HSBC_TECHNOLOGY_DAY_2013:KEY_TAKEAWAYS-2013-02-28.pdf
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1、 abc Global Research Takeaways from investor meetings with 18 technology companies in HK and SG this week Key themes: Smartphones/tablet growth remains in focus; while traditional PC players adjust gameplans Apple supply chain visibility limited; LCD datapoints suggest strength continues We publish
2、our quick summary notes and key takeaways. Following two days of investor meetings with a wide range of technology companies serving nearly every major technology vertical we publish our conference summary notes and key takeaways. The search for growth. Everyone agrees that smartphones and tablets a
3、re the key growth drivers for 2013, but in reviewing all of our notes, we view the most common theme was a slow PC market forcing many traditional PC-centric plays to look for ways to: 1) improve product mix (eg twisting two-stage hinges for touch notebooks, resolution upgrades for LCD, adoption of
4、fiber/metal casings); or 2) diversify (eg into tablets/servers/smartphones, faster growing emerging regions); or 3) increase attachment rates for peripherals (eg keyboards for tablets), or 4) simply attempt to gain market share. Commoditization accelerating. Most agree that hardware differentiation
5、is limited and thus end product price elasticity will be the key this year. Downstream hardware margins are expected to come under pressure and there are increased fears that the supply chain may have to absorb the price pressure too. Further, with so many new products launching with little differen
6、tiation, we fear a shake-out phase to come in the mid- year which may possibly result in downward revisions. Apple supply chain capricious. Visibility within the Apple supply chain remains limited at best. iPad Mini remains the one key area of strength. There are also some fears continued soft iPhon
7、e builds will reverberate longer throughout the supply chain. LCD datapoints encourging. Sell-through during Chinese New Year appeared respectable with ending inventory generally lean. Commentary from LCD driver supply chains appeared solid with both Orise (“2013 to see 40% y-o-y revenue growth“) an
8、d Vanguard (“1Q tracking inline to better, with upside to margins and improved visibility into 2Q13“) most optimistic. Telecoms, Media covered by Carrie Liu, Analyst, HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited, .tw, +8862 6631 2864) Management is guiding FY2013 keyboard segment (36% of total reven
9、ue) to grow at 10-15% y-o-y, image (24% of total revenue) segment to grow 20% y-o-y and power supply segment (35% of total revenue), to see 10-15% y-o-y growth. Overall the company expects revenue to increase 10-15% y-o-y in FY2013 with margin to expand to more than 16% on better product mix. Compan
10、y guided 1Q13 revenue to increase 13-18% y-o-y. Outlook by products for FY2013 Keyboard: tablet keyboard segment will be growing from one customer/one model to four customers/12 models this year. Sales contribution is about high single digits this year. Attachment rate is expected to grow to 8% this
11、 year from 3% last year. ASP is 4-5x vs. conventional NB with gross margin in the range of 16-24%. LED backlit keyboards will be another growth driver coming from ultrabooks and high-end NBs, in addition to market share gains. Image: Go Pro is expected to double the volume this year, which would acc
12、ount for 10% of sales with margin at 13-15%. Chicony is also moving from notebook camera module to tablets and smartphones, although contribution is marginal this year. Power supply: growth will be coming from new end market and new customer additions. New end markets include server, TV, printer, ST
13、B, and tablet. Chicony will be supplying to Dell from this year and adding a new customer on game console front. Capacity: taking a more cautious view on Chongqing now due to tightness of labor supply. Majority of the capacity will be located on Donguan, Wujiang and Suzhou. HSBC Asia Tech Day 2013 T
14、akeaways from investor meetings with 18 technology companies in HK and SG this week Key themes: Smartphones/tablet growth remains in focus, while traditional PC players adjust gameplans Apple supply chain visibility limited, while LCD datapoints suggest strength continues 3 Telecoms, Media there are
15、 640 employee right now of which 85% are engineers. Although most of Insydes expenses come from employee wages, the company is determined to maintain its size for now since it is still making money and it wants to be ready and wait for the transition from ARM. Insyde also mentioned a new business op
16、portunity, which is the latest device that applies for two different OS. The company also does Android customization for Acer and Lenovo. Insydes dividend policy is a 80% payout ratio, cash only. It is a cash-rich company with about TWD1 billion on hand. In the future, the company is looking for mer
17、ger opportunities, targets are Android and app companies. The company also aims to keep its R covered by Carrie Liu, Analyst, HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited, .tw, +8862 6631 2864) Management believes that the key earnings driver in 2013 are positive mix shifts, improving utilizations a
18、nd margin expansion. In terms of design trend for 2013, the company expects notebook to move towards a hybrid structure (fiber + magnesium + aluminium + stamping + plastic) as touch/ultrabooks will require stronger mechanical strength. Ju Teng believes that they are the only supplier that can offer
19、a one stop shop solution. Management believes low-end tablets will see stronger growth in 2013 and will adopt plastic solution. Ju Teng is supplying to Google, Acer and Asus. ASP is lower than NB but similar margins. Tablet was about 5% of sales last year and would account for 10-15% this year. Ju T
20、eng will be pushing fiber material (composite material of plastic and carbon fiber) more aggressively this year. Management said that fiber material ASP will be higher than plastic casing but is competitive to light metal. Dell, Lenovo and Sony are the early adopters. Ju Teng is likely to design in
21、for tablet and smartphone models based on composite material. In terms of order, management believes notebook is unlikely to see strong growth but shipment might start picking up in 2Q13. New order wins will be a key driver for Ju Teng. The company will be supplying magnesium casing to Dell and HPs
22、commercial models, Acers S7 and Microsoft Surface. Management said that it is not planning significant capacity expansion in 1H13 while the capex for 2H13 will be dependent on demand. In terms of margins, management stated that plastic is at less than 12%, metal is at 20-25%. The company commented t
23、hat they are seeing limited pricing pressure for both plastic and light metal. In terms of utilization, the company said that plastic is now at 70% going to 72-73% in 2Q13, metal is now 70% going to 80% in 2Q13 and fiber is now 50% going to 60% in 2Q13. Kinsus Interconnect (3189 TT, N(V), TWD93.5, T
24、P TWD90; covered by Tse-Yong Yao, Analyst, HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited, tse-.tw, +886 2 6631 2861) Management stated that leading edge 28nm/20nm process nodes are still the key focus for this year - high K metal gate, 3D transistor has no impact on substrate while line width/spacing
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