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1、CONTENTS Error! No text of specified style in document. June 2011 | .au | www.ibisworld.co.uk | IBISWorld Industry Report C1115-GL Global Sugar Manufacturing June 2011 About This Industry . 2 Industry Definition . 2 Main Activities . 2 Similar Industries 2 Additional Resources 2 Industry Performan
2、ce 3 Executive Summary 3 Key External Drivers . 3 Current Performance 4 Industry Outlook 8 Industry Life Cycle 11 Products industry revenue is forecast increase by 21.1% to $105.6 billion. Fluctuating production and prices World sugar prices and industry revenue are closely tied to changes in world
3、sugar supply. In the past five years, sugar production has fluctuated in response to weather conditions and the price of sugar relative to ethanol. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global sugar production declined by 19 million tons during 2009 due to adverse weather conditions
4、in the worlds leading sugar producing regions. India, China and Pakistan account for up to 30% of global sugar production; thus global sugar reserves were severely depleted as the output from these countries fell by 33% between 2008 and 2009 due to bad weather and other volatility factors. Productio
5、n fluctuations across this region have increased industry volatility by forcing countries to shift between net exporting and net importing. Government production policies have put further strain on global sugar supplies, such as the EUs lowering of production quotas in late 2005 as part of a sugar r
6、eform package. Rising energy prices have also prompted supply problems due to growing demand for alternative fuel sources such as ethanol, which is derived from sugarcane. There has been increasing pressure on global sugar supplies as more sugarcane has been diverted to ethanol production because th
7、e global price of crude oil has risen by an annualized 7.6% since 2006. These factors have been intensified by government policies to increase the production and use of ethanol, especially in Brazil where ethanol is a primary source of energy. The Brazilian Government was the first to implement poli
8、cies in the 1970s to reduce their dependence on oil imports. Brazilian demand for ethanol is supported through regulations such as those relating to blending gasoline with ethanol and a lower excise tax for ethanol. Brazil is now the worlds largest producer of both sugar and ethanol, but ethanol pro
9、duction has outstripped the countrys sugar production. The increase in Brazilian ethanol production has caused concern for dwindling global sugar stocks and excess demand, which puts upward pressure on prices. This has been intensified by many countries, such as China and Thailand, following suit by
10、 passing their own mandatory or voluntary blend targets for ethanol and gasoline. In response to these factors, world sugar prices have fluctuated substantially over the past five years. Disruption to global supplies sent sugar prices soaring to record highs in 2009 and early 2010, followed by a ser
11、ies of steep fluctuations for the remainder of 2010. For example, raw sugar prices reached 30 cents per pound in February 2010, fell as low as 14 cents per pound in mid-2010, and soared back up to 33 cents per pound by the end of the year. Overall, prices have increased by an annualized 12.5% over t
12、he past five years, to 29 cents per pound. However, world prices do not apply directly to all markets. For example, WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Sugar Manufacturing June 2011 5 domestic sugar prices for importing markets, such as the United States and the EU, tend to be higher than world sugar prices. T
13、hese countries and regions generally have higher production costs and impose import duties and quotas that boost domestic prices. The cost of manufacturing sugar from sugar beet is higher than that from sugarcane, which can also increase domestic prices in beet sugar producing countries. For 2011, t
14、he world sugar price is forecast to remain high in real terms due to rising sugar consumption and low global stocks. However, prices are expected to decline over the year as production increases and global sugar stocks start to replenish. Global sugar production is expected to increase by 4.7% as fa
15、rmers across the world increase sugarcane yields in response to high world prices. Production over the five years through 2011 will increase by an annualized 2.0% to reach 167.9 million tons. Brazilian output will increase by 8.0% to account for over 40% of global sugar production. Higher production
16、 is also expected for Thailand, Indonesia, India and China. However, the volatile production swings of the past few years will continue to have a lingering negative effect on global sugar reserves as the stock-to-use ratio declines to 34.3% in 2011, from 34.9% in 2010. Growing world sugar trade Over
17、 the five years through 2011, the volume of sugar traded is estimated to grow by an average 1.4% per year, with roughly 34.0% of total production being traded across the globe. Export revenue has increased at a higher annualized rate of 7.6% over the past five years, to total $29.6 billion in 2011.
18、Export values have soared in the past two years due to high world sugar prices. The largest exporting country is Brazil, accounting for over 40.0% of sugar exports by volume and 28.0% of export revenue. Other factors that have intensified supply problems include changes to the EU sugar policy in 200
19、6, which changed the importance of sugar-trading countries. Export volumes from the EU are estimated to decline by 18.5% per annum over the five years through 2011. The drop in export volumes is largely due to the reduced sugar quotas from 2006, which resulted in a drop of export volumes. This assis
20、ted the growth in sugar export volumes from other producers over the period. The EU went from being the second-largest exporter in 2006 to the fourth-largest exporter in 2009. Various importing countries have increased their sugar self-sufficiency. For example, Russia and China looked to reduce thei
21、r sugar imports and increase their domestic production. However, this has been partially offset by rising import volumes to the United States, Mexico and Cuba. In 2005 and 2006, the USDA increased tariff-rate quotas for sugar imported into the United States to compensate for reduced domestic sugar s
22、upply following damage to the industry from hurricanes. Imports increased by 47.1% and 27.4% in 2005 and 2006 respectively. In addition, there has been growth in the export of sugar from Brazil to the Middle East and North Africa. Diverging consumption and participation Industry participation is div
23、erging, with declining numbers of sugar manufacturers in Europe due to quota reductions but rising participation across China due to foreign investment. Industry numbers have fluctuated in Brazil over the past five years; enterprise and establishment numbers rose as land availability increased but t
24、he global economic crisis dampened investment due to higher borrowing costs. Moreover, the current spike in global sugar prices is expected to increase industry participants for this year but it will not be enough to counter declines in the number of sugar manufacturing companies over the previous f
25、our years. This will result in an annualized 0.4% decline in employment. Sugar consumption is expected to grow over the five years through 2011, though consumption patterns will differ between regions. In developed countries, the use of sweetener substitutes has grown as consumers have become more h
26、ealth conscious. This has dampened demand for sugar, leaving per capita consumption steady or at a slight decline. However, sugar consumption has been supported by income growth and the westernization of diets across Asia. This will be demonstrated by the expected rise in per capita sugar consumptio
27、n for both China and South Korea over the five years through 2011. WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Sugar Manufacturing June 2011 6 Brazilian ethanol production Year Ethanol production* Units Growth % change 2004-05 15.4 N/C 2005-06 15.9 3.2 2006-07 17.7 11.3 2007-08 22.5 27.1 2008-09 27.5 22.2 SOURCE: UNIC
28、A- BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION NOTE: *GIGALITERS Per capita sugar consumption Country 2002-03 Kilograms 2007-08 Kilograms Average annualized growth Percentage Australia 58.0 58.4 0.2 EU27 38.7 38.0 -0.4 US 30.5 31.5 0.6 Japan 19.3 18.3 -1.1 South Korea 23.6 28.6 3.9 China 8.4 10.2 4.0 S
29、OURCE: OECD Sugar production volumes Year Brazil Million Metric Tons Growth % change India Million Metric Tons Growth % change 2004-05 28.2 6.8 14.2 -6.0 2005-06 26.9 -4.6 21.1 48.6 2006-07 31.5 17.1 30.8 46.0 2007-08 31.6 0.3 28.6 -7.1 2008-09 31.8 0.6 16.0 -44.1 2009-10 36.4 14.5 19.5 21.9 SOURCE:
30、 US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Sugar Manufacturing June 2011 7 World sugar and oil prices Year Sugar price Cents per Pound Change Percentage Oil price Dollars Change Percentage 2004 10.3 2.0 41.5 33.4 2005 12.5 21.4 56.4 35.9 2006 18.4 47.2 66.1 17.2 2007 14.9 -19.0 72.3 9.4
31、2008 15.6 4.7 99.6 37.8 2009 15.2 -2.6 65.0 -34.7 SOURCE: US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Sugar Manufacturing June 2011 8 Industry Outlook Over the next five years, the Global Sugar Manufacturing industry will be shaped by issues such as changing market structures, rising deman
32、d for renewable energies, diverging global sugar consumption and government policies. The restructuring of the large EU sugar market and the dominant position established by Brazil in both sugar and ethanol production will continue to influence the geographic distribution of sugar production. Increa
33、sing consumer acceptance of ethanol as a gasoline replacement and government mandates for ethanol use will increase demand for sugarcane for ethanol production and influence sugar prices. The production of ethanol by sugar manufacturers is expected to increase the capital requirements for industry p
34、articipants. Demand for sugar for food consumption will decline further in developed countries but will grow in developing countries, thus continuing to shift the geographic demand for sugar. Government policies and a push for greater efficiency are expected to cause the industry to become more conc
35、entrated in some of the largest sugar-producing countries. Mixed performance Production is expected to grow over the next five years as farmers expand sugarcane plantations, driven by the allure of high sugar prices. According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Scien
36、ces, sugar production is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2011, to 177.3 million tons, due to increased output from leading producing countries such as Brazil, India, Thailand, Pakistan and China. This will replenish global sugar stocks, as indicated by the expected increase in the 2012 stocks-to-use rat
37、io. However, the continued rise in global production could lead to oversupply, thus following traditional cyclical patterns of high prices and low production followed by excess supply and declining prices. Over the next five years, sugar production is expected to grow by an annualized 2.2%, to reach
38、 187.4 million tons in 2016. However, production conditions are expected to vary between regions. For example, EU production volumes are expected stabilize or decline marginally as the industry concludes a period of adjustment following the reforms introduced in 2006. EU sugar manufacturers who surv
39、ived this restructure will demonstrate greater efficiency and global competitiveness. Production in Brazil will be affected by the rate at which the Brazilian Government opens up previously unavailable land to cane plantations. Moreover, Chinese sugar production is forecast to grow strongly, aided b
40、y controls on the production and sale of artificial sweeteners and growing domestic demand. Finally, the Middle East is expected to increase the amount of refined sugar produced for export. However, adverse weather conditions in large sugar producing countries can have a significant effect on world
41、production and prices. Any unseasonal or unusual weather conditions will increase industry revenue volatility. Global demand for sugar is expected to increase over the next five years. Rising incomes and population growth in developing countries, such as China and Pakistan, will boost sugar consumpt
42、ion and offset lower demand for sugar in developed countries. Sugar consumption will also be affected by the relative price of substitutes, such as alternative and artificial sweeteners. Moreover, rising health consciousness will have a mixed impact on industry operators. On the one hand, rising pub
43、lic concern about obesity and the move towards healthy eating could limit growth for the industry. On the other hand, the rising popularity of organic food could benefit some producers that promote raw sugar as a natural product and safer to consume in moderation compared with artificial sweeteners.
44、 Global production is expected to exceed consumption over the next five years, which will spark a substantial decline in global sugar prices and thus in industry revenue. Over the next five years, industry revenue is expected to decrease by an annualized 10.4% to reach $60.8 billion in 2016. Current
45、 price spikes are expected to end in 2012, with global sugar prices expected to fall by approximately 28.0% next year, followed further declines of 24.0% and 14.1% in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Consequently, industry revenue is will fall during this period, though this will be limited slightly by g
46、rowing consumption and increased demand for ethanol. Sugar supplies will increase further and prices will decline more if ethanol production leans more towards other feedstocks, such as corn, molasses and cassava, reducing the demand for sugar. Moreover, sugar commodity cycles, weather conditions an
47、d movements in oil prices and the US dollar could cause prices to become increasingly volatile. WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Global Sugar Manufacturing June 2011 9 Expanding ethanol demand World sugar prices will be dependent on changes in the demand for sugar-based ethanol over the next five years. Ethanol pr
48、oduction is expected to increase as biofuels attract increasing attention as an alternative energy source due to rising oil prices. Demand for ethanol will also be driven by government concerns about crude oil supply, the environment, and developing new market opportunities for agriculture. This wil
49、l assist some industry expansion. For example, the use of sugar for ethanol production will benefit from Indias mandate for oil firms to sell E10 (blend of 10% ethanol, 90% gasoline) fuel. This is expected to double Indias ethanol output and consumption. However, demand for sugar for ethanol production could be limited by rising public concern over the environmental impact of biofuel production, such as the clearing of forests to plant crops. Demand could be further restricted by concerns over global food security as
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