reinforcing strong emerging market demand. Although US unemployment has climbed to a 26-year high, we find that it has little relationship with oil de
18、mand in the United States (see our September 8, 2009 Energy Weekly) but rather, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Industrial Production (IP) growth rates. In contrast to the disappointing unemployment number, US PCE has steadily improved since the trough in December and our economists
19、 expect further increases in 2010. Further, US IP was stronger than expected in September and the US ISM Production Index for October more recently surged. Thus, the key drivers of US oil demand remain supportive. In addition, positive surprises in German IP for September as well as in the European
20、manufacturing surveys are also constructive. On net, we maintain our year-end target of $85/bbl for WTI crude oil. Further, as spare OPEC production capacity is likely absorbed over the next year in the context of non-OPEC production declines and further expected improvement in demand, we maintain t
21、hat prices will move higher through 2010, rising to $95/bbl by year end. 迅嘉机构内参 - http:/ November 10, 2009 Commodities: Commodity Watch Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 7 Natural gas -9.6% from September 30, 2009 through October 30, 2009; -27.0% ytd through October 3
22、0, 2009 Natural gas returns declined substantially in October owing to a steep upward slope in the forward curve that weighed on roll returns, despite relatively range-bound prices at a significantly higher level than in September (see Exhibit 7). Sustaining higher price levels was substantially col
23、der-than-average weather in October as well as sequential tightening in the weather-adjusted balance (see Exhibit 8). Exhibit 7: Natural gas has been trading at a higher level relative to earlier in the summer $/mmBtu Exhibit 8: The weather-adjusted balance continued to tighten in October Bcf 2.00 2
24、.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 06-Aug-0919-Aug-0901-Sep-0914-Sep-0927-Sep-0910-Oct-0923-Oct-0905-Nov-09 NYMEX natural gas Appalachian coal -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09 YOY change in the nominal build YOY change in the weather-adjusted build Source: GS Glob
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- GS-Commodity Watch-breaking out to the upside-091110 GS Commodity Watch breaking upside 091110
链接地址:https://www.31doc.com/p-3766062.html